[Resurrection]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'W')e've all been through this discussion before.

Personally, I see a gradual, but steady erosion of our standard of living due to Peak Oil in America. Someday, we'll wake up and realize that LA or Houston will have the same standard of living as Mexico City does now. It will suck for most of the people, but we'll still think we're better off than those cities that are more like Lagos, Nigeria or Lima, Peru.

-IanC

[BastardSquad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '\')
You feel that what is now under way in the poor countries somehow is not that big a deal? How bad does it have to get, and how fast does it have to get that bad?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')his post is for all those who keep crying, "We are two years post peak, where's the problems?"

[evilgenius]

Don't forget to think as if you had power and wanted to keep it. What would you do to keep power as events transpired? You might even create a few 'events' to speed the process along so that what you needed for yourself was guaranteed to be there when you needed it.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Things have changed. We're more reliant on oil, deeper in debt and more overpopulated.

I'm sure that will make the situation better.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'I')f you asked half of the people on this board 2 years ago what the would would look like now assuming 2 years post peak, they would have said that the world would be in shambles.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'I')f you asked half of the people on this board 2 years ago what the would would look like now assuming 2 years post peak, they would have said that the world would be in shambles.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jester', '
')Where does so much of the energy come from, worldwide? Oil.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'T')heir might be a Bigfoot, and their might be aliens but its up the those who make the claim to justify them and defend them under scrutiny.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'I')f you asked half of the people on this board 2 years ago what the would would look like now assuming 2 years post peak, they would have said that the world would be in shambles.

[Smudger]

Plateau for a few years then steady increase in fall away.

Third world countries will take biggest hit, plus the US as the 28% use vs 5% population ratio will simply not be able to be maintained

Still, to my mind (especially if oil price stays high i.e. no drop in demand yet via recession etc), time for substancial switch to alternative power sources. e.g. my house will be generating c.10% over electricity by the end of 2008 and I will be in a car doing c.65-75 mpg (currently c.34mpg up from previous 24mpg). with own borehole as well will hopefully be one less person draining resources. Strongly believe population as a whole are able to half oil usage with a year with relative ease if required. that's a spare 40m barrells a day people - some level of cushion for the downswing and importantly a great buyer of time

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'Y')ou are saying that most people here believe that several years will go by before we even begin to feel the direct effects of PO?

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'Y')ou are saying that most people here believe that several years will go by before we even begin to feel the direct effects of PO?

[TheDude]

Fantastic link, Monte. Did any of you dumbasses actually read the story? An excerpt should wet your appetite:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')epal: Gasoline and diesel shortages are crippling the country. In July, the Kathmandu valley was hit with its worst energy crisis in history as the state-owned petroleum importer and distributor stopped supplies to gas stations entirely. Fuming taxi drivers subsequently parked their cars before the heart of the Nepalese government center to protest the shortfall. The Nepal Oil Company (NOC) has been facing cuts from its sole supplier, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), because of mounting debts owing to Nepal's subsidies, which force NOC to sell fuel below cost.

Pakistan: Chronic power shortages have led to riots in the streets in Karachi. At one point this summer, the gap between supply and demand reached a peak of 3,000 megawatts (MW). Due to chronic underinvestment in energy infrastructure, the country's Planning Commission estimates that its shortfall in oil supply will grow to 3.2 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE) in 2010, and 21.5 TOE in 2020.

Iraq: Iraq has suffered from an acute shortage of oil products since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. This week brought a report that Iraq's electricity grid could collapse any day now, due to sabotage, rising demand, fuel shortages, and provincial officials who are disconnecting their local power stations from the national grid (presumably in the interest of self-preservation). Constant attacks on pipelines have made it impossible for Iraq to meet its internal need for gasoline, forcing it to rely on imports to the tune of 1.3 million gallons per day. At the same time, it is being forced to reduce subsidies on gasoline in order to meet IMF debt-reduction requirements, even as it struggles with 60% unemployment and rampant poverty as well as chronic grid blackouts. Oil smuggling and a robust black market have sprung up to take advantage of an estimated 10x spread between the official subsidized prices and black market rates.

Iran: Chronic gasoline shortages have forced the government to impose rationing. Motorists can buy only 100 liters a month at the subsidized price of 1,000 riyals (about 11 cents) a liter (the cheapest gasoline in the world). Iran's program of oil subsidies--combined with sanctions from the West over its nuclear intentions--has proved disastrous, putting the government in an intense budgetary squeeze. Angry protesters torched 19 gas stations in response to the rationing in late June. Tehran currently imports about half of its gasoline, and absorbs a loss of nearly $2 per gallon on it, creating an intense drain on the national coffers. As in Iraq, rationing is expected to lead to a brisk black market.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'F')antastic link, Monte. Did any of you dumbasses actually read the story? An excerpt should wet your appetite:

[Jester]

Jbeckton...

Why do you think those countries have pushed oil subsidies?

Because the people cannot pay $3.00 a gallon. The subsidies have caused a crash to be delayed, but the cause still comes from oil prices being pushed up. The subsidies created an illusory economy. People could buy their gas cheap and keep working, as if that was the standard economy. Take the subsidies away, and they won't be able to afford fuel. It's simply delayed their crash, the subsidies did not cause it.

Fuel shortages... that can't have anything to do with peak oil right?

Oil smuggling only occurs if there is a shortage amongst the people, or in a subsidized region where it could be taken from and sold for real market value.



Do you think any of these problems would exist if the supply of good oil was high and prices low (as they would be if there was an abundance of good oil)?

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jester', '
')Fuel shortages... that can't have anything to do with peak oil right?

[keehah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '
')You cannot prove that there is not Bigfoot. I tried to break it down really simple for you but I have failed.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', ' ')I am not asking you to prove anything, just to follow your own words and justify your claim of slandering this site for what you say a erroneous site groupthink was here 2 years ago.

[TheDude]

Sorry about coming on so heavy, actually. This is such a doozy of a story.

How do you explain the decline in Light Sweet Crude? OPEC is deliberately selling crummy oil, saving the good stuff for later? Some say we've experienced a 2% decline worldwide, too. OPEC has cut shipments to Asia. Those are quite the row of red flags.

I could've posted some more apropos excerpts:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')enegal: State power company Senelec has been unable to pay for supplies of fuel for its oil-fired power stations, leading to cuts in electricity supply. China has come to its rescue with a 370 million yuan loan to fund a new distribution network, in addition to its commitment to build a 250 megawatt coal-fired power station there.

Kenya: Gasoline and diesel shortages in Nairobi are grounding industrial and personal transport alike, and price hikes appear likely.

Gambia: Shortages of gasoline and diesel are taking an economic toll across the country, with many empty petrol stations and long lines at stations that have fuel to sell--but only to customers holding coupons from Shell.