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Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:09:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')y portfolio will be (still have a little to do),

Oil majors 10%
Oil service 15%
Index Linked Gilts 20%
Renewable energy stocks 10% (returned 24% last year)
Gold Certificates 10%
Silver Certificates 5%
Gold coins 5%
Silver coins 5%
Other 10% (Have some major mining stocks/uranium/nuclear/coal/bit of arable land)
Cash 10% (Euros)

Nice portfolio! :)


Yeah, if deflation doesn't happen.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')r Bill..... What’s your take on Shell, BP and Total?

They have lost quite a bit of ground over the last three months and I’m thinking they are now a buy.

Shell for example; when you strip out their upstream business, you are buying (P50 estimate) 30 billion barrels of oil for $5. Considering their production costs are circa $20, my view is that’s good value? When you factor in hurricane season, Iran and the tightening supply situation, there seems to be significant upside. What do you think?


The majors have low P/E's for a reason....
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby MOCKBA » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:15:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Sunoco (SUN) looks good with an RSI of 21.59 and an estimated P/E ratio of 7-8. It lost 13-14% last week. I like it better than Valero (VAL) that only lost 7-8% last week and still has a estimated P/E of 15.39, but I do hold a much smaller VAL position in addition to my SUN. I would look to re-add to the SUN position that I sold in June this week.

Fontier Oil, Holly Oil, Western Refining, Alon USA Energy and Tesoro all got knocked down 11-20% last week and have some attractive P/E ratios between 7.5-13, if you like that sector in the long-run. I have to admit I am not familiar with each one's relative strengths or weaknesses.

Refining margins are weaker than their peaks of $24-26 per barrel earlier this spring. They are now $10-11 per barrel and dip to $8-9 per barrel in the next months forward before recovering to $15-16 per barrel later in the next 12-mos. $8-9 per barrel is where we started the year in January.

However, heating oil and natural gas seemed to have bottomed on July 25th at $2.0100 per gallon and $5.7540 mmBTU respectively. If so, with the weak refining margins and being knocked down last week on wider equity weakness, then these levels might represent good entry points for a rally later in the year.


When it comes to refiners... Ain't they are the ones who are not investing into infrastructure because there is not much oil coming in going forward? How stupid of them, uh? The demand is raising when the prices are so cheap - less then $3 for premium when I fueled today (it was $2.99). What would happen to their volume (and they are volume sellers and not boutiques as well) when the oil would hit $100 and I would cut on my non-essential driving than pay over $4 (I doubt I personally would, but scale it twice if you wish)? Are they gonna be getting $20 crack or $10 crack? On declining volume too...

I don't know about refiners either... but it sure doesn't look like a winner story to me.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby MOCKBA » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 22:32:28

Overall, I don't see anywhere I need to be but in good old "dead presidents" lending to insolvent "war-government" too. Probably I would miss this year end rally, but may be the rally would be nothing to brag about. Could the market do better in second half then it did in the first?
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby mkwin » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 13:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')y portfolio will be (still have a little to do),

Oil majors 10%
Oil service 15%
Index Linked Gilts 20%
Renewable energy stocks 10% (returned 24% last year)
Gold Certificates 10%
Silver Certificates 5%
Gold coins 5%
Silver coins 5%
Other 10% (Have some major mining stocks/uranium/nuclear/coal/bit of arable land)
Cash 10% (Euros)

Nice portfolio! :)


Yeah, if deflation doesn't happen.


I fully expect deflation to happen. I do, however, believe it will be in specific areas of the economy most exposed to PO. For example, tourism, house building and non-essential consumer goods.

If we use the 1970's as a proxy, it is clear oil, and energy in general, will be inflationary when demand outstrips supply. The critical question is, will there be a sufficient reduction in the demand for oil, caused by the recession, to reduce this supply shortfall? I think it is possible but unlikely given the new demand for oil from the construction of alternative energy sources.

Gold and Silver are safe havens and their price will appreciate irrespective of whether we experience inflation or deflation overall. The world’s billionaires have a net wealth of 30 trillion dollars, much of this will be looking for a safe home, and gold is one of the most popular. The bonds will also do well if the CPI is low, as the capital value of the bond will increase due to the fall in the discount valuation rate.

The oil market is very cyclical and energy traders believe we are at the top of an oil cycle hence the low P/E, as revenue is expected to weaken. When peak oil is factored in, however, it is clear the traditional oil cycle is over. Shell has P50 reserves of 30 billion barrels (P5 is 60 billion) plus its interests in oil sands and renewable energy. When you strip out their downstream business you are effectively buying that oil for $5 a barrel. In my opinion that is fundamental value and when the market realises this new paradigm, of contracting oil supplies, the P/E ratio will reflect this.

So while some elements of my portfolio may suffer if deflation becomes a sustained problem, most will perform even better in relative terms.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 14:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')y portfolio will be (still have a little to do),

Oil majors 10%
Oil service 15%
Index Linked Gilts 20%
Renewable energy stocks 10% (returned 24% last year)
Gold Certificates 10%
Silver Certificates 5%
Gold coins 5%
Silver coins 5%
Other 10% (Have some major mining stocks/uranium/nuclear/coal/bit of arable land)
Cash 10% (Euros)

Nice portfolio! :)


Yeah, if deflation doesn't happen.

Thanks for your input. :roll:
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby phaster » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 22:39:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') have placed most of my investments in an oil eft it has done 20% this year so I am very happy.

I think however the market is going to absolutely tank and we are seeing that beginning right now.

should I get completely out? sell half and hold the rest?
then what should I move my cash into during the melt down?


For what its worth, remember that there have been many doom and gloom prophecies, Y2K, religious cults, etc. and one day it will happen. But past history has lots of counter examples of doom and gloom not happening.

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=9946

Ya also have to keep in mind that like it or not, people can and do follow a heard mentality, just look at fashion trends (in the '70s people wore bell bottom pants, in the '80s lots of people had those "Baby On Board Signs," in the '90's car companies got americans to buy into the concept of the SUV, for example or even better yet look at what's happening in the stock market (at first people looked at dot coms at being in fashion, that bombed, then it was real estate, and that's bombing, etc.)

What seems to work for me, is to look at long term trends, and try and identify sectors that will benefit. For example I'm convinced that global warming and peak oil production will occur, so I looked at ETF's that offer solutions. After the IEA had a report last month that they were projecting higher demand and lower supply in five years, I actually jumped in and bought an "internation" alternative energy ETF (or "electronic traded fund") based on a broad index

www.ardourglobalindexes.com/indexes_agixl.php

the exact ETF I've found is

www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&tkr=GEX

a few weeks ago. Althought I've lost a couple of percentage points since I bought in, I'm not going to sweat it, because I figure over time alternative energy will only become more main stream.

I know the PE ratio for alt energy stock are high, but I have a friend who manages money for people with lots and lots of money, and I've heard him say, more than once, "the trend is your friend" meaning, people are irrational and will keep on buying stocks like "aapl" or "goog" till something better comes around.

On thing I've trained myself to do, is not get emotional about a subject. For example if ya spend time in the back country alone, or have taken survival training, one thing that's ya learn is if ya panic, ya die.

Personally, I'd say stick with your oil ETC, cause its a broad based bet, in a sector that will not diminish in demand, and although the value of your investment may have gone down these past few week, long term oil prices will only go up, and share prices too cause lots of oil companies are buying back their shares. Personally I don't think that is a very good idea in terms of wise use of money, cause its not being used to invest in technology that could potentially solve the issues of global warming or peak oil, but that's just my own opinion...
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 21:36:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')y portfolio will be (still have a little to do),

Oil majors 10%
Oil service 15%
Index Linked Gilts 20%
Renewable energy stocks 10% (returned 24% last year)
Gold Certificates 10%
Silver Certificates 5%
Gold coins 5%
Silver coins 5%
Other 10% (Have some major mining stocks/uranium/nuclear/coal/bit of arable land)
Cash 10% (Euros)

Nice portfolio! :)


Yeah, if deflation doesn't happen.


I fully expect deflation to happen. I do, however, believe it will be in specific areas of the economy most exposed to PO. For example, tourism, house building and non-essential consumer goods.

If we use the 1970's as a proxy, it is clear oil, and energy in general, will be inflationary when demand outstrips supply. The critical question is, will there be a sufficient reduction in the demand for oil, caused by the recession, to reduce this supply shortfall? I think it is possible but unlikely given the new demand for oil from the construction of alternative energy sources.

Gold and Silver are safe havens and their price will appreciate irrespective of whether we experience inflation or deflation overall. The world’s billionaires have a net wealth of 30 trillion dollars, much of this will be looking for a safe home, and gold is one of the most popular. The bonds will also do well if the CPI is low, as the capital value of the bond will increase due to the fall in the discount valuation rate.

The oil market is very cyclical and energy traders believe we are at the top of an oil cycle hence the low P/E, as revenue is expected to weaken. When peak oil is factored in, however, it is clear the traditional oil cycle is over. Shell has P50 reserves of 30 billion barrels (P5 is 60 billion) plus its interests in oil sands and renewable energy. When you strip out their downstream business you are effectively buying that oil for $5 a barrel. In my opinion that is fundamental value and when the market realises this new paradigm, of contracting oil supplies, the P/E ratio will reflect this.

So while some elements of my portfolio may suffer if deflation becomes a sustained problem, most will perform even better in relative terms.


Great answer! Kudos!
I'm always glad to see people who think about their investments as you obviously have. :)

Firstly I have to say that I consider "deflation" in it's pure monetary sense that is a contraction in the broad based money supply, falling prices in a sector or across an economy are to me what I would call "disinflationary".

Now I don't agree with your perspective on Oil Companys though, mainly because their assets (reserves) are depreciating and I don't see how they can acquire new reserves to replace them. That is the fundamental reason why I wouldn't buy those stocks along with the fact that insiders don't want to know (the other reason is technical analysis). Boone Pickens if he was consistent with his autobiography would call for these crappy "supermajors" like Shell to be turned into Royalty Trusts. :lol:

As for deflation, I'm of the opinion that the 73-74 oil crisis can not compare to today because of the insane amount of bad debt floating around (still) in Japan, (covered up) in China, obvious in UK, Aus, USA. I could be wrong, and to call for some 'Austrian Economics' inevitability means you're probably gonna be wrong. But
deflation is IMO a huge threat.

While I'm here, an interesting article on bloomberg.com "The UK's subprime may be worse than the US":

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Anyway, "In the long run we're all dead", on that note I'm off to have another beer! :-D
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 21:50:08

Oh as for PM (precious metals) well, in theory they're a buy but in inflation adjusted terms they're junk. In price action and technical analysis I don't like them. So I would not buy them at the moment but then I wouldn't criticize those who do. They're showing strength this week though, I'm happy to be proven wrong, a major fifth Elliot wave in AU is certainly more than possible. :) However (from a US/UK point of view I like Swiss bonds better AT THE MOMENT, this moment could change in a week like when AU takes out 700!) :-D Jack be nimble, jack be quick.... :)
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby mkwin » Thu 09 Aug 2007, 05:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '
')
Great answer! Kudos!
I'm always glad to see people who think about their investments as you obviously have. :)

Firstly I have to say that I consider "deflation" in it's pure monetary sense that is a contraction in the broad based money supply, falling prices in a sector or across an economy are to me what I would call "disinflationary".

Now I don't agree with your perspective on Oil Companys though, mainly because their assets (reserves) are depreciating and I don't see how they can acquire new reserves to replace them. That is the fundamental reason why I wouldn't buy those stocks along with the fact that insiders don't want to know (the other reason is technical analysis). Boone Pickens if he was consistent with his autobiography would call for these crappy "supermajors" like Shell to be turned into Royalty Trusts. :lol:

As for deflation, I'm of the opinion that the 73-74 oil crisis can not compare to today because of the insane amount of bad debt floating around (still) in Japan, (covered up) in China, obvious in UK, Aus, USA. I could be wrong, and to call for some 'Austrian Economics' inevitability means you're probably gonna be wrong. But
deflation is IMO a huge threat.

While I'm here, an interesting article on bloomberg.com "The UK's subprime may be worse than the US":

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Anyway, "In the long run we're all dead", on that note I'm off to have another beer! :-D


The oil companies have a depleting traditional oil resource base yes (In theory, most have replaced or maintained their proven reserves every year). They do, however, have significant interests in non-conventional and are some of the biggest investors in alternative energy. British Petroleum is now 'Beyond Petroleum'. Now you’re buying this stock of a P/E of 9. So you're buying a huge amount of oil (this alone justifies the cost, especially if oil goes to $200 a barrel post-peak) and a downstream business, plus, in many cases, exposure to non-conventional oil (especially in the case of shell but I expect all the majors to follow suit eventually) and exposure to some of the most developed alternative energy in the future. Oil service companies also make up quite a bit of my portfolio and both Pickins and Simmons say they are a buy. They will be very important in EOR in the years ahead.

Your concept of deflation is very specific. It's not incorrect, as the money or credit volume does have a significant impact, but your view is a little too specific. Deflation can occur for a number of reasons and is literary the deflation or reduction in the price of goods and services. Its more likely demand destruction will be the most significant element of this and this will be in specific areas. Some things, like food and oil, we can't live without.

Now your view is the money supply will contract. It is a possibility due to a reduction in consumer and commercial demand (plus the inevitable widespread failure in the financial system), but I see governments running huge deficits so they will be expanding the monetary supply in that area. If fact, I am very much hoping deflation will be present, in order to counteract the inflationary effect of government spending and energy, food and other inflationary pressures.

Ultimately, no one knows how things will pan out. All you can do is come to your own conclusion about how you feel peak oil will effect the economy and make investments accordingly.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 18:57:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')Ultimately, no one knows how things will pan out. All you can do is come to your own conclusion about how you feel peak oil will effect the economy and make investments accordingly.


True, but I was LT bearish for a couple years before I heard of peak oil because of economic and market FACTS! My favoured outcome of PO is that it sends us over an historic Minsky cliff of deflationary doom! That's not to say I anticipated/anticipate it this decade, but that I saw/see it as our future. We'll see though...
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Sun 12 Aug 2007, 23:09:31

does anyone here invest in water?
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby IrrationalExuberanceMonky » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 20:02:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'd')oes anyone here invest in water?


I've got huge bottles of water stored, does that count? :-D :-D
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby Sulik » Mon 20 Aug 2007, 22:48:09

Powershares Water Resources (PHO) seems like a good ETF.

I saw it mentioned here a while back, and I jumped on the water bandwagon.
It seems more reasonably priced than oil ETFs these days (I've been afraid of a correction in energy stocks seeing the 400+% gains over the past few years, so I've sold my VGENX to wait and see what happens within the next couple of weeks ~ waiting for an opportunity to buy back OIH or CVX/XOM)
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 09:48:46

i have been investing in water companies for several years. mostly companies that specialize in desalination, as in like reverse osmosis. and infrastructure building companies. i have done very well with them. and i think they are only going to do even better in the coming years...water is still ridiculously cheap, but just wait.

whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over!
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 10:38:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'i') have been investing in water companies for several years. mostly companies that specialize in desalination, as in like reverse osmosis. and infrastructure building companies. i have done very well with them. and i think they are only going to do even better in the coming years...water is still ridiculously cheap, but just wait.

whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over!


Interestingly, I cannot think of a single water war in the last half dozen centuries? Can anyone else? I have heard of disputes over distribution, and over legal limits over open bodies of water, but never water wars. Even in wars amoung neighboring countries they usually managed to share water resources. Is this the stuff of The Old West folklore? Anyone?

But I agree with your assessment. I like project engineering companies in general like Babcock Brown, ABB and others. There is an acute shortage of skilled engineers, project managers and technical people to implement large scale infrastructure projects, especially in the inhospital parts of the world where we are increasingly finding our base metals and new sources of energy.

Cheap labor is not going to help in the global hunt for new resources or to build the projects to tap them or bring them to market. The shortage is on the technical side. Therefore, whether it is water projects or energy, I think these specialized firms are going to be in great demand.
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby SinisterBlueCat » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 10:50:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SinisterBlueCat', 'i') have been investing in water companies for several years. mostly companies that specialize in desalination, as in like reverse osmosis. and infrastructure building companies. i have done very well with them. and i think they are only going to do even better in the coming years...water is still ridiculously cheap, but just wait.

whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting over!


Interestingly, I cannot think of a single water war in the last half dozen centuries? Can anyone else? I have heard of disputes over distribution, and over legal limits over open bodies of water, but never water wars. Even in wars amoung neighboring countries they usually managed to share water resources. Is this the stuff of The Old West folklore? Anyone?

.


if you are referring to the whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting for quote, mark twain said it, and i just thought it was a funny addition to this post.

and there are maybe not water wars, but take a look at what is going on in las vegas

http://www.lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=6943263

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he news coming from the Southern Nevada Water Authority Thursday about the valley's future water supply is worrisome. Unless we act quickly, there will be no water for hundreds of thousands of Las Vegas Valley residents in just three years.


i am assuming that 'acting quickly' means getting water from somewhere else. and how long will it be before the people of somewhere else get tired of sending their water into the desert so the people there can continue to live their unrealisitc lives? not long, farmers and ranchers are already upset at the prospect of the city of las vegas pumping from the colorado river.

china and australia in both countries, the water situation is beyond critical
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby topcat » Tue 21 Aug 2007, 23:05:55

Just remember when you are drinking that water.......

fish have sex in water!!!


I'll have my Jack Daniel's straight up!
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 09:28:05

Sinister wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')f you are referring to the whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting for quote, mark twain said it, and i just thought it was a funny addition to this post.


No worries, I saw it for what it was. I once read that the Colorado River is used 7 times before it 'almost' reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Imagine how the Mexicans feel? ; - )
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Re: Need help with what to do? Mr.Bill and others

Unread postby threadbear » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 13:32:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
Interestingly, I cannot think of a single water war in the last half dozen centuries? Can anyone else?
.


Actually, yes. The Palestinian/Israeli situation has a lot to do with controlling water.
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