[Zardoz]

We seem to be facing a unique double-whammy situation.

We have the very real possibility of a global stock market meltdown, as described in such great detail here, and discussed in Roccland's thread. The scary AHM development also sounds ominous as hell, to say the least.

Even if stocks don't get totally nuked, they're certainly vulnerable to more major hits like they took last week, due to the simple fact that the cheap, easy credit orgy is apparently over.

Meanwhile, the commodities traders have bid the price of oil up to near-record levels, and there's a very real possibility that it could go far higher next week. Consider these factors:

- We'll be starting the week with the price of both NYMEX and WTI crude at $77.02.

- The current high oil prices have not reduced worldwide demand, which continues to increase. The traders have to be coming to grips with the reality of oil demand's inelasticity. How can they not be?

- The traders may becoming aware of the fact that global oil production is not increasing, and may in fact be declining slightly.

- They are certainly aware that OPEC continues to resist increasing production, and has no good reason to do otherwise.

- We have to assume that they know about Pemex's startling announcement that they'll be out of the oil exporting business in the very near future. If the traders don't know about it already, they'll certainly hear about it next week.

- The supply situation may tighten even more next week. DantesPeak noted the following in the "Another record" thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll indications are that OPEC shipments, especially from Persian Gulf OPEC members, slowed from the end of May to at least mid-July. Due to shipping delays it takes around six weeks or so to see imports start to fall. And the fall has come to the US already – US crude inventories have fallen for the last three weeks - especially in the area where West Texas is delivered for futures contracts, where inventories have fallen the last nine weeks in a row.

[bobaloo]

Can't offer any further analysis but I agree, my spidy sense is tingling. Headed to the feed store this afternon for another dozen bushels of feed corn and a few more sacks of beans.

[jdumars]

Here's my prediction for next week:

Monday:
Dow closes 22+
WTI Crude -1.40
Gold -12.20
Silver -.21
---------------

Tuesday:
Dow closes 45+
WTI Crude +1.05
Gold +10.50
Silver -.02
---------------

Wednesday:
Dow closes 112-
WTI Crude: +2.01
Gold +5.12
Silver +.35
---------------

And so on...

[AirlinePilot]

I see monday's market as a buying opportunity. I think a lot of other folks do also. It will remain to be seen what really transpires. I dont believe 77$ oil is afffecting the market yet. There is still no real awareness of the oil issue at the moment.

Remember the moves while large by number standards are not huge percentage wise...yet.

I'm inclined to think at worst there will be more selling, but the reality here is we are in uncharted waters and speculating is very tricky right now.

[wxman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') see monday's market as a buying opportunity. I think a lot of other folks do also. It will remain to be seen what really transpires. I dont believe 77$ oil is afffecting the market yet. There is still no real awareness of the oil issue at the moment.

Remember the moves while large by number standards are not huge percentage wise...yet.

I'm inclined to think at worst there will be more selling, but the reality here is we are in uncharted waters and speculating is very tricky right now.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pinions, please.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roccland', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pinions, please.

[vision-master]

And gas just dropped to $2.75 gal? What's up with that!

[Eli]

things are getting dicey but I don't think we will see it melt down next week. But then again who knows?

I think Jdumar's prediction will probably be the most accurate.

There are so many things lining up against the global economy that Central banks around the world are going to do everything they can to hold it all together. We will see there moves as totally futile but the CNBC crowd will eat it up.

We might just see an announcement from OPEC in the coming months acknowledging their production problems. That would be an interesting thing to see happen, if it becomes widely known that oil production is no longer going we could see PO setting everything off.

It is important to remember that this truly is a global economy, just because the US is hitting some bumps it doesn't mean that Chindia is going to let the music stop. I am thinking now that global growth is going to continue right up until it physically can't. When that happens it is going to be a super mega crash.

[I_Like_Plants]

I too have an ominous feeling. It will be interesting to see if my leaving California will end up being leaving just before the "flame front". As in, economy takes a dump, California has a good shaker, something.

I just sold some furniture to a programmer who's buying a $900k house, who figures things will stay just like they are now.

[Eli]

You guys need to go turn on CNBC and see them talking up all the great buys that are out there right now.

Things are going to come apart just not next week, this crash is so huge it has to build some more, things are just showing a little strain right now.

[Roccland]

What we need is a good war.

I mean another good war.

[vision-master]

"We don't need, need more trouble".

[Jack]

Monday will probably be down...the AHM issue that Roccland spotted will scare many.

But peak oil isn't on the scopes yet. Look at the futures markets - you can buy a contract for September 2007 at $77.02.

December 2012 is $70.56.

If there's a supply crunch today, the only logic for the 2012 price is expectation of much lower demand or far higher supply.

When you see the 2012 contract at, say, double the nearest month - that's the time to start getting scared. Because that means the futures traders have looked into the pit and seen peak.

Not the futures pit...a different pit...

[Chesire]

Mirror , mirror on the wall will the stock market rise or fall ?

Mirror, mirror please tell me will I have more or less fiat money ?

/shrug There are too many players in the game and to many factors in play to make an accurate guess I would think.
Of course there are also a million guesses being made so one things for sure. The following monday someone will be crowing I had the right guess for last week.

[firestarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chesire', 'M')irror , mirror on the wall will the stock market rise or fall ?

Mirror, mirror please tell me will I have more or less fiat money ?

/shrug There are too many players in the game and to many factors in play to make an accurate guess I would think.
Of course there are also a million guesses being made so one things for sure. The following monday someone will be crowing I had the right guess for last week.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('firestarter', '.')..I have a bad feeling about next week, but an even worse feeling about the next few years.

[Roccland]

1 Trillion?

I think he left a few zeros off.

This has the potential to freeze Earth's planetary orbit around the Sun.

[eXpat]

White house asking traders not to panic link

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter meeting his economic team at the White House, Mr Bush said: "The world economy is strong and I happen to believe one of the main reasons why is because we remain strong."


Markets remained unimpressed by the comments, with some analysts warning that the high-profile intervention might do more harm than good. "By appearing on television is an unprecedented group interview, the White House is validating concern about the credit markets", said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist with Miller, Tabak and Co.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', 'W')hite house asking traders not to panic link