[IrrationalExuberanceMonky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IrrationalExuberanceMonky', '"')Even if heavy investments were made now..."

About as much chance of that happening as Hugo Chavez having a round table with George Bush and the late Milton Friedman on Exxon acquiring PDVSA.

NOC cash cows, gotta love 'em.

[Starvid]

Well, Chavez has fucked up PDVSA, no question about that. But think of Saudi Aramco.

They definitely have
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')1. Experienced and skilled people in the field.
2. The latest technologys.
3. Conservative production rates.

[Chesire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', 'L')et us remember that Mexico is the third largest exporter of oil to the US, after Canada and KSA. Will they use the remaining oil for internal consumption or send it all north to the US? If they stop exporting by choice, what do you think the US will do?

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')ntil December 31, 2005 the report says proven reserves were about 8.978 billion barrels, while yearly production was 1.322 billion tons. If this rhythm continues oil will run out in the time stipulated..

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'B')etter get busy on that border fence.

[vision-master]

The oil squeeze has just begun

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roduction at Cantarell fell by 12% in 2006 and is forecast to fall an additional 15% in 2007.

In response, the Mexican government has increased Pemex's capital budget. In 2007, Pemex will invest $2.3 billion in Cantarell. A new water-separation plant will let Pemex handle well output with as much as 9% water. The company began drilling its first horizontal wells in 2006 in an effort to get more oil out of the Cantarell formation. That should slow the decline of production. Pemex projects that production will decline by only 200,000 barrels a day in 2007, about half the decline projected without these steps. But production is still on track to fall to 600,000 barrels a day by 2013 from 1.5 million barrels a day in 2007.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'B')etter get busy on that border fence.

[vision-master]

Carlos Santana!

[whereagles]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'C')arlos Santana!

[garyp]

My rough prediction has Mexico effectively stopping exports in 2011, unless the US collapses its economy, when it might last till 2015.

Much depends on how long KMZ production can be held up with Nitrogen injection - but suggestion is only a few years - which suggests big declines in 2009

[MonteQuest]

The magnitude of this can be easily seen when one looks at the numbers.
Mexico used to be the #2 supplier of oil to the US after Canada.
Now it is #4 after Venezuela.
It used to be 15% of our imported oil, now it is less than 10%.
Here is the changing face of oil imports to the US.
Nov 2005
#1 Canada
#2 Mexico (88% of exports to the US)
#3 Venezuela
#4 Saudi Arabia
#5 Nigeria
#6 Algeria
#7 Iraq
#8 Angola
#9 Ecuador
#10 Virgin Islands

July 2007
#1 Canada
#2 Saudi Arabia
#3 Venezuela
#4 Mexico
#5 Nigeria
#6 Algeria
#7 Iraq
#8 Russia
#9 United Kingdom
#10 Virgin Islands

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'l')educk: As for what is the U.S. doing to prepare?
Why waging war on the world, of course!

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'l')educk: As for what is the U.S. doing to prepare?
Why waging war on the world, of course!

[shortonoil]

garyp said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y rough prediction has Mexico effectively stopping exports in 2011, unless the US collapses its economy, when it might last till 2015.

[oiless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '
')
If you don't have that need, a NOC is not needed and you can replace it with punishing oil taxes or production sharing agreements (80-90 % of the oil profits going to the state is not unusual). It would be smart to link the tax levels to the price of oil. Then the IOC 's know that they'll get fair profits if they do their job, but that their profits will only grow through more efficient operations, not increasing oil prices. They'll also not have to worry about falling oil prices hurting their profits, as the tax would automatically be reduced in such a situation. Would help when you have to do massive long term capital investments.

[azreal60]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow NOC's and their basket case socialist "wealth re-distributors" don't seem to provide this.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('canis_lupus', 'S')eems to me if they mean "seven years" they really mean "pretty $@$% soon...anybody have any suggestions?"

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azreal60', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow NOC's and their basket case socialist "wealth re-distributors" don't seem to provide this.

[Byron100]

If Mexico really does run out of oil to export, and therefore pulling the rug out of their economy, wouldn't it be prudent for the United States to support a communist-style government down there (remember, this is far different than the 80's, when we had the Soviet threat to be concerned about), which at least has the potential to put the brakes on the flood of refugees northward?

You gotta think, if 10% of the people down there starve, the streets of Mexico City would turn into rivers of blood, as well as triggering an unstoppable wave of refugees streaming into the United States, even in the face of being mowed down by desperate military forces stationed at the border. But if Mexico went communist, a la Cuba of the late 1950's, they would at least have a chance to redistribute the vast wealth of the upper class, keeping the people fed and content enough not to flee north or incite a massive civil war.

Feel free to shoot me down on this, just tossing out silly ideas as usual...hehe.

[Twilight]

Communism is as resource-dependent and resource-intensive as capitalism. It is just a question of allocation.

Resource-wise, Cuba is in good shape. North Korea isn't.

How much potential does Mexico have? I think it will go the way of Colombia. In other words, it doesn't matter who wins, left or right, or whether there is a stalemate. The important details will be the same.