[Terrapin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'W')hat do you propose Tony?

[retiredguy]

I saw the results of a poll the other day concerning "must have applicances." Cars were number one ten years ago and they remain number one today.

Considering the infrastructure we have built around the car in the US, this is going to be one big hurdle to jump.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') was reading something about China the other day (was it here?) where they mentioned that historically countries tend to mess up the environment as they get richer before they start to clean the environment up again.

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') know that the last hospital I used to work in had dedicated “monitor” circuits for fancy electronics. I had been told that those circuits were extra “clean” without surges and spikes. (Maybe that was also to reduce appliance induced harmonics?).

I wonder how big a problem it is?

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I') read a news snippet last week about some argument over whether or not a school in (I think) Australia was going to have air conditioning, as temperatures would hit maximums of 27 deg C during term time. Some idiot was saying the needs of the kids must come first.

[MOCKBA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Terrapin', 'I') am not saying it will be easy. It could well be that “driving” does disappear completely but it is not going to happen this decade so let’s help folks make the transition to it rather than trying to do something impossible.

[gg3]

Terrapin, excellent analogy about launching the lifeboats in an orderly manner.

However that is also a high-syntropy solution because it has a high embodied information content: everyone has to behave in an orderly manner, rather than insisting on partying on deck until the ship is about to capsize and then clawing & scratching their way to the front of the line for the lifeboats. The greater the degree of syntropy, the lower the probability, so I still think it's more likely that the fertilizer will hit the ventilator.

---

Transport will end up requiring an increasing degree of individual ingenuity, and different vehicles for different purposes.

Someone might have a bicycle for their local errands, and an electric bubble car such as the Zap Xebra for local runs involving multiple passengers or bulky cargo. They would be a member of a car-sharing club for occasional access to a biodiesel/hybrid for longer trips to destinations that were not practical for bus or rail. They would tend to use public transport for repeat trips such as commuting, and intercity rail or bus for leisure travel. Air travel would be reserved for emergencies such as visiting someone in the hospital or going to a funeral.

Tradesworkers would still have their minivans and pickup trucks, but these would be biodiesel plug-in hybrids or electrics. (I have just started looking into the issue of how to get my local client site visits back on 2 wheels again, havng tried it years ago and found it not feasible at the time; we'll see if it works this time...) Tradesworkers who don't need to carry tools & materials to sites, e.g. after having deposited same on site on the first day of a multi-day project, could use motor scooters or bicycles depending on distance.

What's needed badly is something very much like the Twike pedal/electric hybrid, except a) mass-produced at lower first cost, i.e. under $10k, b) thin-film flexible PV material permanently applied to the roof for supplementary daylight charging, c) replace the tiller with a steering wheel or handlebars so you can balance against inertia on turns (tillers are OK in slow delivery vehicles, see also the classic "S&D Freighter" of the 1920s), d) enable it to run on pedal power only, which is not possible with the Twike as presently designed, and would extend range considerably on flat ground.

What's also needed is to get people over the idiotic idea that a mode of transportation has to resemble a living room. A cushioned seat, an enclosed compartment in which to sit, fresh air ventilation and perhaps heat for the winter, and a radio for essential information on the road, are sufficient in most cases. In hot climates, air conditioning, as a disability-access feature, on prescription, for those who have relevant health conditions.

---

Schools underground: Yes, but windowless rooms, no. What you do is build the classrooms around a central courtyard that is exposed to the sky (perhaps with a glass roof?), or you use earth berms to get the needed thermal benefits in above-ground construction.

Homes: ditto. However, in residential construction, unlike in commercial & institutional buildings with fulltime professional maintenance staff, we need methods for waterproofing and damp/moistureproofing that can last the life of the structure.

---

About tradesman bicycles.

The problem is carrying tools.

First of all, large backpacks are ruled out due to issues of muscular/skeletal health impact. Weight belongs on wheels, that's what wheels are for.

Second, only small light loads on the handlebars due to steering safety issues. However, a container up front could be used for carrying a lunchbox if needed, and should be built like an automobile glove compartment (solid walls, bottom-hinged door facing the rider).

Third, the standard rear rack is insufficint in terms of a) weight capacity and b) position. Half of it is practically below the seat, and loads hanging over the rear are a no-go due to weight distribution.

Fourth, side panniers are OK but need to be made of solid material, fabric panniers are a bad joke for tradesman applications. Intelligently-designed panniers (creationists can go eat poo, we engineers own that phrase dammit!) should be rectangular and have access from the sides as well as from the top (hinged top & side panels, lockable). With panniers attached, having top surfaces flush with those of the carrying rack, a wider load could be placed on the rack. This should still be a relatively light load and not too large.

The design concept I'm presently working on would involve side panniers and a light folding handcart designed to easily mount the panniers to it whilst on client sites.

One pannier for the usual telco tool kit (more than rugged enough to handle bumps etc.), plus one to hold a knapsack with a laptop (a thousand bucks of delicate electronics bouncing around on the road, eek!). That leaves the other laptop (yes we carry two: one PC, one Mac) in a knapsack on my back, which is an unacceptable design compromise longterm but could be tolerated short-term.

The folding hand cart would basically need to be a frame with wheels, having brackets designed to hold the panniers; it would be strapped to the rear rack above the panniers while on the road. Thus the bike could be locked on the street, and all of the gear hooked onto the handcart to take up to the client's site. Though, what I'm actually going to do here is contact all my bikeable clients and have them ask their building management about the rules re. bringing bikes on the elevators, since leaving a bike on the street around here is asking for it to be vandalized or worse.

Better of course would be a detachable bike trailer that could actually function as a hand cart on its own, though again, the issue arises as to "what to bring on site" vs. "what to lock up (and risk) on the street."

BTW the Extracycle mod won't work for me, it makes the bike too long to get on elevators. And speaking of elevators, scoping out the elevators at the BART (underground/subway) stations in the relevant areas is also an issue that has to be solved up front: the bike has to go in the elevator with both wheels on the ground.

I'll post something around here somewhere when I have results to report....

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oyota Motor Corp.'s plug-in electric car may have less than half the range of a competing vehicle planned by General Motors Corp., people with knowledge of both companies' development programs said.

GM wants its Chevrolet Volt to travel at least 40 miles after being charged at a normal household outlet, while the Toyota model may go no more than 20 miles on a single charge, said the people, who asked not to be identified because details of the plans are still secret.

[Novus]

GM actually has quite a few smart people working for them it is just management always kills whatever ideas their research departments come up with. In the 90s GM produced an electric car with an 80 mile range. They know how to make these things but they choose not to make them.

[joe1347]

The other difference between Toyota and GM is that Toyota will likely be selling a short range plug-in Prius in a few years while GM delays selling the Volt due to 'engineering problems'.

What's GM's USA market share today - low 30 percent range. GM will be lucky to have 20% in not that many years unless they start offering cars (in the US market) with high fuel efficiency.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')But you know what?

"Only" 20 miles sounds great too.

[steam_cannon]

This is like if Toyota was planning to build bicycle factories.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oyota Motor Corp.'s plug-in electric car may have less than half the range

[Eli]

It all comes down to batteries that is the only tech that they are working. The motors are known quantity.

GM I think has a better line on Iron Phosphate batteries. If you could build a battery that could hold the power of 5 gallons of gasoline you could own the world.

Or at least a nice little chunk of it.

[cube]

I never understood the logic of "plug in" hybrids.

what's the point?

A hybrid can NEVER be designed to have batteries hold enough energy for a decent range because if it did then there's no point in being a hybrid. You might as well just go full electric. If such a car was ever made it would be the dumbest transportation invention since the advent of the Segway. Another reason of course is if you wanted a decent range you'd have to carry so many batteries there wouldn't be any space left for an engine-generator and a fuel tank.

This brings us back to batteries that have such a small range what's the point in plugging it in?

[nero]

Well I think a plug-in electric car with limited range is adequate for most situations as long as there is the backup of the gasoline engine. The big problem with pure electric cars is the fear that the average consumer will have that they will get stuck in the middle of nowhere without any way to power up the car.

The statistics of the car under gasoline power don't have to be great. There just needs to be a way to get the darn thing home if your batteries are dead.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')his brings us back to batteries that have such a small range what's the point in plugging it in?

[lper100km]

At some point, 20 miles range will seem to be a wonderful accomplishment. 40 miles range will seem miraculous. Roughly, that limits average human movement to a distance of 20 mile max from home base in any direction and traveling at a speed of maybe 25 mph. Sort of equivalent to horse back distances. Wells Fargo redux.

Think about this. The ability to own even one of these vehicles is going to be drastically limited. Why? Because initial acceptance will be slow – who wants to ride around in a tarted up golf cart when Mr. Jones still has his big shiny SUV – and by the time every one really wants one – because Mr. Jones has finally decided that he wants one – it will be too late. Suddenly there is a demand to replace the domestic auto fleet with EVs, Wow. In 2003, the total no. of passenger vehicles alone in the USA was 231,000,000. Max sales ever recorded was in 2001, with roughly 8m vehicles sold. Average is more like 2-3m/yr. So, let’s say that the industry can retool and produce 10m EVs per yr. That will be 23 years to replace the total existing fleet in all its redundancies, not even allowing for replacements after a nominal 5yr. effective life. If a 5yr effective life is factored in, the fleet size will never grow beyond 50m unless manufacturing is increased further. And all of this starts in which year?? The scale of this is enormous. Can it be done? Who knows, but I would think the odds are against it.

As the crisis deepens, all manufacturing will be impeded by lack of materials, manufacturing energy, work force shrinkage and the unreliability of delivering any products over long distances. Add to this, the inevitable deterioration of highways and local roads – lack of bitumen, for example – so better make that EV an EV_ATV, and get maybe 10 miles range at 5mph. And, who says there will be a reliable electrical grid in the future to provide that convenient, overnight battery charge?

Sell GM, Toyota and invest in stud farms.

Or walk.

[Twilight]

It's better to have an imperfect product selling and feeding information back than it is to have a perfect product on the drawing board while the banks own your factories.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')his brings us back to batteries that have such a small range what's the point in plugging it in?

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'A')t some point, 20 miles range will seem to be a wonderful accomplishment. 40 miles range will seem miraculous. Roughly, that limits average human movement to a distance of 20 mile max from home base in any direction and traveling at a speed of maybe 25 mph. Sort of equivalent to horse back distances. Wells Fargo redux.