[mkwin]

I was hoping some of you guys could help me out. When explaining peak oil to people I usually get asked the question why the official peak forecasts (USGS/EIA/IEA) are far away. I talk about the paper barrels etc, but I could do with a definitive list of weaknesses in their assumptions.

Could people in the know list the reasons or weaknesses in their assumptions in this thread? Also, any historical errors from the USGS would be appreciated.

[pup55]

No problem. Just point out that these agencies rely on foreign governments to give them estimates of their reserves, and there is no audit procedure. They have to take their word for it.

So in the case of Saudi, for example, who claim that they have 245 gb of reserves, we have to trust them. No one is allowed in to check.

So we have built the whole system, economy and everything, on the assurances of a bunch of rug traders that they have enough supply.

[benzoil]

You might also point out that not only do we have to take their word for it, but that all the nations of OPEC "mysteriously" doubled their reserves in the 80's after OPEC moved to a reserve-based quota system.

There has been some news recently out of Kuwait about the size of their reserves being about half of what is claimed. One of the petroleum magazines printed something last year to that effect. Recently, Kuwait's parliament has been arguing about their right to know if this is true or not.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'T')here has been some news recently out of Kuwait about the size of their reserves being about half of what is claimed. One of the petroleum magazines printed something last year to that effect. Recently, Kuwait's parliament has been arguing about their right to know if this is true or not.

[benzoil]

Thanks, kjm! I thought it was PIW, but didn't have time here at work to look anything up.

[Micki]

These agencies don't seem to bother thinking ab outr net-energy out.
They work with the assumption that as long as there is a large QUANTITY of oil, we are allright.

Secondly the articles I've seen from/about these agencies don't seem to have realistic depletion rates/production decline for matured wells/fields.
They work on some sort of theoretical % decline in production rather than looking at what is happening to fields like Cantarell and North Sea.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')hen explaining peak oil to people I usually get asked the question why the official peak forecasts (USGS/EIA/IEA) are far away.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'W')hen explaining peak oil to people I usually get asked the question why the official peak forecasts (USGS/EIA/IEA) are far away.