Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

I'm taking this low oil price as an opportunity

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 00:56:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
LOL! Yes, it means that often you are buying gasoline below the spot price. :roll:


Yes, and my reasoning tells me that at other times I'm buying at well above the spot price. There is no reason for it to work in one direction and not the other.
Do not take from this that I am in some "there is no peak oil, it's just big oil ripping us off" state of denial.
I just don't think the two are mutually exclusive, we can be getting gouged and be post-peak oil at the same time.

Revi, I'm aware that gasoline is the hook, not the money maker. I mentioned this earlier, when I was talking about my acquaintance with the independent station. Around here, as far as I am aware, the franchisors typically give the operators of the franchise stations 2 cents per litre, regardless of the pump price. The independents get whatever they can. When the franchise stations lower to below wholesale they can either match and take the loss, or hold price and hope to outlast.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 15:59:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
LOL! Yes, it means that often you are buying gasoline below the spot price. :roll:


Yes, and my reasoning tells me that at other times I'm buying at well above the spot price. There is no reason for it to work in one direction and not the other.


Except the laws that prohibit it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby Starvid » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 18:07:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'R')ead the book "Oil on the Brain" by Lisa Margonelli. They don't make much money at all on the gasoline. They make most of their profit on the big gulps and chips and cigarettes. The price of a gallon is determined by market forces, yes, but the stores are only making pennies of profit per gallon. If it gets to be a hassle to sell gasoline, they will be out of the business in no time. I think that within 5 years there will be a lot of places where it's not economically feasible to sell gasoline. Why drive a tanker up a road for 100 miles to sell gas to people out in podunk, when you can sell it for a better price closer to bigger towns. I think that there will be a lot of little places that are not going to get gas.

That means either stock up, like a farm might have a tank of diesel, or do without. It won't make much sense to drive 100 miles to fill your tank, and then drive 100 miles back to where you live. You'd arrive with a half a tank, and you'd have to save the other half to fill up again. Cars are not long for this world.

Your reasoning is mad.

Look, selling gasoline is pretty much zero profit, ok?

So, if retailers start going out of business for some reason, the reaming reatailers can put up prices a bit, actually get a profit margin on the gas.

Then customers can

a) drive really far to refuel
b) have big tanks at home
c) pay a little more at the local station

98 % will choose c)
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
User avatar
Starvid
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun 20 Feb 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Uppsala, Sweden

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby Revi » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 23:15:14

I agree, that people can and will pay more for gasoline, but they won't like it. They will start to get belligerent. Cheap gas and TV are the bread and circus of the US. When the price of gas goes up people get really wound up. It's like the price of tortillas in Mexico.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 13:23:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
LOL! Yes, it means that often you are buying gasoline below the spot price. :roll:


Yes, and my reasoning tells me that at other times I'm buying at well above the spot price. There is no reason for it to work in one direction and not the other.


Except the laws that prohibit it.


I am aware of no such Canadian laws. Perhaps I am misinformed.
Certainly there is no impetus for such laws to be enacted in Canada, as gas is heavily taxed in Canada, and it is not a flat tax.
In fact we even have tax on tax, where one tax is calculated, then another one is calculated on that total, and so on.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 16:17:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
LOL! Yes, it means that often you are buying gasoline below the spot price. :roll:


Yes, and my reasoning tells me that at other times I'm buying at well above the spot price. There is no reason for it to work in one direction and not the other.


Except the laws that prohibit it.


I am aware of no such Canadian laws. Perhaps I am misinformed..


A bit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince 1990, the Competition Bureau has conducted six major investigations into allegations of collusion in the gasoline industry. It has consistently found no evidence to suggest that periodic price increases resulted from a conspiracy to limit competition in gasoline supply. Instead, it has always found that market forces such as supply and demand and rising crude oil prices caused the price spikes. In fact, after each increase prices fell to normal levels.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')anadian wholesale prices, which are published and are quite visible to competitors and customers, tend to be benchmarked according to prevailing prices in neighbouring regions in the United States. This is due to the ability of Canadian refiners to sell most of their output into large U.S. markets. In fact, two refineries in the Atlantic provinces are primarily export-oriented.

Given the commodity characteristics of gasoline, commonly published wholesale prices among competitors is a normal practice and insufficient to raise suspicion of conspiracy. Moreover, published wholesale prices rarely represent actual transaction prices, as volume discounts are usually applied to most sales. Discount programs vary for wholesale customers, which reduces the probability of a conspiracy.


Link
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 00:07:27

I am aware of those competition bureau investigations Monte, (rightly or wrongly you'll have a hard time finding a Canadian motorist that believes them) however I still don't know of any Canadian laws (as you mentioned a couple of posts back) that regulate the profit margin of gasoline.

I repeat, there is no impetus for our government, or any of its bureaucracies, to regulate gasoline profit margins, as they charge tax as a percentage of price, not as a flat per litre tax. When pump prices are high it is a huge tax windfall, both federally and provincially. (Actually in parts of the GVRD there is a flat tax, a transit tax applied. I forget what it is exactly, 5 or 6 cents a litre I believe. This is in addition to federal and provincial taxes.)
When the discrepancies in prices and the wild jumps of 10-15 cents a litre day to day start to disturb the public the politicians stir about and commission an investigation. It's an annual ritual it seems.:)

I don't really think we are getting anywhere here, I am prepared to agree to disagree, unless you would like to continue this discussion.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 02:05:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', 'I') am aware of those competition bureau investigations Monte, (rightly or wrongly you'll have a hard time finding a Canadian motorist that believes them) however I still don't know of any Canadian laws (as you mentioned a couple of posts back) that regulate the profit margin of gasoline.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Regulation of retail gasoline prices is under provincial jurisdiction. Each year, the Bureau receives numerous complaints about gasoline prices. Complaints are examined to determine whether the provisions of the Competition Act have been violated.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 12:32:58

"Regulation of retail gasoline prices is under provincial jurisdiction."

I think maybe you misunderstand what this means. It means exactly what it says.
It doesn't say "provinces exercise their jurisdictional power to regulate retail gasoline prices".

The provinces that do exercise this power are Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Quebec.

"Each year numerous complaints are investigated."
People don't trust their governments or bureaucracies Monte, at the best of times. They trust them even less when there is a tax windfall to be had and the governments are seen as being tools of big business to start with.
You'd have a tough time finding a Canadian that sees any value in these investigations.

For instance each of these reports that I have read makes the claim that retail price follows increases in spot price up, lagging as much as possible, because no retailer wants to be first to raise. This flies in the face of what people see on the ground. A good example is Katrina. When New Orleans was hit Greater Vancouver area prices sored, there was no lag at all, they positively leaped as soon as the reports of the levee break came in.
This summer is the first time I have ever seen pump prices actually lag spot price increases. Everyone I know is wondering why. We're counting our blessings and feeling uneasy about it.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 16:25:43

Man, you have a serious case of the denials.

Gasoline is a commodity.

Supply/demand determines price.

Gasoline stations only make a per cents/gallon over the spot price.

End of story.

And gasoline companies make their biggest profits in a declining price environment, not a rising one.

Can you tell me why?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby Revi » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 20:35:01

They make money when the price is up a bit, but the store owners only make money when we want to buy a big slurpy. They are selling off inventory. They'll make some money and that will be it.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 21:33:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')an, you have a serious case of the denials.


I was thinking the same about you.:)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline is a commodity.


We agree.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')upply/demand determines price.


To some extent. If there is a shortage of supply fuel tanks run low/empty and price skyrockets.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')asoline stations only make a per cents/gallon over the spot price.


Agree, around here for franchise stations it's two cents per gallon, regardless of price above or below spot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nd of story.

Agree, we aren't getting anywhere here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd gasoline companies make their biggest profits in a declining price environment, not a rising one.

Can you tell me why?

No idea. Given that gasoline companies are posting record profits in what my eyes tell me is a peaky but rising price environment I'm not even sure it's true.
Certainly the petroleum branch of the company I work for is making record profits, in fact they are presently supporting the animal feed division I work for, which is being adversely affected by high grain prices.

Can you tell me why any disturbance anywhere in the world instantly raises the price of gasoline already in the service station tanks in British Columbia? I know, it follows spot price, however it sounds like potential future supply problems are applied to today's fuel. Supply and demand? What are they going to do, pump it back out and ship it somewhere else where there is a shortage? Pump the crude out of the storage tanks at our local refinery and ship it somewhere else?
It's as though I'm a lumber mill owner and there is a forest fire in another country which disrupts logging operations, so I raise my prices on lumber that I have already cut.
I don't think consumers here would object if prices rose lagging the spot prices, I know I wouldn't, but it's more the instantaneous jump on any bad news anywhere that raises our ire.

Once again, do not take any of this to mean that I deny peak oil, I am only expressing a belief that gouging is not only possible, but probable. What better time to gouge than a time of shortage? What better time to speculate prices to new highs for that matter?
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 21:58:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd gasoline companies make their biggest profits in a declining price environment, not a rising one.

Can you tell me why?


No idea. Given that gasoline companies are posting record profits in what my eyes tell me is a peaky but rising price environment I'm not even sure it's true.


It's very true. Think it through. You are still selling at the higher price when your costs go down.

In a rising price environment, your costs have gone up, but the retail price has yet to follow suit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nce again, do not take any of this to mean that I deny peak oil, I am only expressing a belief that gouging is not only possible, but probable.


Yet, no evidence exists to support that belief.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 23:01:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
It's very true. Think it through. You are still selling at the higher price when your costs go down.

In a rising price environment, your costs have gone up, but the retail price has yet to follow suit.



Yes, to the first, I see evidence at hand that pricing is sticky on the way down. This I would expect, and I would not expect it to mean windfall profits, but instead to represent product delivered to refiners that was purchased at a higher price, which is working it's way out of the system.

I see no evidence of the second. My eyes tell me that in my location when there is a potential blip in supply that raises the price of oil retail price follows suite within hours, not days, weeks, or months.

I will admit, (already did previously) that of late prices have been very stable, this is the exception, not the rule. In fact this is the first time in a number of years that I have seen this happen.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 23:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', ' ')I see no evidence of the second. My eyes tell me that in my location when there is a potential blip in supply that raises the price of oil retail price follows suite within hours, not days, weeks, or months.


Not talking about the price of oil nor gas stations, I am talking about production costs for the oil companies.

They make their most money in a declining price environment.

It is common sense if you think it through.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 10:10:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot talking about the price of oil nor gas stations, I am talking about production costs for the oil companies.


To clarify, are we talking now about production costs, as in getting oil out of the ground and refining it, or are we talking about the costs to the retail arms of these oil companies? I think maybe the discussion changed ground here.
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 21:37:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oiless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot talking about the price of oil nor gas stations, I am talking about production costs for the oil companies.


To clarify, are we talking now about production costs, as in getting oil out of the ground and refining it, or are we talking about the costs to the retail arms of these oil companies? I think maybe the discussion changed ground here.


We are talking about production costs.

But...

95% of all gas stations are not retail outlets for oil companies. They are ma & pa operations. Independently owned, even if the sign says Shell, Exxon, etc.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby oiless » Tue 07 Aug 2007, 22:16:42

Hmm... in Canada if you see a station that says Esso, Shell, Chevron, Petrocanada, Mohawk, etc., it's a franchise. Yes the owner/operator has some say in it's operation, but the franchisor has a lot of say, such as what products are carried in the store, how they're displayed, how often the bathrooms are cleaned, uniforms for the staff, and of course what gas price is displayed on the billboard.
As franchises without pricing autonomy from the parent company, I would consider them part of the retail arm of the company who's name they bear.

Independents tend to have names like Jim's gas, Paz Fuels, Rainbow gas, etc., and they are independent, in that they determine what products they carry, they shop the wholesalers for fuel, and they set the price, which is as much as the market will bear in their particular location. (Usually of course this ends up being what everyone else is selling for, except for the ones that are off in the sticks.)
User avatar
oiless
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 300
Joined: Sat 25 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: British Columbia, Canada

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 00:49:54

The cost of gasoline comes from these factors:

Crude oil 59%

Refining 10%

Distribution and marketing 11%

Taxes 20%

At a nickel add on at the pump, gas stations account for a little over 1% of the cost of gas at $3.25/gallon.

Some states have markup laws prohibiting stations from charging less than a certain percentage over invoice from the wholesaler.

So oil company profits or losses from gasoline come before the actual sale at the pump...with the exception of the 5% of gas stations they own where they make about a nickel on each gallon.

Myth: High gasoline prices are caused by price gouging
"In a rising gasoline price environment, oil companies tend to lose money at the petrol pump, because cost of supply is outstripping price of sales. In fact, spectacular profits for gasoline marketing (the service station) are made in rapidly falling price environments. In neither case do we believe there is systematic price manipulation on the part of the major oil companies."

http://energy.senate.gov/public/_files/ ... timony.pdf

So much for "gouging at the pump."
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: How is it that oil price goes up and big oil get more $

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 08 Aug 2007, 00:53:27

And in closing, the price of gasoline at the pump is set by the market, not by someone.

How do you set the price of something sold at auction?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron