[ConcernedPerson]

Anybody have any opinions on what life will be like once we get past Peak Oil? Seeing some scenarios here such as returning to the 1100s or the Stone Age seems to be very pessimistic. I imagine that we would probably return back to the Stone Age if we had no alternatives at all...however...we do. Personally, I think that after the population reaches a stable amount we might return to a 1960s way of life before oil demand went sky high. *End optimistic scenario*

[Jack]

The 1960's required a fair amount of fuel.

I suspect it depends on the time frame you're looking at. But another poster (my apologies for not recalling the name) suggested that we can look at how the third world lives today to get an idea of what America will be like in 20 years. One can juggle the numbers, but I suspect the concept is correct.

Now, in a couple of hundred years, perhaps we'll have things sorted out again. But it's going to take awhile. You and I probably won't see it.

[Tyler_JC]

question, 1960's USA or 1960's Africa?

In America, we were building suburbs and conusming gas like there was no tomorrow. We were consuming every kind of consumer products at an alarming rate and energy was very cheap. There is no way we could ever return to a 1960's USA lifestyle.

In Africa, there were civil wars and resource shortages. We can do that. It won't be fun, but we can "afford" (energywise) an African lifestyle.

[Cash]

Are you talking about post-PO in the United States and Europe or elsewhere? In US/Canada, in the beginning, I expect we'll start with the kind of lifestyle changes we saw in the mid-late 1970s during the energy crises of that decade: cutbacks in driving, rising prices causing a resurgence of local food production, renewed popularity of high-mpg vehicles, perhaps a new back-to-the-land movement. Suburbanites tied to city jobs will begin moving back into urban areas, and workers in general will try to cut their commutes by moving closer to their jobs, causing something of a miniboom for the real esate industry.

As the decline continues and the economy worsens, bankruptcies will rise, along with unemployment and homelessness. Read up on the 1930s and the Depression. We might see a return of the single-wage-earner family as jobs become more scarce. Vehicle ownership will drop, and there will be a demand-driven rise in public transportation systems such as buses and trolleys, as well as trains for inter-city travel.

Alternative energy sources will be all the rage, as well as the source of innumerable scams. Rooftop PV and hot water heaters, biofuels, a major uptick in woodstove and coalstove usage. Commuter rail systems will expand.

I also expect that we won't go quietly into that low-energy night. There will be major armed conflicts over resources. We'll see the resumption of a military draft, probably more limits on personal freedoms, higher taxes, and eventual economic collapse.

Eventually -- as the decline continues, and assuming no major new energy discoveries or devastating wars or invasions on our own soil -- we'll see something rather like but very different from an 1890s lifestyle. Think Steam Punk with wifi computers and windpower farms and mountain bikes. But it will be much harsher than anything we have today, a much larger lower class and outright poverty. Farms will be smaller, horse-powered, with more cheap labor to pitch hay and shovel stalls.

How's that for a start?

[mindfarkk]

i really don't think with so many people aware of what's coming down that we will end up back in the stone age. the whole point of the stone age, or the bronze age, or whatever, is that they were technological moves forward. new technologies were made possible by advancements in the form of new materials, therefore expanding what could be made, often in terms of weapons and armor but also tools. my point is that that knowledge is not lost unless we make no effort whatever to keep it. with the entire body of thousands of years of agriculture, medicine, metallurgy, information technology, communication technology, and the like, i think a compete return is not only unlikely but almost impossible. granted it only takes one generation interupted to return to completely primitive conditions but - i think that can be avoided, as i said, if enough people are prepared, which hopefully is exactly what we are doing here. i see more of a scenario like that described above, a mix of new culture and old technology, and efforts to adapt the most vital benefits of the new technology to older means (i.e. vaccinations, sanitation, et al).

gotta run.... bbl

[tmazanec1]

Optimistic:
Recession, Depression with small wealthy class living higher tech than we have now (like a cyberpunk novel), limited wars over resources, nanotechnology et al developed, recovery, founding of a stable, sustainable society.
Pessimistic:
Recession, Depression with small higher tech wealthy (cyberpunk), growing wars over resources, Blowup and Collapse into a Black Age (like a Dark Age, but worse), "recovery" over centuries to a Medieval level civilization where we stay till an asteroid wipes us out/Christ returns/hypervirus mutation/whatever ends Homo sapiens.

[Sencha]

Cyberpunks rule, best one I ever saw portrayed was Kaneda in "Akira", I urge anyone to see that film before the crash. Awesome. I was going to read William Gibson's Neuromancer but I never got around to it though.

I have to also recommend Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson, another awesome cyberpunk story.

Anyway in a vain attempt to stay on topic, if I would have imagine life after PO, it would probably be something in the likeness of "Fallout" a computer RPG that came out in the 1990's I think. Damn good game.

[bentstrider]

Civil wars and ultra-mass rioting will definetely happen if a draft is reinstated.
As those that already got inducted will point their guns away from the so-called enemy and fire upon the loudmouths that were, one minute ago, GOD.
But, if this never occurs, then the peak oil scenario shouldn't get that violent.

[RIPSmithianEconomics]

Imagine the third world with depression and more anger. Africa is our best study of a die-off.

[kpeavey]

Following the peak will be a slide as the world enters recession, depression and regression. As sectors of the economy break down, the interdependence civilzation has built will result, eventually, in complete collapse of giant industry, the financial system, and anything beyond regional trade.

The Transition from the ordered, energy-driven civilizatin we enjoy now and the sustainable, renewable energy dependent civilization is diificult to predict.
It can be expected that the death throes of civilization will see violence, starvation, disease and death on a scale the bible does not even discuss.

After things calm down, the survivors will have scavengry to fall back on. the cities and towns will be picked clean of any and all materials which can be used or converted to tools.

Eventually, tools will break down. Metals will rust, remnants of the modern world will disappear. If education survives, we may see a continuation of agriculture, barter, even the arts. We could still weave wool into textiles, fashion lumber for building material, on occasion even smelt scavenged iron to make a kettle or a hoe. The best we could hope for would be an extended Colonial America lifestyle. Eventually, the refined metal tools would be gone, replaced with stone, wood or glass.
If education does not survive, the people in the future would be dependent on the land for all their needs. Human nature tends to the tribal community. I think the American Indian is a potential example of where we may eventually end up. Sustainable, renewable, at harmony with the world.

As far as civilizatin iand technology reemerging, it is highly doubtful. Our civilization has pludered the high energy resources, and the easy to exploit mineral deposits. Future civilizations would not have these resources available. High technology is a one shot deal for this planet. Too bad we blew it.

We have seen the best material and scientific achievments humanity has to offer.

[bobcousins]

One prediction I will make with certainty is that the future is impossible to predict. Our current situation is unique, and there really is no precedent with which to predict our future. Any simple extrapolation of trends will miss the mark, as events don't happen in a linear fashion. A "return" to a previous age won't happen, as we know things now that weren't then, and rich countries are simply not going to let 80% of their population starve.

Joseph Tainters theories of society contend that complex society is a problem solving mechanism. We now have the most complex society ever, and one of the biggest problems ever, so we will see if we are up to it.

In the UK I can imagine there will be a state of emergency declared, with food and fuel rationed while we build nuclear power stations. That might work here. Other countries may descend to chaos and have wars with neighbours. There are an awful lot of flash points around. Meanwhile, in Africa they mostly won't notice the difference.

Joseph Tainters theory of social collapse says there must be a viable alternative state to collapse to, if it is to occur. Most people in western countries are well off and are not going to start rioting, they will accept many sacrifices to maintain social stability. The underclass may not act the same way, so they are a wild card.

Whatever happens will be punctuated by unexpected events. Islamic fundamentalism and anti-US feeling had been brewing for a long time, not many expected or predicted 9/11. And there is whatever Nature throws at us, there are several places overdue for the "Big One".

It looks like the US economy will collapse soon anyway, the repercussions of that one event are global and impossible to predict.

[kpeavey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')oseph Tainters theory of social collapse says there must be a viable alternative state to collapse to

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')rich countries are simply not going to let 80% of their population starve.

[bentstrider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')rich countries are simply not going to let 80% of their population starve.

[NicholasT]

Not too much night life.

Maybe you should practice your concentration:

http://www.ibogleif.dk/uk/index.html

[Stripes]

If that is life after peak oil then I am all for it. Still can tell where the little red ball is.

[ararboin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the American Indian is a potential example of where we may eventually end up.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

That was fun, but only cause I have "very good concentration".