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There is no future!

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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 01:00:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', ' ')It is possible to reduce energy consumption without harming the economy and in fact, the renewable energy and efficiency industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world.

History and empirical data have yet to support that claim.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the economics literature it is … well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it.
This might explain, for instance, why there appears to be no example of a developed society that has succeeded in combining sustained reductions in energy consumption with economic growth. Mr Alan Meier, of the IEA, referred to "several countries that, for brief periods, reduced their electricity consumption or their energy consumption"—often in response to short-term supply crises—but such reductions in demand have never been sustained. This does not mean that sustained reductions in energy consumption are impossible—simply that it is yet to be demonstrated that they are possible.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 01:21:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'A')ccording to your point of view the majority of the developed world is experiencing 'die-off'. The birth rate is below replacement levels here in the UK and wealth and prosperity has never been so high. If this is die-off bring it on!

I think you need to read up on demographic transition. The drop in fertility rates in the developed world is due to a rising standard of living fueled by fossil fuels over the last 40 years. It is not a direct conscious choice. It is a short-lived decline that will not continue post-peak to drop the fertility rate in the developing countries...as assumed by those who predict a population stabilizing at 9.1 billion in 2050.

We may well try to double to 13 billion instead. If it does continues to drop post-peak, it will be from overshoot feedback.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ie-off will accelerate in the third world but it has little or no chance of ever happening in the developed world.

Yeah? What makes us immune from pandemic disease? The developed world is rife with disease and experiencing a biological drop in fertility. One out of every two people in the US will die from heart disease. Diabetes is on the rise. Cancer is rampant.

Man, didn't anyone pay attention to basic biology in school?
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby NWMossBack » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 01:54:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ne out of every two people in the US will die from heart disease. Diabetes is on the rise. Cancer is rampant.

So thats it? That's your die-off due to overshoot? We're all going to grow old and have health problems? The horror! :lol:
(I believe the correct statistic is one out of every three Americans die from heart disease. Average age for first heart attack is 66.)
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 04:49:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no future! Eh, is time going to stop?
I never thought of that ...Nice one. Actually it will some day though, Time did have a beginning and will one day have an end.

Nope. According to astronomical observations expansion of Universe will carry on for ever. Universe is expanding and it's expanision is accelerating due to a feature known as dark energy.
Dark energy is not to be confused with dark matter btw. So nothing like Big Crunch and the end of time is coming. Our future is a heat death with expanding space filled with leptons, infinitely red shifted photons and virtual particles popping in and out of existence to satisfy Heisenberg principle.
Time will go for ever. There is always a future, even if only a very boring one. Entropy reign.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby mkwin » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 06:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') think you need to read up on demographic transition. The drop in fertility rates in the developed world is due to a rising standard of living fueled by fossil fuels over the last 40 years. It is not a direct conscious choice. It is a short-lived decline that will not continue post-peak to drop the fertility rate in the developing countries...as assumed by those who predict a population stabilizing at 9.1 billion in 2050.

I do not need to 'read up' on anything. The falling fertility rates are caused by the emancipation of women, birth control, and abortion.

Your perspective, as are most reductionism views, incorrect. For example, the standard of living in Russia is not great yet it has a very low fertility rate, whereas the US has one of the highest standards of livings in the world and a fertility rate above replacement levels. Your mistake is confusing correlation with causality.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 12:57:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')ne out of every two people in the US will die from heart disease. Diabetes is on the rise. Cancer is rampant.
So thats it? That's your die-off due to overshoot? We're all going to grow old and have health problems? The horror! :lol:

That isn't what I said. I said we are not immune from pandemic disease.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')I think you need to read up on demographic transition. The drop in fertility rates in the developed world is due to a rising standard of living fueled by fossil fuels over the last 40 years. It is not a direct conscious choice. It is a short-lived decline that will not continue post-peak to drop the fertility rate in the developing countries...as assumed by those who predict a population stabilizing at 9.1 billion in 2050.


I do not need to 'read up' on anything. The falling fertility rates are caused by the emancipation of women, birth control, and abortion.

Your perspective, as are most reductionism views, incorrect. For example, the standard of living in Russia is not great yet it has a very low fertility rate, whereas the US has one of the highest standards of livings in the world and a fertility rate above replacement levels. Your mistake is confusing correlation with causality.


And your statements here absolutely show you need to read up on demographic transition.

Citing Russia as an example speaks volumes of your ignorance on the subject.

"Emancipation of women, birth control, and abortion" are examples of this demographic transition with birthcontrol only responsible for about 15% of the demographic decline. :roll:

Understanding the demographic transition

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:25:50, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby NWMossBack » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:07:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hat isn't what I said. I said we are not immune from pandemic disease.
Yes, but you did not cite any pandemic diseases you thought might contribute to die-off in the US. Your examples did not support your argument.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:11:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hat isn't what I said. I said we are not immune from pandemic disease.
Yes, but you did not cite any pandemic diseases you thought might contribute to die-off in the US. Your examples did not support your argument.


Like I need to?
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby NWMossBack » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:16:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')ike I need to?

Never mind. Continue your race to 20,000 meaningless posts (and several hudred exceptional ones of course). :P
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:23:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NWMossBack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'L')ike I need to?
Never mind. Continue your race to 20,000 meaningless posts (and several hudred exceptional ones of course).

Can't refute the facts; attack the messenger.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:36:08

The two main diseases that worry me when contemplating the low-energy future, especially a future of crowded cities, are cholera and typhoid. Also of course plague, diphtheria, polio, tuberculosis, malaria, etc.

During the recent floods in our nearby city, raw sewage was bubbling from manholes into the flooded streets.

This, during a period of prosperity and cheap energy.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:53:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he two main diseases that worry me when contemplating the low-energy future, especially a future of crowded cities, are cholera and typhoid. Also of course plague, diphtheria, polio, tuberculosis, malaria, etc etc. During the recent floods in our nearby city, raw sewage was bubbling from manholes into the flooded streets. This, during a period of prosperity and cheap energy....

Yes, prior to the discovery of the germ theory of disease in the mid-1800’s, 50% of the people born into the world died before reaching the age of five, with infectious disease being the number one cause of death. An even more significant problem was infectious plague. Any time population became really dense, it was just a matter of time until an infectious plague exploded in the dense population and quickly returned the population to previous low levels. How soon we forget and dismiss history.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby mkwin » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 13:59:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')nd your statements here absolutely show you need to read up on demographic transition. Citing Russia as an example speaks volumes of your ignorance on the subject.
"Emancipation of women, birth control, and abortion" are examples of this demographic transition with birthcontrol only responsible for about 15% of the demographic decline. :roll:
Understanding the demographic transition
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

lol- MonteQuest I think it is you that should be doing the reading!
A quote from the exact article you state to prove your point:
"Birth control is estimated to affect about 15% of demographic decline - but that's a comparatively small percentage. In their book Understanding Reproductive Change: Kenya, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Costa Rica, editors Bertil Egero and Mikail Hammerskjold observe that fertility change seems largely unlinked to contraception access. That is, people tend to have about the number of children they want, "

The point states, people tend to have the amount of children they choose? But you just stated declining populations are not as function of choice but due to living standards from fossil fuels. In fact, the article then goes on to talk about a trend of declining populations in the third world and the reason cited is

"Women have high literacy rates and political power. Women are comparatively well protected from rape, and can choose their husbands. A 1994 study by Yale Economist Paul Schultz found that female literacy was perhaps the most defining factor in TFR in poor nations. In India, Kerala, with a 100% female literacy rate has a 1.7 TFR, compared to a 4.1 TFR in regions with a 30% literacy rate"

i.e. emancipation of women. A trend I doubt will be reversed by peak-oil; in fact we may even see the first women President. I am not sure if Hilary will give up the Oval Office and go back to the kitchen because of peak-oil. The very article you referenced to support your point actually contradicts what you are saying!
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby NWMossBack » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 14:00:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'p')rior to the discovery of the germ theory of disease in the mid-1800’s.........
Ah, there's the rub.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 14:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')The very article you referenced to support your point actually contradicts what you are saying!

No, it doesn't. Your lack of a grasp of demographic transition causes you to cherry-pick quotes that illustrate your ignorance. Your reference to the emancipation of women is part of the demographic transition.
And the quote "people tend to have about the number of children they want" destroys your position that the decline is from birth control and abortion. You even cut off the part that refuted your claim
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is, people tend to have about the number of children they want, regardless of access to birth control.

People tend to have the number of children they want due to demographic transition.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he question is how do people come to want a particular family size. And the answer to that question is that generally speaking, people make fairly rational choices, based on their personal economics, their personal situation, their need to have a child of a particular sex, their need for workers, their need for someone to help them in old age.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n Europe and North America, the Demographic Transition occurred over two centuries - gradually, as hygenic practices changed, medicine improved and other factors lowered death rates, women grew up noticing "hey,five kids aren't necessary - I can have three and be assured of getting them to adulthood." Thus, the average TFR (that's the total fertility rate) dropped steadily from 6 to 2.8 and then down further. Now the developed world has an average TFR of 1.8, below replacement rate.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')enerally speaking, the demographic transition occurs as a result of a certain degree of wealth - that is, there's now money for infrastructure improvements such as water systems and sewers.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sun 12 Aug 2007, 14:41:21, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 14:36:13

'At the south-western tip of the subcontinent, Kerala has an amazingly creditable record in providing elementary education and basic healthcare. The Human Development Report 2003 of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) states: "The state of Kerala, India, has health indicators similar to those of the United States — despite a per capita income 99% lower and annual spending on health of just $28 a person."' Tribune

"Kerala's population growth rate is India's lowest" wiki

"The Indian demographic scenario has thrown up a few interesting trends, with population growth rates in the two southern States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala slipping below the 1 per cent mark." link
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 14:44:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ''')At the south-western tip of the subcontinent, Kerala has an amazingly creditable record in providing elementary education and basic healthcare. The Human Development Report 2003 of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) states: "The state of Kerala, India, has health indicators similar to those of the United States — despite a per capita income 99% lower and annual spending on health of just $28 a person."' Tribune
"Kerala's population growth rate is India's lowest" wiki

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.
By "model" we mean that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not accurately describe all individual cases. Whether or not it applies to less developed societies today remains to be seen.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 19:25:58

I guess I shouldn’t need to remind anyone of the forum policy here, but if I do:
… this is a forum for anyone who wants to discuss solutions to possible future problems related to the decline of cheap energy. Please post other topics elsewhere.
Please stay on topic and post in a civil manner. Personal attacks and ideological rants not only detract from the readability and informative value of threads but also inhibit lurkers from joining the conversation.
As far as I can tell this topic has nothing to do with the above criteria.
And as many of this sort of threads do, it s turning into a usless flame war about who is smarter than who.

Silly monkeys.

I don’t really have any idea why it was moved here in the first place and as a few of us work pretty hard to keep this forum free of this crap instead of defending our digital ego, I would appreciate whoever moved it here (or any other Mod) to move it where it belongs.

Thanks,
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 19:31:52

I think it was started here and no mod moved it in. But I will be happy to move it to Open Discussion.

Carry on. :)
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