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Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby max_power29 » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 05:28:15

Here in the Springfield/Eugene area the retail stores and restaurants are still packed to overflowing and road traffic is still robust as ever. However, road rage seems to be getting worse every day.

Housing sales and prices are slowly going down. My neighbor one house up the street from me has been trying to move for like two years now, but I don't think anyone ever puts offers in on his house. Hes been trying to sell it for almost twice as much as my almost identical house has been appraised for. Now his new big dodge truck has a for sale sign in the window.

My neighbors who live in the town house apartment across my driveway just bought a new huge shiny dodge truck just like the one one my other neighbor is trying to sell; same color and everything and a new VW bug. His old late model huge truck sits for sale across the street. I think my neighbor trying to sell his house and truck will eventually go bankrupt. It obvious he owes more on his assets than they are worth and thats why they will not sell. Both my neighbors at the end of my driveway and the ones with the two new vehicles have really expensive looking
new off road vehicle toys. I'm pretty sure they all rent.

I just bought a new yamaha virago 250, because Ive wanted a motorcycle since mine was stolen 10 years ago, for both fun and commuting to work (40 mile round trip) It gets 80 miles to the gallon, I paid cash for it, and it is a very nice v-twin cruiser with plenty of strength for what I bought it for. I bought a small motorcycle instead of a large one because of my knowledge of peak oil. I will still be able to commute to my job as long as the job exists now. Yesterday some little guy in a gigantic jacked up truck yelled at me in traffic "HEY! DON'T YOU THINK THAT BIKE IS A LITTLE TOO SMALL!!!!!??" I will still be riding my motorcycle while that guys truck will be completely useless soon. I bet most of those gigantic truck/suv drivers have micropenis syndrome. I think my motorcycle looks cool.

Image

I have also already bought almost all of the spare parts it will ever need because I hate inflation and trying to find late model motorcycle parts. I imagine motorcycle parts will be extremely rare and expensive in the near future. I also have about 5000 miles worth of gas stored for it.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby fluffy » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 11:30:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'E')urope is just lagging the US by a few years. We are going down a similar road, just feeling smug that it is all "in moderation" while we gradually accumulate the same dose of excess. Here in the UK we have average house prices at 7x average salary and rising, buy-to-let investment (on credit taken out at low rates), people buying plasma screens, SUVs hitting the roads, food inflating at 15%, gargantuan misallocation of capital investment (unless your real goal is to employ the largest possible labour force during construction as a public-private works scheme rather than acquire and make eventual use of the fixed asset), and to make matters worse, a large chunk of the last is American-style greenfield suburbia.


I just can't believe that prices are still rising.. our housing boom makes the US one look like a small bump. Rents are nowhere near covering interest payments on similar properties.

Oh, and you forgot wall-to-wall adverts for even more loans and credit cards. How many loans have you taken out today?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'W')e can't maintain this. The only way we even got this far after we shut down our manufacturing industry is setting ourselves up as the world's broker so we make money off every trade whichever way it goes. That's not an occupation with long-term prospects.


Turning the country into a tax haven for dodgey 3rd world billionaires? Probably not the best idea.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby eric_b » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 13:01:36

Gonna play devils' advocate here. I live in a state capital (Madison), downtown. Between the university and all the state government you'd never know the economy may be heading towards a recession.

Construction everywhere around here. I mean construction mania. Beep beep beep. I live just a few blocks from the capitol building and there's a 13 story condo going up here they are just finishing. Huge. It used to be a little parking lot.. and I think I preferred it that way. Not many open spaces left now. Many high rises going up. All sorts of other construction, including road construction all over the place. I've never seen so many cranes as I've this past year. Crews descending on stretches of roadways and digging things up, replacing water and sewer stuff. Resurfacing. Roads don't last long here with our harsh climate. It's a constant battle to keep them in good shape and I fear PO things may go downhill quickly.

So, no, at least around here things appear to still be booming. Could just be inertia at this point, I don't know.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby Barbara » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 13:03:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '
')I just bought a new yamaha virago 250, because Ive wanted a motorcycle since mine was stolen 10 years ago, for both fun and commuting to work (40 mile round trip)

maxpower, being in Italy I know everything about bikes (many people here use scooters and bikes). Keep in mind that the more kilometers you drive, the bigger the bike must be. A 250 cc won't last more than three years if you make 40 miles per day. A 600 cc. would be a better investment, if you plan to use it until TEOTWAWKI! :roll:
But hey, that Virago is something absolutely wonderful!!! If you were in the EU, people would look at you with envy eyes... :)
(sorry for the OT)
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby NotMyBlood » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 13:14:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'G')onna play devils' advocate here. I live in a state capital (Madison), downtown. Between the university and all the state government you'd never know the economy may be heading towards a recession.

Construction everywhere around here. I mean construction mania. Beep beep beep. I live just a few blocks from the capitol building and there's a 13 story condo going up here they are just finishing. Huge. It used to be a little parking lot.. and I think I preferred it that way. Not many open spaces left now. Many high rises going up. All sorts of other construction, including road construction all over the place. I've never seen so many cranes as I've this past year. Crews descending on stretches of roadways and digging things up, replacing water and sewer stuff. Resurfacing. Roads don't last long here with our harsh climate. It's a constant battle to keep them in good shape and I fear PO things may go downhill quickly.

So, no, at least around here things appear to still be booming. Could just be inertia at this point, I don't know.


eric_b - was Madison part of the real estate boom in the last 2-5 years? I think I read somewhere it was. Anyway, I think the places that are hurting now are the places that were booming before. Florida, parts of Cali, Vegas, No. Va/DC. The bust is happening in pockets of the country, at least that the impression I get.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby gnm » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 13:21:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'm')axpower, being in Italy I know everything about bikes (many people here use scooters and bikes). Keep in mind that the more kilometers you drive, the bigger the bike must be. A 250 cc won't last more than three years if you make 40 miles per day. A 600 cc. would be a better investment, if you plan to use it until TEOTWAWKI! :roll:


Thats a good point Barbara. And something a lot of people forget. There seems to be some magic ratio where it gets better (at least in cars) - must be some sort of minimum horsepower for the size of vehicle. Like generally speaking a small car with a 4 cyl will last more or less as long as a large car with a V8. But if you have a size ratio where the engine is worked too hard it just won't last...

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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby Baldwin » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 15:07:01

I've been noticing on computer game forums, the average age of the computer is rising. Gaming computers used to be rather up-to-date with technology. Many people are still using Pentium 4's and nVidia 5x00 and 6x00 generation video cards (which are 3 years old).

Still, relatively few people have medium range (or better) dual-core processesors and nVidia 7x00 or 8x00 video cards (or the ati equivalent).

I myself haven't bought a new game in almost a year...
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby Twilight » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 15:44:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', 'G')onna play devils' advocate here.

Construction everywhere around here. I mean construction mania. Beep beep beep.

So, no, at least around here things appear to still be booming. Could just be inertia at this point, I don't know.

Hell yeah, I'm seeing the same thing in the UK, the construction industry is of a similar size to financial services (vast) and it's as hot as China. But equally what I am seeing is that what is being built is the wrong stuff if you accept the way of thinking around here. Skyscrapers, car parks, city blocks of nothing but office space, and outside the big cities it's housing developments.

But I know the industry, and I know it's got project lead times and an order backlog. The concrete skeletons being thrown up and tiled with fancy tiles of which no-one is ever going to do a repeat run*, if you're seeing it now, the planning and financing was agreed years ago, the order placed six months before the hoarding showed up.

The credit crunch carpet is being pulled harder and harder now, but there are still years of work in the hopper that got fed in just now. It would take nothing short of a 1997/8 Asian Financial Crisis literally freezing contractors' bank accounts to halt it. I suppose it could be called inertia in the face of available evidence, but if we take the situation at face value, it's just a natural time delay. When the next recession comes around, we are going to be treated to the usual gallery of stupid sights these events generate whenever they collide with capital investment.

Making money off the building side is cool, but I don't envy the people who will have to sell that stuff, or worse, who buy it at the price.

* Sorry, pet hate of mine.
Last edited by Twilight on Fri 03 Aug 2007, 15:55:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby jboogy » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 15:54:46

There's commercial buying and building my way too,residentials been dead for awhile but as has been said here before;a lot of this commercial stuff's been in the works for awhile,lots of dough already spent. a long freight train heading downhill with worn-out brakes,an object in motion tends to stay in motion.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby Troyboy1208 » Fri 03 Aug 2007, 23:06:43

How about i live in central Florida with people supposedly moving here in droves and the six houses they built around me and went on the market in February are still on the market....three foot grass and all. If its booming then how come all the empty new houses?
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby max_power29 » Sat 04 Aug 2007, 13:31:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('max_power29', '
')I just bought a new yamaha virago 250, because Ive wanted a motorcycle since mine was stolen 10 years ago, for both fun and commuting to work (40 mile round trip)

maxpower, being in Italy I know everything about bikes (many people here use scooters and bikes). Keep in mind that the more kilometers you drive, the bigger the bike must be. A 250 cc won't last more than three years if you make 40 miles per day. A 600 cc. would be a better investment, if you plan to use it until TEOTWAWKI! :roll:
But hey, that Virago is something absolutely wonderful!!! If you were in the EU, people would look at you with envy eyes... :)
(sorry for the OT)


I will ride it "into the ground" then as they say in the united states. Like I wrote, I bought almost all of the spare parts (multiples) i'll ever need. I know motorcycles parts wear out fast. Are you saying the engine will give out? I've heard people boast that they put 75000 miles on theirs and its still running great. I put a 17 tooth front sprocket on mine to significantly lower the RPMs and extend engine life, fuel efficiency, and top speed. Its like a completely different motorcycle with the new sprocket. It runs a lot smoother.
Last edited by max_power29 on Mon 06 Aug 2007, 20:08:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby TommyJefferson » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 11:10:26

Some rural parts of the US are experiencing good economic times because retirees sold houses at the top of the market in boom areas and are moving their assets to these "more affordable" parts of the country.

I'm seeing that for lake houses here in Texas. Lots of people moving here from California and Florida with big wads from the sale of their properties in those other places.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby Twilight » Sun 05 Aug 2007, 22:16:15

Check this out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BBC', '[')b]The average cost of a house in England will break through the £300,000 mark in the next five years, research suggests.

The National Housing Federation (NHF) warned prices are now almost 11 times the average wage and will rise further as supplies fall further behind demand.

To avoid a looming crisis the NHF urged the government to act on its promise to build three million homes by 2020.

However, it also said a housing crash was unlikely...


Prices on paper are beyond the affordability of much of the middle class, the new generation is locked out of the market, and the proposed solution is the government entering the market with subsidies?!

Excuse me.

[smilie=5censored.gif]

We are fucked.

Anyone who thinks this is a great time to tap equity is setting themselves up to be [smilie=5squeeze.gif]

I bet this situation sounds familiar to the Americans on this board. It is a little different though. Luckily, the banks and building societies are saying no to everyone not pulling in a fat salary with a massive chunk of cash, so not every buyer is going to be ruined. But those managing to buy property as investments and pay the mortgages with rent, they could be wiped out. If the prices crash, I don't see rents holding up and paying for the mortgages they signed.

How a government house-building programme is supposed to help is beyond me. Prices will fall (good), property speculators ruined (pyrrhic), housing oversupply created (bad) and we will gain tracts of superfluous suburbs in the already saturated South-East (bad), at taxpayer expense (sigh).

Everyone pays the price. And it sounds... expensive.
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Re: Add your Anecdote to show the economy is slumping . . .

Postby chumley » Mon 06 Aug 2007, 15:52:56

things do not seem that bad in the burbs well outside of philadelphia. I live in an older well established (40 years) neighborhood and the vast majority of my neighbors were here when I bought back in 1998.
not many houses go up for sale in this neighborhood, but when they do they sell within 1 month even in todays market. On the other hand drive thru philadelphia and all you see is economic despair. Philly is a shambles, massive unemployment, very little in way of jobs, super high crime, abandoned buildings,decrepit row homes, lots of employment age african american men milling about on the streets. I wish I was more than an hour north of the city

That being said, I feel that this holiday season and the follow up review of the holiday season in January is going to provide some bleak news. The economic ramification's of the housing bust are lagging the actual burst of the bubble. There is always a lapse in time before the effects are felt. I have a sense of foreboding for this holiday season. Only time will tell though.
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