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There is no future!

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: There is no future!

Unread postby IanC » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 00:29:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'I')s there anybody who isn't going to die ? Let's have a show of hands, who isn't going to die ? [smilie=adios.gif]


Its not about who's going to die... I think its more about who's going to die...first.
:evil:

-G


Very truy. Clueless, we are all going to die, you're right. Good job. The "rub" is who dies first? Who starves while others eat? Who gets shot and who gets to pull the trigger? Who is forced from their property and who gets to watch it on TV? Who gets to try to emmigrate to a new country and who gets to force them out?

We're not all going to die at the same time and in the same way. People on this site are worried about the future for this reason. No one wants to die a solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short existance in the Hobbsian state of nature we seem to be heading for. Nation states will battle to secure scarce resources for their people. It's already happening. Open your eyes.

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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Narz » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 01:41:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'T')here is a glorious future, full of excitement and challenges!

Can I get an 'amen' to that !?

Amen! :-D

By the way clueless. Usually when someone gives themself a self-desparaging username it fits but I'd say you've got a pretty decent head on your shoulders.

Though I can see people like Ian's point to. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

That said, I don't particularly think it's logical to assume billions of others are going to die but not you, with your bunker full of cambells soup. I mean, even if oil isn't replacable in any real way people aren't just going to keel over and die. Just as you are adapting, they will adapt. I think many of the doomers use as much magical thinking as they accuse economists and "cornicopians" of using. They want to feel special, they want to think they have knowledge and wisdom others don't, and because of that they will thrive while others die. Depending on how prepared they are, they may be right. But then again, like clueless says, everybody dies. Some quite ironically. So more important that anything else, IMO also, is enjoying every moment you're alive.

Jack, I have a question for you.

Are you for real or just enjoying playing a role (sociopath)? Just curious. You can answer via PM if you don't want to ruin your image. If you're for real just what aspect of others suffering will you enjoy? Will you enjoy others dying because it means more of the pie left for you or do you have sadistic tendencies and enjoy the suffering of others just for the hell of it?

And one more, if this is your real life persona, I imagine you cover it up in real life, no? People generally don't trust those who proclaim to care only for themselves and those who are the most ruthless often meet bitter ends (whereas those who are loved at least don't have to worry about being tortured to death by an angry mob, at least not if they're surrounded by their own people).
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 03:21:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Russia is experiencing dieoff in mild form.
It would be great if we can experience similar kind of dieoff in the future.
That can be managed and life will go on.


Russia isn't experiencing Die-off. No one is starving in Russia. Japan's population will half in the next 50 years and it's nothing to do with Die-off.

The birth rate is below replacement levels in many developed countries and in the majority of European countries.

Russia is experiencing dieoff.
It is related to disease (mainly STD), alcoholism and loss of fertility.
Disease and loss of fertility are typical features of dieoff.
Alcoholism and other types of self destructive behaviours are additional "human factors".
Such behaviours are often engaged on large scale if there is a peception of "no future".
Dieoff may have nothing to do with availability of food.
You may be drowning in food and still experience dieoff.

NB. I was not claiming that Japan is expeiencing dieoff.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 03:40:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', '
')We're not all going to die at the same time and in the same way. People on this site are worried about the future for this reason. No one wants to die a solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short existance in the Hobbsian state of nature we seem to be heading for. Nation states will battle to secure scarce resources for their people. It's already happening. Open your eyes.

-IanC
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Dieoff by starvation is going to be reserved for Third World mainly.
Even there it is likely that war and disease will take off within starving masses and become an ultimate casuse of most death.
Starving peoples are not going to survive malaria as easily as well fed ones...

Here in first world it will mainly go via collapse of medical care, welfare and other value added social structures, which are to collapse in decreasing energy world.
We will also enjoy transmissible disease, self destructive behaviours (alcohol, drugs, prostitution and other forms of reckless lifestyle, like they do in Russia now), increase of crime (and violent responses to it...) etc.
All those factors will work together relentlessly reducing our population until more or less stable equilibrium is reached.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Niagara » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 08:22:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'A')n perfect example of the simplistic reductionism nonsense that sets this site far below the quality of The Oil Drum.

If you wondered why Peak Oil.com wasn't involved in the NPC report consultation like The Oil Drum and ASPO etc were, well this is it.


Then go to TOD. Don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Remember: 73.3% of statistics are made up
and the other 23.6% are wrong
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby mkwin » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 08:27:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
') No one is starving in Russia. Japan's population will half in the next 50 years and it's nothing to do with Die-off.

The birth rate is below replacement levels in many developed countries and in the majority of European countries.


If there are people starving in America then my guess is that there are people starving in Russia today, especially with turbo crony capitalism they have.

Die-off I guess it depends how you define it. If you had a population that was contracting by a million a year as in Russia it's hardly a dreamland, clearly there is much hardship there lots of alcoholism etc..

Japan is very wealthy and insular (read they don't like immigration) so if their system of social organisation has come to a point where (IF current trends are sustained) their population will halve then thats well on the road to a die off, IF trends continue.

Time will tell, perhaps the looming energy crunch oil/gas will speed the process? Or will it increase population as many hands make light work and manual labor becomes more important?

Who knows time will tell. But it's not looking good. Totally different economic outlook compared to the unlimited growth paradigm of the past.


According to your point of view the majority of the developed world is experiencing 'die-off'. The birth rate is below replacement levels here in the UK and wealth and prosperity has never been so high. If this is die-off bring it on!

See the following list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... birth_rate

Die-off will accelerate in the third world but it has little or no chance of ever happening in the developed world.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby HorneyGeekBoi » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 08:46:50

My predictions:

A) There will be no chaos, martial law imposed, trouble makers shot, fear will stop lawnessness, the government will become a mob...

B) The powers that be want the population to increase, as a result, living conditions will decrease, slavery may be brought back eventually after rationing... Why? Because countries compete with other countries... We are already competing with china, and the country who can keep producing while decreasing their oil usage will have an advantage over another. Get ready for the USA to be turned into a china, and china trying to turn into the USA...

C) Oil will not disappear, remember that, it will simply become scarce. The infrastructure will still function, rich and wealthy people wwill still be rich and wealthy, and the population will be sustained or increased even if they have to endure third world poverty. After all, they cant complain, there will be a dictatorship.

D) At the end of the day, nations will fight other nations to survive, and the pawns will be the majority of poor people in those countries. Dont assume your government cares about you or your safety. It will want the population to increase, to provide more workers and soldiers. Weaker nations will do without oil, third world nations will do without oil, and medium sized nations or any nation with value metals, oil, gas, or any useful resorce will slowly be imploded because of economic warfare or nuked. Eventually it may get down to nuclear power vs nuclear power, but that is unlikely to result in anything. Nobody has anything to gain from provoking another country to nuke them, and by the time all the little players are gone, there will be enough oil to go around.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby clueless » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 13:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')ery truy. Clueless, we are all going to die, you're right. Good job. The "rub" is who dies first? Who starves while others eat? Who gets shot and who gets to pull the trigger? Who is forced from their property and who gets to watch it on TV? Who gets to try to emmigrate to a new country and who gets to force them out?

We're not all going to die at the same time and in the same way. People on this site are worried about the future for this reason. No one wants to die a solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short existance in the Hobbsian state of nature we seem to be heading for. Nation states will battle to secure scarce resources for their people. It's already happening. Open your eyes



If we are all just animals and are living in a darwinian world, what difference does it really make ? That is really what I fail to see the logic in, is death really ever comfortable to a person who is so afraid of even the thought of it ???

Anybody here on these boards could die on the way home. I was watching a PBS documentary on the Battle of the Bulge and a couple of those guys were discussing the fact that at times death was a better alternative during the more difficult days. Should any of the doomers live thier dreams I suspect they may think the same way about things.
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Jack » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 18:56:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'J')ack, I have a question for you.

Are you for real or just enjoying playing a role (sociopath)? Just curious. You can answer via PM if you don't want to ruin your image.


All my views and opinions are for real. As for being a sociopath - I don't perceive myself that way. It's a label others have applied, and it amuses me to use it. But the statements I've made are purest truth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')If you're for real just what aspect of others suffering will you enjoy? Will you enjoy others dying because it means more of the pie left for you or do you have sadistic tendencies and enjoy the suffering of others just for the hell of it?


Mainly because it leaves more for me (i.e., less competition). But there are some groups (which I will not define under any circumstances) that I despise. I will positively delight in their suffering.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')And one more, if this is your real life persona, I imagine you cover it up in real life, no?


Some of the more extreme positions, yes. One cannot go about saying that one detests some specified subset of the population - it isn't politically correct. But you'd be amazed how much of it can be revealed - especially if one adds a sly grin that can be interpreted as suggesting the comments aren't completely serious. Or, it can be viewed as including the other person in the more favored group - a group that one would not want to see in distress.

I've made some quite public comments about the recipients of so-called special education, for example. I've carefully avoided advocating doing anything to them (not politically correct, after all), but I have advocated removing them from the mainstream. All for the greater good of society, of course. :twisted:

It works even better if one does a few nice things - donuts or a cake, for example - for those listening. This way, they're less likely to be concerned. And one comes across a few delightfully ruthless people with harmonious views...views parallel to my own.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
') People generally don't trust those who proclaim to care only for themselves and those who are the most ruthless often meet bitter ends (whereas those who are loved at least don't have to worry about being tortured to death by an angry mob, at least not if they're surrounded by their own people).


So, what you're saying is that you should keep a group of friends or allies that you take care of, and don't betray. I agree.
Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby clueless » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 19:01:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve made some quite public comments about the recipients of so-called special education, for example. I've carefully avoided advocating doing anything to them (not politically correct, after all), but I have advocated removing them from the mainstream. All for the greater good of society, of course.


What is your definition of "the mainstream" ?

I like this - a true Darwinian...
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Jack » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 19:48:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '
')
What is your definition of "the mainstream" ?

I like this - a true Darwinian...


The context at the time dealt with public education policy. As you may be aware, the ADA (Americans with disabilities act) and NCLB (No child left behind act) have been interpreted by the courts as mandating a free public education to all children, including those with so-called learning disabilities. The Wall Street Journal had a series on this issue recently, BTW.

Anyway, this results in learning disabled children being placed in regular classrooms with non-learning disabled students. This particular practice is referred to as "mainstreaming". My contention (then and now) is that the bright and average students are shortchanged as a result of such a policy. Thus, the learning disabled child should not be included in regular classrooms. Furthermore, special education in general is a waste of resources.

Note that I maintained reasonable levels of political correctness. The reaction of those I said this to (some had learning disabled children) was predictable. I grinned at them. That made it worse. Which was great!

8)
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby clueless » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 21:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nyway, this results in learning disabled children being placed in regular classrooms with non-learning disabled students. This particular practice is referred to as "mainstreaming". My contention (then and now) is that the bright and average students are shortchanged as a result of such a policy. Thus, the learning disabled child should not be included in regular classrooms. Furthermore, special education in general is a waste of resources.


What it sounds like you are arguing against is forcing the smart kids to learn at a lower level...This is School to Work and Communism with a little TQM at it's finest. Got to get them while they are young, right ???
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 23:06:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')Anyway, this results in learning disabled children being placed in regular classrooms with non-learning disabled students. This particular practice is referred to as "mainstreaming". My contention (then and now) is that the bright and average students are shortchanged as a result of such a policy. Thus, the learning disabled child should not be included in regular classrooms. Furthermore, special education in general is a waste of resources.8)


Jack, this is a subject of which I have a great deal of knowledge. I have two sons-one with ADHD and one who taught himself to read before kindergarten & whose IQ test administered in the first grade with an IQ of 148. So, I worked for my kids, almost Always against every school district they were ever in.
My ADHD has had many psych tests, a couple of brain scans, and all kinds of therapy. I am not always comfortable with the ADHD diagnosis (I have thought part of his problem was that he was sporadically bi-polar), but he was never able to exert self-control. I did not like that he was mainstreamed, but many schools wanted it to have other kids learn how to act around handicapped students, and for the teachers to get experience in handling handicapped children. In one elementary, he was actually asked to be mainstreamed because he wasn't psychotic enough! If I had it to do over, I would have insisted that he never be mainstreamed. He couldn't keep up with the regular kids, and there had to be aides hired just to keep him on task (one aide I got fired because she was doing all his work for him!!). The other kids in his mainstream classes were held back somewhat waiting for the handicapped kids to catch up. (I once timed a day in my son's elementary school-of the 6 hr 30 minutes he was there, once you subtracted all the recesses, lunch 1/2 hour, going to and fro between the art, music, etc classes, he was in class 2 hours and 15 minutes!! And we wonder why they aren't learning anything!
As for my other son, I had to constantly argue with the teachers, principals and counselors because he was so bored in class-he was never challenged (this was before AP classes were so common). He finished up his junior and senior grades at a special AP high school here in MN.
So, basically what I am saying is that I agree with you-in part. IMHO, schools should be in session all year long, set up by learning abilities, NO graduating from any class until the students can pass with at least a B average (some might be in remedial reading but also in calculus). In other words, they may move ahead fairly quickly in some subjects, but be slower in others. They should not be moved through the grades just because of their chronilogical age. Classes should run all day 8 to 4 or 5, with any sports occuring After classes. (One of my husband's Univ profs has a theory that the reason young adults can't work more than 45 minutes to an hour without a break is due to the running around to get to other classes And because children watch so much TV & are used to having commercials break up the stream of what they are watching).
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby Narz » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 03:32:12

Thanks for answering my questions Jack.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'S')o, what you're saying is that you should keep a group of friends or allies that you take care of, and don't betray. I agree.

How do they know your loyalty is true though? Generally I am wary of those who display severe callousness towards others, even if they've expressed nothing but friendship and generosity towards me. I think many are the same.
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby TheTurtle » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 10:05:11

Despite the fact that this is a peak oil forum, peak oil is not really the worst of the problems facing us right now. Climate change, environmental degradation, peak clean water and a socio-economic system that is based on ever increasing consumption are the four horsemen of the Apocalypse that stare us in the face.

Peak oil is just icing on the cake of catastrophe. So to talk about alternatives to cheap oil is, IMO, meaningless as it ignores the major problems about to bite the world's collective ass.

Carry on. :)
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Re: There is no future!

Unread postby clueless » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 11:13:33

Drifter give me a break - I am not an idealist. I have clearly said tough times are ahead no doubt. But we hve endured hardship in this country on several occasions and people banded together - SO in spite of your psychobabble "History" is not on your side. And furthermore most people in the world live in difficult conditions, so why shouldn't people here get a taste of that ???
In fact where I live the level of PO awareness and sustainablity are embraced by much of the local youth, local govt. officials and local utitlities (who even sponsored Heinberg to speak to a sold out audience at the local Hilton). Yes therea re many wackos out there (like perhaps yourself) that are going to resort to crime, but not all.
You are e perfect example of a self-fullfilling prophecy, I have no doubt you will go out during the PO depression and try to waste some people who are going to waste you...I for one refuse to live that way, and besides you will probably end up in one of Cheney's fema work camps.
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