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There is no future!

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 11:51:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople have endured hardships in the US and elsewhere before. But never has a world-wide crisis like peak oil happened before.
You may have faith in the average American person post peak, but I don't. These people (strangers) you have faith in to work together peacefully are now all well fed and can still buy whatever they want and need, whether it be on credit or with cash. Take that away and most of these 'trustworthy, peaceful people' will turn into angry mobs, putting their families first above all else. These are the facts, whether you like it or not. It's called survival. I do believe that in a peaceful, unselfish world where people would sacrifice for the common good of the country there could be a smooth transition to power down. But unfortunately we don't live in that kind of fantasy world. Welcome to the reality of a spoiled, selfish, individualistic society.

Well - Even the ultimate doomer (Richard Duncan) says some places will be worse than others. I am sure in a depression inner cities will be a nightmare, but if you take off your fatalistic glasses just for a second and look at how things are running now. We arguably peaked last year and no disaster - There have even been some local fuel shortages in this country and still no disaster. The world will be producing alot of oil for quite a long time and the level of awareness will begin to increase more as time goes on - This is not going catch most people by surprise, as Kunstler says - "This is a Long Emergency" - But back to one of my original points, people in this country are running on borrowed money now - Do you you really think they think they can continue living this way ? I don't think so, I think they are fully aware something big is going to break very soon.
Most people I talk to have a reasonable understanding of the energy dilema we are in and know there are difficult times coming, you cannot stereotype everyone in society in the same camp - and just for the record I am a firm believer mankind has a destructive nature and always will - But until the entire system breaks people gunfighting in the streets isn't going to happen.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby mkwin » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 12:46:14

Drifter -You say the world has never faced a world-wide crisis like peak oil before.

World War 2 was no picnic. I know from my Grandparents experience of the blitz that times were tough. People lived on very basic rations and under the threat of death every night they went to sleep and heard the hum of German bombers. Far from separating and causing civil strife this bought people closer together.

I’m not sure what will happen post-peak, what the aggregate rate of decline will be; maybe CERA’s undulating plateau is correct? Or maybe the world’s giant fields are about to collapse at double digit decline rates. The bottom line is, I have no idea and neither do you. Your ultra-pessimistic attitude is quite baseless and probably more reflective of your personality (and maybe watching too many Mad Max films).
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 12:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')ltra-pessimistic attitude is quite baseless and probably more reflective of your personality (and maybe watching too many Mad Max films).

I'll bet dollars to doughnuts he is of the Ruppert/Savinar clan.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Tyler_JC » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 14:17:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')ltra-pessimistic attitude is quite baseless and probably more reflective of your personality (and maybe watching too many Mad Max films).
I'll bet dollars to doughnuts he is of the Ruppert/Savinar clan.

(agreed) I often wonder why I waste my lunch breaks arguing with his ilk. There exists on this forum a large group of people who believe that global anarchy is inevitable. I'm not sure where they came up with this belief but the idea is so firmly rooted in their psyche that any attempt to debate it leads to name-calling and emotional rants.

I also wonder where the belief that a reduction in the availability of cheap liquid transport fuel (sometimes called "Peak Oil) should lead to a collapse of the electrical grid, the federal/state/local governments, the food distribution network, etc.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 14:24:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here exists on this forum a large group of people who believe that global anarchy is inevitable. I'm not sure where they came up with this belief but the idea is so firmly rooted in their psyche that any attempt to debate it leads to name-calling and emotional rants.

Murdering someone is a major undertaking - But for a generation of kids that have grown up on TV and video games it may seem quite trivial. I fail to see how these guys can assume the majority of americans can turn into mass-murderers.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby gnm » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 14:43:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') also wonder where the belief that a reduction in the availability of cheap liquid transport fuel (sometimes called "Peak Oil) should lead to a collapse of the electrical grid, the federal/state/local governments, the food distribution network, etc.

Well I can't weigh in about global anarchy but I am going to have to play devils advocate on the last bit:
Cheap liquid transport fuel drives our economy. I think it could easily have an immediate effect on food distribution (cost increases in shipping are obvious already) and maintenance of the electric grid. If you have ever studied the US electric grid Tyler, you would know that it is on the precipice already. The US grid is complex, interconnected, overstressed and under maintained. I will give you a regional anecdote..Power outages where I live are fairly common (2 in the last month) and last over 8 hours frequently. The last two were just as the result of average summer storms moving through and both lasted over 8 hours. I suspect this would make nationwide news if it occurred in LA, NY etc. But it doesn't even make state news here; granted I am on the fringe but that is where infrastructure is most ignored.
Keep in mind that local/state/federal governments all base their future budgets on infinite growth. How can that be a good idea?
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 14:55:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell I can't weigh in about global anarchy but I am going to have to play devils advocate on the last bit..
Cheap liquid transport fuel drives our economy. I think it could easily have an immediate effect on food distribution (cost increases in shipping are obvious already) and maintenance of the electric grid. If you have ever studied the US electric grid Tyler, you would know that it is on the precipice already. The US grid is complex, interconnected, overstressed and under maintained. I will give you a regional anecdote..Power outages where I live are fairly common (2 in the last month) and last over 8 hours frequently. The last two were just as the result of average summer storms moving through and both lasted over 8 hours. I suspect this would make nationwide news if it occurred in LA, NY etc. But it doesn't even make state news here; granted I am on the fringe but that is where infrastructure is most ignored.
Keep in mind that local/state/federal governments all base their future budgets on infinite growth. How can that be a good idea?

Yes - No doubt this is going to be a drag -To put it in strct monetarty terms our infastructure needs a minimal 1 trilion dollar investment to upgrade what is there. I personally don't think they will do it. Societies are going to need to start choices on whether to invest resources in ways to get to Disneyland or basic necessities - That will largely depend on demographics, people in LA/OC for a while will most likely continue their happy motoring fantasy until they run out of gas (or credit). But to your point I have thought about regularly scheduled blackouts in the event of a crisis - Sure it would be difficult, but would that drive people to the brink of a murderous rampage ? I don't think so.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 15:11:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')eep in mind that local/state/federal governments all base their future budgets on infinite growth. How can that be a good idea?

You ought to study what is happeing in Detroit right now - They are running out of money and the politicians are stating that plainly, I was impressed my last trip out there. State Senators were making comments like "We need to examine and establish our priorities because we simply cannot afford to pay for all the things we have". There was a former state supreme court judge who was calling for a mandatory salary/benefit reduction for all state judges.

The Govenor in our state said point blank on PBS - The Bush war doctrine has everything to do with his refusal to acknowledge our unsustainable society based on foreign oil imports. Even Arnie Schwarzeneger is being kind of honest about things. Now will this honest create a solution ? Probably not one that would make every person comfortable, but it will increase the level of social awareness perhaps to the point to where people will see the benefit of living with less.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby mark » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 17:29:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'M')ost people I talk to have a reasonable understanding of the energy dilema we are in and know there are difficult times coming, you cannot stereotype everyone in society in the same camp - and just for the record I am a firm believer mankind has a destructive nature and always will - But until the entire system breaks people gunfighting in the streets isn't going to happen.

Most people? Where do you live? Among my friends, even the one who deigns to read about peak oil, there is zero comprehension of the consequences of energy depletion.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'T')he Govenor in our state said point blank on PBS - The Bush war doctrine has everything to do with his refusal to acknowledge our unsustainable society based on foreign oil imports. Even Arnie Schwarzeneger is being kind of honest about things. Now will this honest create a solution ? Probably not one that would make every person comfortable, but it will increase the level of social awareness perhaps to the point to where people will see the benefit of living with less

Why do you think that simply being aware of a problem will convince people to “live with less?” How many people on this board have given up their car, heat in the winter and air conditioning in the summer? Are we all growing our own food? There is a thing about peak oil, climate change, corporate capitalism, fiat money, and what Kunstler calls the Jimminy Cricket syndrome. No matter how much you may “wish upon a star,” you won’t always get what you want. The petroleum age is drawing to a close and the sooner we acknowledge that and get on with what’s next the better off we will all be.

The point of my post was that too many people want to run this world on any and everything just to maintain the status quo. My friend, that’s the problem! It’s just not in the cards. We’ve played that game, had a wonderful party, but now it’s over. We need to make other arrangements. And that’s not so easily done is it? Can you find any example in history of a people willingly giving up what they’ve worked so hard to get just so all can at least have something? If you can’t, that’s why so many here get labeled a doomer.

I am a confirmed doomer; in fact I think it’s our only hope. We humans will not easily forsake our comfortable lifestyle, just look at the 3 billion Asians desperate to get in on the game. But that game’s played out. There are going to be a lot of very unhappy people around when reality sets in. Do you want to be the one to tell them, “Uh, sorry folks, we kinda used up all the easy oil.”

I have no better idea how the chips will fall than you do, nor does anyone else. We're all trying our best to determine what may happen so we and our families can be prepared for any eventuality. Since being prepared is always the best strategy, it's probably best to prepare for the worst, who knows, we may yet be pleasantly surprised.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 17:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')Uh, sorry folks, we kinda used up all the easy oil.”

Now I used to think this way. But after reading the "End of Oil" I realized the third world lacks an energy delivery infastructure and all those users may not come on line as easy as many people think. It does not mean it's right, but we have the system of consumption set up, so Asia may not be as formidable as we have been led to believe. They will need to be dealt with, but they are going to face the same problems gearing up as we do (and maybe even more)...

I live in Eugene Oregon and this is pretty much an anominally, and in the Long Emergency Kunstler says Asia is going to face the same problems we do - If not more. Is all of this a solution ? No, but as people become more aware, they will be forced to deal with things on a rational level - I live on a street where there are some older people 40 something families and I really don't see the people on my block forming a mob and taking my food - If anything I would share what I have and hope the favors are returned, if it comes to that.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Homesteader » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 17:59:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'D')rifter -You say the world has never faced a world-wide crisis like peak oil before.
World War 2 was no picnic. I know from my Grandparents experience of the blitz that times were tough. People lived on very basic rations and under the threat of death every night they went to sleep and heard the hum of German bombers. Far from separating and causing civil strife this bought people closer together.
I’m not sure what will happen post-peak, what the aggregate rate of decline will be; maybe CERA’s undulating plateau is correct? Or maybe the world’s giant fields are about to collapse at double digit decline rates. The bottom line is, I have no idea and neither do you. Your ultra-pessimistic attitude is quite baseless and probably more reflective of your personality (and maybe watching too many Mad Max films).

And who, my friend, is the common enemy this time? I have no doubt our respective governments are busily creating "enemies" to dehumanize and demonize in order to point the finger of blame away. However, many of us on these boards believe we have seen the enemy, and he is us. That makes for a very difficult battle.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 18:04:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd who, my friend, is the common enemy this time? I have no doubt our respective governments are busily creating "enemies" to dehumanize and demonize in order to point the finger of blame away.


I don't know where you are from, but Bush and Blair are really the only warmongers in power today. The rest of the world largely is trying to clean their own houses and take care of business in their own borders.

Bush's days are finished - The guys is crazy and will go down as the worst President in US History.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby AgentR » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 21:31:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'B')ush's days are finished - The guys is crazy and will go down as the worst President in US History.


He's a last term, lame duck, all presidents are finished at this point. All thats left to do is pack up and retire.

As to worst... Its easy for emotions to be high for those in opposition, I still feel moderately strongly that Clinton was the biggest, most repulsive failure of all time, but they dim with time. We can't really know the results of presidential actions till they've fully played out in the decades afterwards. It also depends on measuring stick. I'm partial to taking a check off list against stated and obvious policy objectives and seeing how many they made happen. On that score, Bush ain't no slouch; nor is Clinton.

Measuring them against a list of our own policy preferences is silly though.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Lore » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 21:49:19

This was an interesting story written in April of last year. I would venture to say the opinion has declined even further since then.

Image

The Worst President in History?
One of America's leading historians assesses George W. Bush

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow, though, George W. Bush is in serious contention for the title of worst ever. In early 2004, an informal survey of 415 historians conducted by the nonpartisan History News Network found that eighty-one percent considered the Bush administration a "failure." Among those who called Bush a success, many gave the president high marks only for his ability to mobilize public support and get Congress to go along with what one historian called the administration's "pursuit of disastrous policies." In fact, roughly one in ten of those who called Bush a success was being facetious, rating him only as the best president since Bill Clinton -- a category in which Bush is the only contestant.

LINK
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Jack » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 22:07:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'J')ack, this is a subject of which I have a great deal of knowledge. I have two sons-one with ADHD and one who taught himself to read before kindergarten & whose IQ test administered in the first grade with an IQ of 148. So, I worked for my kids, almost Always against every school district they were ever in.

Fascinating report, Ferretlover. Thank you.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Jack » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 22:15:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'H')ow do they know your loyalty is true though? Generally I am wary of those who display severe callousness towards others, even if they've expressed nothing but friendship and generosity towards me. I think many are the same.

It's an optimization problem, Narz; there is no easy, pat answer to your question. If they're too brutal, they would roast my liver for breakfast. Not brutal enough, and they'll give away the last MRE to some annoying child.
Keep in mind, there may come a time when one wants them to be callous to oneself - when they can perform a final act of friendship that one might be too weak to undertake themselves. Due to the COC, I had best not say more, nor clarify the foregoing.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby skyemoor » Fri 10 Aug 2007, 23:53:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is no future!


Eh, is time going to stop?
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Homesteader » Sat 11 Aug 2007, 13:27:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd who, my friend, is the common enemy this time? I have no doubt our respective governments are busily creating "enemies" to dehumanize and demonize in order to point the finger of blame away.
I don't know where you are from, but Bush and Blair are really the only warmongers in power today. The rest of the world largely is trying to clean their own houses and take care of business in their own borders.Bush's days are finished - The guys is crazy and will go down as the worst President in US History.

Baawhaaaa! :lol: I guess you drank the koolaid. You overlooked Russia and China for starters. Hanging the issue around the necks of just two people is about as naive and uninformed as it gets. According to you voting in a couple of new "political leaders" will solve the problem. Baaawhaaaa!

Read the article here and get back to me.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby clueless » Sat 11 Aug 2007, 20:29:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')There is no future! Eh, is time going to stop?

I never thought of that ...Nice one. Actually it will some day though, Time did have a beginning and will one day have an end.
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Re: There is no future!

Postby Narz » Sat 11 Aug 2007, 22:43:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')t's an optimization problem, Narz; there is no easy, pat answer to your question. If they're too brutal, they would roast my liver for breakfast. Not brutal enough, and they'll give away the last MRE to some annoying child.

I think you confuse brutality with strength and kindness with weakness. Don't you think a person can be compassionate and still not make stupid decisions out of pity?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'K')eep in mind, there may come a time when one wants them to be callous to oneself - when they can perform a final act of friendship that one might be too weak to undertake themselves. Due to the COC, I had best not say more, nor clarify the foregoing.

A mercy killing in case of emergency? I'd say that's compassionate not callous.
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