[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'A')nother article to throw in my vault and pull back out in 10 years.

[threadbear]

PStarr, Isn't it perfectly apt that many North Americans have all of their energy reserves trapped in fat slathered all over their bodies? These people won't have a choice. In order to affordably get where they're going, they're going to have to burn fat, by cycling or walking. Right now, it's not doable, because so many rely on their vehicles to get to work. In the future, if you can't bike there, get there by mass transit, or hitchhiking, Cuba style, you just won't go--and that includes to work. Lifestyle changes, from first to third world status, will put a huge crimp in oil demand increases. My estimation is that consumption can easily be cut by 50%, in North America, China and India, in an economic downturn. Time will tell.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '
')I'm sorry threadbear, but financial/economic meltdown cannot result in a more gradual slope than geologic depletion. It can only make the rate of decline more rapid. Even if you don't agree that we are at geological peak, the infrastructure situation is such that massive investment is required simply to stand still with production, a global depression will cut of any chance of increased capital expenditure.

[shortonoil]

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y estimation is that consumption can easily be cut by 50%, in North America, China and India, in an economic downturn. Time will tell.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y estimation is that consumption can easily be cut by 50%, in North America, China and India, in an economic downturn. Time will tell.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')The sub-prime mortgage problems, for example have little to do with energy costs.

[threadbear]

The interest rate hikes were as much about shoring up the dollar, and applying a bit of a brake on asset inflation as anything else. I didn't claim energy cost had nothing to do with economic deterioration, I said regardless of energy costs, there would still be a financial meltdown.

[shortonoil]

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t will be made worse, initially, by present oil prices, but energy cost isn't the sole cause, at all. The sub-prime mortgage problems, for example have little to do with energy costs. They have more to do with lax lending policy, and the offloading of risk, from banks to the general invester, through rebundling and delivering them to Wall Street.

[Fiddlerdave]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'H')e is right about one thing the old oil fears don't match 2007 realities that is for sure. If people really had any idea how bad things were, they would be scarred out of their ever lovin minds. The 70's shocks were nothin compared to what we are going to be facing.

[shortonoil]

Fiddlerdave said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bernanke's recent speech essentially saying there is no inflation if people don't think there will be inflation from higher oil costs was one of the more desperate PR initiatives I've seen, and told me the current oil prices are the new lows.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ernanke's recent speech essentially saying there is no inflation if people don't think there will be inflation from higher oil costs was one of the more desperate PR initiatives I've seen, and told me the current oil prices are the new lows.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Fiddlerdave said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bernanke's recent speech essentially saying there is no inflation if people don't think there will be inflation from higher oil costs was one of the more desperate PR initiatives I've seen, and told me the current oil prices are the new lows.

[skiwi]

[url=http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2007/db20070710_508965.htm]Remarks by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Monetary Economics Workshop of
the National Bureau of Economic Research[/url]

Those with more time than me and no vegetable plot to tend
may like to peruse all 9 pages. I only managed to get to page 3

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')imilar logic explains the finding that inflation is less responsive than it used to be to changes in oil prices and other supply shocks. Certainly, increases in energy prices affect overall inflation in the short run because energy products such as gasoline are part of the consumer's basket and because energy costs loom large in the production of some goods and services. However, a one-off change in energy prices can translate into persistent inflation only if it leads to higher expected inflation and a consequent "wage-price spiral." With inflation expectations well anchored, a one-time increase in energy prices should not lead to a permanent increase in inflation but only to a change in relative prices. A related implication is that, if inflation expectations are well anchored, changes in energy (and food) prices should have relatively little influence on "core" inflation, that is, inflation excluding the prices of food and energy.

[Micki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith inflation expectations well anchored, a one-time increase in energy prices should not lead to a permanent increase in inflation but only to a change in relative prices.

[EnemyCombatant]

I decided to research our friend Philip.
Just like I research the so-called scientists that deny man contributes to global warming.

Well, there were no suprises.


According to Philip's own website he is a member of the National Research Council.

2002-present Member of Research Team, National Research Council’s Board on Science, Technology, and Economics Policy (STEP) review of the federal Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program

http://www.auerswald.org/

And some of you may not know of them getting funding from <clear throat> Exxon. they also release a report obfuscating the data on global warming.

There is probably more, but you get the drift.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')see:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic30530-0.html



To perpetuate the verisimilitude of prosperity in the face of increasing energy costs, it was necessary to inject large amounts liquidity into the market. The FED saw this as necessary for political reasons after the dotcom bust, 9/11 and to support the administrations aspirations for unlimited war. The CDO/CDS instruments used for this purpose reduced the credit spread, the difference in interest rates paid to reflect risk. This allowed, otherwise, weak companies the funds to absorb these rising energy costs, and keep unemployment at tolerable levels. The jump from $20/b oil to $70/b oil would have certainly sent the economy into a serious recession. A recession that the present administration could not allow, in light of its imperial ambitions.

[Eli]

The interesting thing is that economists purposely sought to exclude food and energy form inflation measures.

Core inflation refuses to take into account energy and fuel in a post peak world that makes no sense at all. TV's are not going to go up nor are cars, because literally peoples incomes will be eaten up or spent on fuel.


I have heard recently on Bloomberg radio people talking about wholesale inflation numbers, that is going to be a growing trend it will not be ignored indefinitely.

We are not going to see the price of cars and tvs and washing machines go up for a long while, we are making far too many of those luxuries right now as the cost of fuel and food speeds by those less fortunate in the world.

[jdmartin]

The ridiculous inflation/cpi data causes all kinds of problems. Example: a 5% COLA I included in my budget this year was attempted to be shot down by a board member who noted that the "official" CPI data last year was only 2.75%. Never mind the "substitution" factor (I'll eat cat food instead of beef because it's cheaper!), nor the "bounce" factor (something goes from $1 to $2 back to $1 in a year shows no 12-month CPI change, despite the fact that the dollars actually left your pocket in the more expensive months). Thankfully smarter heads prevailed and it went through.

Back to the original post, some of what the guy said was right but with the wrong reasoning. I was not surprised to see that the guy's degree was in economics, a surefire route to understanding science

[shortonoil]

threadbear said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y point is, regardless of what energy costs were doing, the policies would have been the same, to stave off recession after the dot com collapse; the inevitable forestalling of a crisis that ends up making it worse.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'J')ust a peak at what denial looks like, thats it right there.

PD,

There will be no political will to go where we need to go with regards to conservation and government mandated programs like CAFE standards etc without a crisis of major proportions. It's always been like that. Unfortunately reacting to this will be too little too late. Jimmy Carter had the right idea I believe but politically and economically those of the time who had the power would not let it happen.