[Roccland]

Peak Oil Passnotes: To Sir With love

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e says: “The IEA’s assessment is that oil (and gas) reserves are sufficient to sustain economic growth “for the foreseeable future” and “to meet anticipated increases in world energy demand through to 2030.” This view is supported by its latest medium-term market outlook, which predicts global oil production capacity in 2012 will be around 9 million barrels per day - 10% - higher than in 2007.

Let us look just briefly at the idea that the world will add 9 million barrels per day by 2012. It is rubbish. At 85 million barrels per day at the moment, the world will need to add – at a modest 4% decline rate – an extra 3.4 million barrels per day in the next five years, simply to stand still. In order to stick an additional 9 million barrels per day then 12.4 million barrels per day is the actual amount needed.

So the world will add 12.4 million barrels per day within the next five years and five months? Surely, Sir King (to paraphrase Chris Moltisanti in The Sopranos) has found the magic pixies at the bottom of his garden compelling advocates for the oil exploration business. The pixies, in their wisdom, have explained that, despite all the major companies saying their production will be flat, despite the refusal of major state companies to allow in masses of new investment, despite the huge increase in costs delaying projects right, left and centre the oil will magically appear. Damn those persuasive pixies!

[Twilight]

That sort of bollocks won't last long. There are still a few more megaprojects coming up, but they will probably be the last. In just a few more years, there won't be any significant new projects to point to. Then that claim's usefulness comes to an end.