[Starvid]

Cuba is a shithole, peak oil wise.

Cuban electricity generation is almost 100 % dependent on oil. And they can't even get their sugar cane industry into order, even though that would make them lots of $$$ (ethanol that works). But oh no.

They are fucked. Like Africa. Count on increasing refugee flows to the US.

[Chesire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I')f Mexico really does run out of oil to export, and therefore pulling the rug out of their economy, wouldn't it be prudent for the United States to support a communist-style government down there (remember, this is far different than the 80's, when we had the Soviet threat to be concerned about), which at least has the potential to put the brakes on the flood of refugees northward?

You gotta think, if 10% of the people down there starve, the streets of Mexico City would turn into rivers of blood, as well as triggering an unstoppable wave of refugees streaming into the United States, even in the face of being mowed down by desperate military forces stationed at the border. But if Mexico went communist, a la Cuba of the late 1950's, they would at least have a chance to redistribute the vast wealth of the upper class, keeping the people fed and content enough not to flee north or incite a massive civil war.

Feel free to shoot me down on this, just tossing out silly ideas as usual...hehe.

[phaeryen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'l')educk:
As for what is the U.S. doing to prepare?
Why waging war on the world, of course!

[lawnchair]

What is the US doing to prepare that Mexico isn't?
Easy. Our fertility rate is 2.04 births/woman. Replacement level. If first-generation immigrant families are excluded, it's measurably below replacement.

Mexico's rate is 2.4. Below the world's average, but well above replacement.
The huge gulf between those numbers is why there needs to be serious border enforcement. It's not that the US numbers aren't way past overshoot... pretty much past the point of slow powerdown. But, we wouldn't be digging ourselves further into that hole on our own.
However, capitalism and fiat money require growth. Growth, or unspeakable horrors!

If it weren't for the need of the growth machine, the plan for the US would be obvious:
1) Severely curtail immigration.
2) Limit subsidies that encourage more children.
3) Stay highly-armed, so that countries who can't figure out population control don't try to invade.

As it is, we sorta encourage breeding in the US (limited financial support, subsidized schoolsitting). But, we definitely encourage more children to be born in Mexico (another child means the chance of another son who could immigrate and remit money).

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', 'W')hat is the US doing to prepare that Mexico isn't?
Easy. Our fertility rate is 2.04 births/woman. Replacement level. If first-generation immigrant families are excluded, it's measurably below replacement.

[TreebeardsUncle]

So, how will this affect the price of gasoline in America? How likely is it to go up in 2009 due to a lreduction in exports from Mexico?
Can Nigeria and other countries pick up the slack? Other than more illegal immigration and attempts to discourage that, I doubt whether this will effect indebted entitled Americans much.
g

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', 'O')ur fertility rate is 2.04 births/woman. Replacement level. If first-generation immigrant families are excluded, it's measurably below replacement.

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', 'O')ur fertility rate is 2.04 births/woman. Replacement level. If first-generation immigrant families are excluded, it's measurably below replacement.

[evilgenius]

I think that TPTB are hoping that a side effect of the crash will be to discourage immigration. I don't think they will get that. While visiting the UK I have noticed that many of the 'hated immigrants' came to the UK because they idealized a long faded image. The UK turned out to be nothing like what they thought it was, but they had gotten here so why not stay.

That isn't true for everybody but it does demonstrate what can really be expected vis a vis US immigration even after a collapse.

[Twilight]

That's a point I made in one of the Europe threads, but I got smacked down for lack of imagination.

Well, uh, too bad. Image > Reality, and people fleeing a dying country are not going to be up to speed on reality.

[Ferretlover]

Mexico warns U.S. border wall would fall
President Fox’s vow comes as 70,000 maps prepared for migrants
MEXICO CITY - The debate over illegal immigration via Mexico into the United States took two new turns Wednesday, after President Vicente Fox warned that a proposed U.S. border fence would fall just like the Berlin Wall and Mexico’s human rights commission said it would distribute 70,000 border crossing maps in a bid to prevent immigrant deaths.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11021540/from/RSS/

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'M')exico warns U.S. border wall would fall
President Fox’s vow comes as 70,000 maps prepared for migrants
MEXICO CITY - The debate over illegal immigration via Mexico into the United States took two new turns Wednesday, after President Vicente Fox warned that a proposed U.S. border fence would fall just like the Berlin Wall and Mexico’s human rights commission said it would distribute 70,000 border crossing maps in a bid to prevent immigrant deaths.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11021540/from/RSS/

[Ferretlover]

Yes, I know Fox is gone.. I wonder how far back the talk of a fence between the US & Mexico has been going on...
I heard something on one of the news channels that Calderine was going to the (World Court ?) to file suit against the US, claiming a border fence would cause irreparable damage to the environment..
But, I couldn't find the story in print anywhere.

[roccman]

Link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Mexico's oil production is in decline. There's probably no way to stop it," said Mike Rodgers, an expert at one of the top oil industry consulting firms, PFC Energy in Houston.

Mexico is the second largest supplier of oil to the United States (about 1.5-million barrels a day). But output from its major fields is dwindling fast, according to official figures from the state-owned oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). The country's known oil reserves will run out in nine years, the government says, potentially undermining the nation's oil-dependent budget.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he fact that Mexico may be running out of oil should not alarm U.S. consumers in the short term, analysts say. The United States will most likely buy more from Canada, which is the nation's number one supplier.

[rider]

What a joke, oil from the Alberta tar pits is going to save the world. When the NG needed to cook that dirt runs short, then what? Oil from the arctic sea? We will burn everything we can to keep this show going, no doubt about it.

[roccman]

Some PO articles are not so cheery...

Energy Bulletin

Declining net oil exports--a temporary decline or a long term trend?
by Jeffrey J. Brown and Samuel Foucher


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')o answer the question in the title of this paper, we believe, for reasons outlined below, that the current decline in world net oil exports is probably the start of a long term trend, as a result of declining production and/or increasing consumption in key exporting countries.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he country's known oil reserves will run out in nine years, the government says, potentially undermining the nation's oil-dependent budget.