In a stunning reversal of its previous dogmatic ‘business as usual’ stance, the International Energy Agency has belatedly accepted the reality of Peak Oil, and the huge impact the phenomenon is going to have on the entire world.
The crucial and potentially devastating nature of the point at which humanity has used half of the world’s oil reserves - with the remaining half being overwhelmingly lower in quality, in smaller and harder to reach fields, and in less stable parts of the world – has been a BNP theme for more than five years.
Up until now the Chevron oil company has been the only mainstream oil industry player to have publicly acknowledged the clear and present danger posed to the global economy and to a world population which has exploded in recent decades on the back of the oil-based ‘green revolution’ of the 1960s. Hence for the IEA to join the Peak Oil camp is a massive step towards giving the issue the recognition it deserves.
The Paris-based Agency is made up of 26 non-OPEC oil producers, including the UK, South Korea and Denmark. Its board is made up of energy ministers or other senior representatives from each member country. Its power is shown by the fact that after Hurricane Katrina in the USA it was able to get its members to release an extra 60 million barrels of oil to offset the disruption.
The International Energy Agency report avoids the truly apocalyptic predictions that appear to follow logically from a full appreciation of the Peak Oil crisis. And it ‘spins’ the oil supply crunch it predicts as a problem of excess demand and lack of refinery investment (the first point is in any case an integral part of the Peak Oil analysis, the second is the consequence of oil companies being reluctant to invest massively in an industry whose raw material is going to be in increasingly short supply).
But despite such continuing coyness about the inescapable geological facts underlying the crisis, the new IEA report has contributed to the widest grasp of the real issue so far. Its prediction that the current record oil price will soar even higher as the supply/demand crunch hits over the next five years is certainly helping to concentrate minds. Radio Four is serialising a play about a Peak Oil researcher this week, and scarcely a day goes by without a Peak-related story appearing in the financial columns of the main British newspapers.
entire article at: entire article: http://www.bnp.org.uk/reg_showarticle.p ... entID=2617




