Hi, I go by lifer, a male 38 year old living in Canada. I'm fairly well read on peak oil theory, but I have a doubt that I would love someone well-informed respond to.
So we're running out of cheap oil. I get that. Production is set to decline at a rate of 2% per year, while demand is expected to increase. OK.
BUT - Look at how much oil the US alone wastes. If the US were to put even a little restraint on their oil energy consumption, something they could do with considerable ease when you look at how much they (we) waste senselessly, can't we more than offset the decrease in oil production?
Furthermore, the notion that demand for oil is expected to increase, isn't that based on current levels of availability of oil? I mean if oil production starts to decline, and the global economy goes into even a minor recession, oil consumption will plumet.
My feeling (please correct me if you have evidence to the contrary) is that oil prices will just yo-yo up and down for decades to come, but never create the catastraphe of total societal breakdown. If that comes, it seems more likely to come from social causes (increased crime, perhaps, or collapse of health care...) than some explosion in food prices due to oil shortages or a collapse of infrastructure due to lack of gas.
Any feedback?
(PS. I am, believe it or not, new to the internet, and I've just found out about the whole idea of forums. It's quite exciting, and I'd be curious to meet people with an intelligent (not pompous) concern for the globe, for the moral American political wasteland, and for friendship. Peak oil is exciting, because it almost gives one a sense of hope in a wierd way. My view and feeling is that the world is a mess as it is, and an impending healing crises may well be the only way to something better - although I am starting to feel pessimistic that any change is possible. Anyone with words on keeping alive one's sense of love in this mess of a world would be quite appreciated...hope this messsage isn't too personal.)
Sincerely,
Lifer (in for life)
PeakOil is You
I have a good question...will someone answer?
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I have a good question...will someone answer?
by Lifer » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 02:46:50
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Lifer - Wood
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Re: I have a good question...will someone answer?
by Micki » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 03:14:10
Welcome to the Internet Lifer, hope it will be around for a while.
The questions raised will probably trigger different kinds of answers and I am somewhat split in my own thinking but let's respond with what I think is possible scenarios.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')UT - Look at how much oil the US alone wastes. If the US were to put even a little restraint on their oil energy consumption, something they could do with considerable ease when you look at how much they (we) waste senselessly, can't we more than offset the decrease in oil production?
The questions raised will probably trigger different kinds of answers and I am somewhat split in my own thinking but let's respond with what I think is possible scenarios.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')UT - Look at how much oil the US alone wastes. If the US were to put even a little restraint on their oil energy consumption, something they could do with considerable ease when you look at how much they (we) waste senselessly, can't we more than offset the decrease in oil production?
On an individual level we don't tend to do much if we aren't forced to and same thing applies to companies.
It all comes down to $$$. We will keep doing what we are doing as long as we can afford it.
Given the slowing of the US economy I also don't think they will impose anything that raises the costs for the companies. In fact I find the opposite more likely - print more money to subsidize failing models just to keep things going a bit longer.
"Voluntary" cut-backs in energy usage will therefore only happen once the economy suffers.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')urthermore, the notion that demand for oil is expected to increase, isn't that based on current levels of availability of oil? I mean if oil production starts to decline, and the global economy goes into even a minor recession, oil consumption will plumet.
Yes...and no...but I agree, mainly yes. It depends on how you define demand.
Population is likely to continue growing and that generates a want or need for energy, especially if we want to continue living in the same standard as today.
My opinion is that demand is relative to the price.
As price goes up, demand goes down.
Businesses close, people don't go on holidays, no need to drive anywhere, can't afford to go shopping etc.
I am however not sure where you are getting this "minor" recession from. But OK, let's say there is just a minor recession, that also means that oil was only saved for a little while and it won't take long to catch up. Just like the early 80s recession most likely pushed PO from round 2000 to 2005.
After that, if we don't invent something very efficient very quickly, we are back to an ever declining energy environment.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y feeling (please correct me if you have evidence to the contrary) is that oil prices will just yo-yo up and down for decades to come, but never create the catastraphe of total societal breakdown. If that comes, it seems more likely to come from social causes (increased crime, perhaps, or collapse of health care...) than some explosion in food prices due to oil shortages or a collapse of infrastructure due to lack of gas.
We don't have evidence of what will happen in the future, although we have a few who seem to claim to be prophets.
Yes, wild swings in the economy could very well create a yo-yo effect, both in the short and long term.
I however see social breakdown being fuelled by housing and food costs (with lack of income). If the population for instance had free housing and cheap food, I think there would be little rioting as opposed to if they can't afford proper roof over the head and food.
I however see the price bias being to the upside as it becomes common knowledge that oil and later gas, coal and uranium production has peaked. The down swings will be shorter and of less magnitude.
Looks like work came in an interrupted me and I better attend to that while I stil have a job, so we'll continue at another time
Cheers...Micki
- Micki
Re: I have a good question...will someone answer?
by Narz » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 03:53:22
Welcome Lifer. I'm not qualified to answer your questions but wish you the best and hope you enjoy this weird and wacky world of Internet forums. It's a great resource, I met my GF thru it as well as a number of friends (albeit mostly distant ones).
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
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Re: I have a good question...will someone answer?
by pup55 » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 07:41:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the US were to put even a little restraint on their oil energy consumption, something they could do with considerable ease when you look at how much they (we) waste senselessly, can't we more than offset the decrease in oil production?
Welcome, Lifer:
You are quite right, a considerable amount of the US energy use is completely wasted.
But, unfortunately, there is an attitude within the US, maybe about 1/3 of the population, that says that people should be able to consume as much of anything as they want, as long as they can afford it. This goes with food, energy, water, or whatever the resource is. I cannot explain exactly how this happened. It's why about 1/3 of the population is obese.
Be that as it may, among this segment of the population, it is a sign of weakness that they should have to sacrifice or show restraint on anything. Also there is no political constituency at all for sacrifice. When Jimmy Carter tried to lay out the problem to us in the 80's, he was criticized not because of the sacrifice, but that it implied weakness.
Similarly, in the last election, when John Kerry suggested that people start car pooling more, the opposition ridiculed this position as "crazy" or "pessimistic".
So, no leader at the top will want to step out on that limb again unless the situation reaches absolute emergency levels.
There is still a substantial percentage of the population, maybe around 75%, that still believes that there is plenty of oil around, and some conspiracy is happening, by some combination of the oil companies or the arabs or the government, to keep from pumping full out and making the price cheap again. There is a substantial percentage of the population that actually believes it is OK to invade some other country to take the oil.
Also a lot of the local political people, and I am talking about the mayors, county commissioners, etc. in the suburban and smaller cities, that are directly involved in either selling cars, building houses or strip malls, or otherwise pouring concrete. As long as this is the case, we will have cars and strip malls. Any reduction in driving has a direct impact on these two activities. So, there is no constituency for any sort of energy reduction at the local level.
Now, this is not to say that the situation is hopeless. At some point, if the emergency is so great, or the price gets so high that some of the hard core 1/3 of the population wakes up and agrees that there is a problem, some action will happen. But, until then, forget it.
The question is: will we be too far gone before this happens.
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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