[jboogy]

In light of the recent market volatility combined with the mortgage/hedge-fund meltdown ,I'd be interested to know what Mr. Bill and some of you other money guys think is the near and long-term future of U.S. economy.Thanks

[Roccland]

[mel1962]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '[')img]http://bp0.blogger.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/RrLd7hEKkCI/AAAAAAAABzI/XCRDb65OSJM/s320/titanic3d3.jpg[/img]

[jboogy]

I read your analyses everyday Rocc, I want to know what some of these other hardcore guys think too.MR. Bill?

[firestarter]

mmasters , Montequest, Threadbear, et al please chime in also.

[steam_cannon]

As long as we're going with a Titanic theme...

Bush: "I'm the king of the world!"


Seriously though, I see the US in the same situation as the Former Soviet Empire. We are closing in to a point where we will not be able to meet our debt obligations or continue functioning as a unified economy due to a combination of problems.

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

The US economy is like a family living in a house where the wallpaper is old, the lawn is dying from drought, the rugs smell of must from leaks when it rains and the man of the house is a total @$$. Oh and the leaking roof needs to be replaced because it's about to fall in like their neighbors did. Of course because the credit card is maxed out and no one's job brings in any money home, there is no money for a new roof and when it fails to keep the rain off their heads due to slow rot or fast collapse, TSHTF.

P.S. If you live in such a household, it ain't a bad idea to have a tent or some other way to keep the rain off your head. Just in case the man is wrong about the roof lasting forever...

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'I')n light of the recent market volatility combined with the mortgage/hedge-fund meltdown ,I'd be interested to know what Mr. Bill and some of you other money guys think is the near and long-term future of U.S. economy.Thanks

[evilgenius]

I've said somewhere before that if it comes to a nuclear strike on the US the US won't shoot back. I said that for two reasons. First they will recognize the need to encircle and fight for the ME. They will recognize that to shoot back would eat up much of what they have for that purpose, maybe too much. The second reason is that the US will probably be in worse than recession at that time, should it occur. It is a kind of catch twenty two here because no nation, not even Russia, is going to launch a first strike against the US unless they perceive it as being down enough so that there might be a chance they could get away with a first strike. So, if anybody is considering, do we go to big war next? The answer is probably not. Next year? Maybe.

[HorneyGeekBoi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I')'ve said somewhere before that if it comes to a nuclear strike on the US the US won't shoot back. I said that for two reasons. First they will recognize the need to encircle and fight for the ME. They will recognize that to shoot back would eat up much of what they have for that purpose, maybe too much. The second reason is that the US will probably be in worse than recession at that time, should it occur. It is a kind of catch twenty two here because no nation, not even Russia, is going to launch a first strike against the US unless they perceive it as being down enough so that there might be a chance they could get away with a first strike. So, if anybody is considering, do we go to big war next? The answer is probably not. Next year? Maybe.

[jboogy]

nuclear war? where did that come from?I'm wondering if the fed is going to lower interest rates and what would be the result of that?Do you guys think we're about to see a sustained ,major sell-off of the market?,If people try to dump stocks this week,will the PPT step in big-time?,Is the economy destined to tank soon because the banks are apparently not going to issue mortgages for awhile?How big a part of the U.S. economy was housing over the past 5-7 years?If the fed lowers the rate will the dollar plunge and will this lead to foriegn banks dumping dollars?Basically are we on the precipice of an economic meltdown?Monte, can KSA ramp up production?I've read their water cut is huge and ghawar has been irrevocably damaged as far as what future potential production could have been.

[Heineken]

I don't see how the US economy can stand without housing. Houses are about the only thing left that we build.

[phaeryen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') don't see how the US economy can stand without housing. Houses are about the only thing left that we build.

[evilgenius]

Leaving war aside, which is to say I only referred to it because depression is necessary as one of the conditions before anyone would attack the US that way - the other being a military loss in Iraq, yes, we are headed into at least a recession. As for the dollar hitting the skids, that has already happened. It hurts the poor in the US when the impact of it is, however, allowed to fully show itself. Look, the dollar is down against the euro and the pound so much that it is a disaster. It is not down against Asia, where it really matters. As long as Asia does not break the position it is in all of those cheap goods in Walmart will stay relatively cheap. Gasoline will have room to go up.

What I think is that the people in charge are now ready to reduce the demand for gasoline in the US. They are getting ready to not only unwind the Yen, but the rest of Asia as well. It will blow up in their faces, both for the US and the Chinese, if they let it go too far. What they have chosen is to increase the price of things but in a controlled manner. This way, housing crash, allows them to kill growth and the threat it brings of wage explosion that might offset the higher prices and by those higher prices increase demand for the average guy's remaining dollar, thus reducing demand for gasoline. This way allows them to blame everything on market forces, and they can be seen as the champions that defend the little guys against the evil Reds that want so much of their money.

The financial people are poised to make most of their money from building and sustaining China. Money is about power and organization, it doesn't rely on a country full of egotistical jingoistic fire breathing simpletons to make it happen, not if it has found a better way.

[mmasters]

The media is starting to have a difficult time keeping things calmed. I'd expect the stock market to be volitile going forward. I think it's likely we may see a small crash soon where the government comes in and authorizes some debt restructuring/ bailout plan to restore confidence (loan people more money so they can keep paying their current loans). I also think another false flag operation is likely which would be advantagous towards a lot of market money rearranging hands and the fed dropping the rate. Depending on the event perhaps globalization would be affected... It is a bit ominous that OPEC is announcing on Sept 11 (perhaps 911 is apt since their announcement will reveal an emergency?)

[Heineken]

Yes, there is widespread talk, all of a sudden, of the Fed dropping the rate. Mmasters, do you think that would be inflationary in the current environment? And very hard on an already weak dollar, right?

The $8 jump in gold on Friday was interesting and may have had something to do with all this.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'Y')es, there is widespread talk, all of a sudden, of the Fed dropping the rate. Mmasters, do you think that would be inflationary in the current environment? And very hard on an already weak dollar, right?

[Heineken]

The whole economy is a coke addict, mmasters. It's as scary as it is crazy.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Well, a lot of big institutions take losses for tax purposes in the third quarter. Have you heard of triple witching in October. Expect to see a slide through the fall and then a pick-up in the winter energized by a moderate Christmas sales season. The summer driving season is coming to and end in a month and the oil speculators have anticipated that, starting in the second week of July or so. The big inventory build in housing will continue this summer due to a weak back-to-school selling season, a significant price decline will occur in 2008, and the market will bottom out early in 2009 when a mild brief recession will be in effect. Expect the economy to pick up in the 2010 - 2012 time frame.
G

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'W')ell, a lot of big institutions take losses for tax purposes in the third quarter. Have you heard of triple witching in October. Expect to see a slide through the fall and then a pick-up in the winter energized by a moderate Christmas sales season. The summer driving season is coming to and end in a month and the oil speculators have anticipated that, starting in the second week of July or so. The big inventory build in housing will continue this summer due to a weak back-to-school selling season, a significant price decline will occur in 2008, and the market will bottom out early in 2009 when a mild brief recession will be in effect. Expect the economy to pick up in the 2010 - 2012 time frame.
G

[MrBill]

We are in the middle of a financial crisis in the USA at the moment, but world growth still looks like it is expanding at a 5% p.a. clip.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese economies are not immune from a slow-down elsewhere in the world, especially such a large consumer as in the USA, but so long as there is residual growth elsewhere in the global economy, then those exports will increasingly flow in that direction. And the growth story in Chindia at the moment seems quite self-sustaining in the short to medium term.