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THE Dubai Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Urbanization of Dubai, 1973-to-2006

Unread postby eXpat » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 06:40:57

Another article Matt here,( I took the link from your website), to think that all that money could have been used to modify the area, to make it more fertile, to make irrigation works such as channels and the like, maybe genetically modify existent crops to make them stronger to stand in the desert, and so on; and it has been wasted instead building that! And that is from people that have joined recently the developed word, and that still have the saying "my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, ....".
We as species are really fu**k up.
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Re: Urbanization of Dubai, 1973-to-2006

Unread postby mekrob » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 07:06:55

It's not all fucked up. On page two,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')* The Dubai Metro system, once completed, will become the largest fully automated rail system in the world.

At least they got one project right. And in the very least, unless UAE gets hit with war, these places will attract a lot of business from the upper echelons for decades to come.

So while it's not the best investment, it is an investment that will return something over a long period of time which can then, when they see that it's all going to hell, be turned into much more useful, longer term projects.

Since a lot of this money heads towards the citizens and expats rather than just royals, it's likely that people will start to put it to good use...err, better use than more of this.
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Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 14:36:09

Leanan posted this on the front page:

Dubai Oil Output Two-Thirds Below Official Figure

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roduction of Dubai's crude oil has fallen as much as a third in the past two years and is a fraction of that recorded in some government statements, company documents show, undermining the already fragile position of one of the world's top three oil price reference points.

Current output in the booming Persian Gulf sheikdom, one of seven semi-autonomous enclaves in the United Arab Emirates, is some two-thirds below the figure released by the national government, according to calculations by Dow Jones Newswires using data from the previous operators of the fields. It has fallen as much as a third in the past two years.

The Dubai government took over operating the oil fields in April from a joint-venture led by ConocoPhillips Corp. (COP), which has since complained of poor financial returns due to the structure of the previous operating agreement.

Daily output in the first three months of this year fell to between 65,000 barrels and 80,000 barrels against the 240,000 barrels stated on the U.A.E. government's Web site.

Gosh, I wonder why crude futures are getting so high lately?
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 14:59:39

That explains all that fancy new developement including artificial islands shaped like palm trees. They've been ramping up thier tourism economy for several years now.

And, we might want to look out for Dubai, in light of these new numbers, reducing exports for more domestic use.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 15:14:19

If true, wow. 8O

Not that they are an important producer, but it would add extra weight to the theory that it's looking like the UKCS without data transparency out there.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby MacG » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 15:29:40

I wish Halliburton all luck with their recent relocalization to Dubai.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 17:05:30

The EIA and IEA sometime rely on official statistics when it is difficult or impossible to independently verify actual production figures. It appears to be that in the case of the UAE, the official statistics are being used.

It makes you wonder just how far off they (the EIA and IEA) are from actual production; although I don’t think they are off significantly (less than 0.5% - or 400,000 bpd) for the entire world, as errors tend to balance each other out. The only real check on these figures is measured inventories, which are mostly only available on OECD countries on a monthly basis.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Concerned » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 18:20:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I') just read an article that there is a massive pilot shortage all around the world because China and places like Dubai have burgeoning airline industries.

One of the EU socialist countries wants the Govt to pass a law to prevent "poaching" of pilots.

We take their labor, it's "capitalism".

They take ours, it's "poaching."

Gotta love it!

Capitalism - Great on the way up, shitty on the way down.


An old problem going back decades for many 3rd world countries where society would train doctors, engineers et el to have them lured to the west. Thats excellent when beneficial to "our interests" the reverse of course is unacceptable.
"Once the game is over, the king and the pawn go back in the same box."
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 19:10:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother example with multi billion-dollar technology of gas injection to boost old fields is Oman’s Yibal oil field. The new technology was introduced in 1990 - after 30 years of water injection and pressure maintenance. In 1997 Yibal reached the peak. In 2001 production declined by 65%. The collapse was a total surprise for many experts.

YIBAL


Dubai looks like a Yibal rerun. I wonder how many other ME fields will eventually experience the same kind of problems. It would sure wreck ones day if this happened at Ghawar!
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 21:36:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'T')hey've been ramping up thier tourism economy for several years now.
Yeah. What an intelligent reponse. "Oh, look, oil is finite and transport fuels will start to become scarce so let's make Dubai a global tourism and business destination."
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Thu 19 Jul 2007, 21:47:20

The lack of transparency in the Arab state is going to result in death on a near unprecedented level.

Though, its looking like the fast production crashers are right.

Its falling like a rock.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 01:05:07

Leanan also posted these back to back:

Japan's nuclear plans in disarray

Russia plans big nuclear expansion

:lol:

Didn't anybody put two and two together last year?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil sector accounted for 5.1% of Dubai's gross domestic product last year, down from 5.6% in 2005 and 24% in 1994.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Etika » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 06:57:38

One shouldn't take Dubai as any kind of a representative country in Middle East in pretty much anything even though it might be tempting.

Dubai's oil reserves and production are pitfully small when compared to other Mid-East countries and it has been long apparent that they will run out a lot sooner than in other countries in the area. That fact has also been recogniced by the leadership of the country and as a result a lot of the income from oil has been used to diversify the economy with good success (less than 10% of Dubai's GDP came from oil last year). Thus Dubai is not anyway representative example of Mid-East countries in the rate of production change or the survivability of goverments and countries in the area.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby seahorse » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 09:15:40

Dubai's reserves may be small, but it is representative of the ME in other ways, they've been overstating their reserves for a long time and they are in decline, just like SA.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 20 Jul 2007, 09:33:58

Yes, it is scarey that these kinds of declines could be in the works at Ghawar. One of the reasons why I believe that the peak took place in '06 was how the Saudis were acting in the time leading up to then and through the year (too much to go into here). Let's just say that the horizontal drilling and the water injection, and tales of higher water content than had been in the crude, warned of a coming time of not just drop off, but significant drop off.

In another post somebody accused the Saudis of siphoning Iraqi oil to cover up the fact they were going off the cliff. I don't really go for that, then again they could hide what would stay silent because it is in the best interest of smugglers to keep quiet. They could cover up a shortfall temporarily, except the shortfall, given the size of Ghawar and the techniques used on it, should overcome any coverup in a short time. The next best way to cover up after that would be to take the line the Saudis are now, that it is in their best economic interest to stick to a lower output. If they are falling then the cover will come off in the next few-eighteen months when the so called economic reasons are discredited. If by then the Masters of this world haven't tanked the global economy then times will be very, very bad.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Zardoz » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 08:13:18

Let's hope they have the financing completely secured for this sucker:

Dubai skyscraper world's tallest

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is thought Burj Dubai will eventually be 693m (2,275ft) tall...

...There is speculation that, spire included, the final height could be more than 800m, but Emaar is keeping structural details secret.


Image

Image

Image

Website

Horribly slow-loading home site

Why do I have a bad feeling about this?
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Ayame » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:04:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', ' ')Why do I have a bad feeling about this?


Because in ancient civilisations monument construction sped up just before collapse.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:39:42

And increasing monument construction brought collapse forward.
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Re: Dubai oil production goes off the cliff

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 12:39:41

Makes me think of the tower with the Eye in the Lord of the Rings...

What a target!
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Dubai's Foreign Investments are as bad as their Domestic

Unread postby mekrob » Wed 22 Aug 2007, 11:10:20

So it appears that Dubai is going from investing in short-term, illogical buildings and systems in the middle of a desert to investing in short-term, illogical buildings and systems in the middle of another desert.

Bloomberg

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ubai agreed to pay as much as $5.1 billion for a 9.5 percent stake in MGM Mirage and half of the Las Vegas casino owner's biggest development, giving controlling shareholder Kirk Kerkorian a partner as MGM expands into real estate.


Why can't they be like their neighbors to the west (Abu Dhabi)?
I want to put out the fires of Hell, and burn down the rewards of Paradise. They block the way to God. I do not want to worship from fear of punishment or for the promise of reward, but simply for the love of God. - Rabia
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