[Cloud9]

In the past, nation states were in many ways similar to living organisms in that they were born, matured, grew old and died. They had no way short of war to renew themselves.

Much is lost in these natural cycles. Libraries are burned. Infrastructure either degrades or is destroyed. Great men and women do not reach their full potential when they are forced to live short brutish lives. Still the great ideas persist.

What is different in this age as apposed to previous ages is that knowledge is much more democratic. It is dispersed into millions of homes, offices and workshops. It will be difficult to erase the core concepts and basic technologies that make American society viable.

There are millions of hobbyists that build airplanes, cars, computers, furniture, micro breweries, and guns. The list is endless. I suspect there are biotech labs in garages. Don’t forget that the first airplane, automobile and p.c. were built in a garage.

Individual initiative is not relegated to just areas of technology; it extends into government as well. Average Americans feel themselves just as competent as Supreme Court Justices in deciding whether or not their basic civil rights have been violated. They routinely sue government and each other to secure these rights. The average soccer mom may very well run and get elected to political office.

Economic crises, or pandemics may cause political structures to rise and fall but they do not generally bring about the end of civilization. We may be represented by charlatans, but at least they have the good sense not to represent themselves as God Kings. We may blame a modern politician for not preparing for a hurricane, but only the irrational blame the politician for the hurricane. The genius of most modern states is that bloodless revolutions can be delivered at the ballot box every four years. People may lose faith in their priests or politicians but they generally retain the institutions. Irregardless of the price of oil we will still have a constitution and a bill of rights. Congress will still meet and the Supreme Court will still sit.

There is one caveat. Should world agriculture come to an end for several years, we will then descend into barbarism.

[XOVERX]

I think our best method of reading the tea leaves of future events is to examine what has happened in the past.

Collapse by Jared Diamond is for me instructive.

When the resources of an ecosystem are sufficiently depleted, the civilization that depends upon those resources tends to collapse very quickly, not slowly. At least according to Diamond's case histories.

In the current situation involving Peak Oil, we are talking about the depletion of the source of most energy supply for the entire world. And that source of energy -- oil -- appears to be depleting very swiftly. Finally, the US is by far the largest consumer of what remains of the world's oil. With a US military that can enforce continued consumption for some period of time into the future.

While it is true that the world survived just fine prior to the industrial revolution (a revolution that necessitated the quick consumption of the available oil supply), it is also true that the world survived at population levels far far less than what we've got today. Billions and billions of people less.

While the US may plateau along with backyard food gardens for a period of time as the US military coerces other nations' oil exports to the US, at some point in the relatively near future the oil importation spigot twists down on the US rather significantly. And then there will be millions upon millions of folks in the cities of the US who will have a problem.

Think of the American Indians pre-Columbus. Most likely those pre-Columbian Indian populations are around the amount of population that can be comfortably supported in the US without incessant oil importation. But certainly not the population which we have today. Because where will the food come from to feed the current population?

There is one overriding reality that we always seem to minimize, if not overlook entirely: Modern Agriculture = Oil.

Hence, my reading of the tea leaves leans much more towards some degree of doomeristic dieoff before grinding down to the "old world" of having hand-cranked ice cream after bedding down the horses. And this, for me, is the best case scenario.

[asdar]

My post was meant more as a comment on how I think people will react. I feel that we put down the current generation more than they deserve. I think that both young and old in the U.S. will respond if a time of crisis comes.

It's important to look at reality, if it's hopeless, then whether people respond doesn't matter. That makes your post relevent, but I think that what you say has premises that are far from certain.

Oil accounts for 4% of our electricity. It's not the overwhelming power source that it's made out to be. Running out of oil is a given, the complete collapse of our electrical system is conjecture. I know some of what I talk about. It's not a sure thing at all that there will be a collapse of power.

The studies about ethanol replacing gas are dead on. We couldn't replace gas with ethanol. That doesn't at all mean that we couldn't power our farm equipment with ethanol, or biodiesel, or whatever method is most efficient.

modern agriculture does not = oil

The driver in modern agriculture is the $

They use so much fertilizer to get more out of less area to make the cheapest food. Without that we'd still be one of the lucky countries that export food, because we have too much.

If we need to we can go back to older methods and still meet the needs of our own. We consume, and waste over double what we'd need. When I was young we didn't waste anything, now if you look in the trash it's filled with expired and uneaten food.

The one area that I don't worry that much about is food.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asdar', 'T')he one area that I don't worry that much about is food.

[asdar]

It's one of the basic necessities of life, so it's natural to worry. Agricultural land is one of the many natural resources which the U.S. has, and the U.S. is in a solid postion to supply enough food for the people here.

If I lived in Europe, South and Central America, Japan or the USSR I'd worry, but the U.S. and Australia can both provide for themselves.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('asdar', 'I')t's one of the basic necessities of life, so it's natural to worry. Agricultural land is one of the many natural resources which the U.S. has, and the U.S. is in a solid postion to supply enough food for the people here.

If I lived in Europe, South and Central America, Japan or the USSR I'd worry, but the U.S. and Australia can both provide for themselves.