[joe1347]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... ss.opinion


Old oil fears don't match 2007 reality
U.S. vulnerability, economic threat are largely overstated
Philip E. Auerswald

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Congress is debating action to address the nation's dependence on foreign oil. This would seem to be good news. Not necessarily.

While tightening requirements on fuel efficiency is a good idea, many other envisioned policies aimed at "energy independence" fix a problem that no longer exists


But while the nation, as a whole, is not threatened by higher gas prices, it is threatened by oil-alarmism. Exaggerated claims about the adverse impacts of oil price shocks on consumers and the economy have for decades helped justify an unnecessarily assertive, and costly, military posture in the Middle East and elsewhere. They have provided a rationale for billions spent on lease breaks for the oil industry. And now they provide motivation for a new round of ill-considered subsidies, including support for climate-hostile technologies to convert coal to oil, and a dramatic increase in the production of corn-based ethanol of questionable benefit to citizens of the United States, and harmful to citizens elsewhere.

Philip E. Auerswald is assistant professor and director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe1347', 'M')aybe I'm being an alarmist, but I would think that supply disruptions which will result in gas lines are likely and may actually become the norm in not that many years as demand continues to increase without a corresponding increase in supply.

[AirlinePilot]

Just a peak at what denial looks like, thats it right there.

PD,

There will be no political will to go where we need to go with regards to conservation and government mandated programs like CAFE standards etc without a crisis of major proportions. It's always been like that. Unfortunately reacting to this will be too little too late. Jimmy Carter had the right idea I believe but politically and economically those of the time who had the power would not let it happen.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe1347', '
')
If it's in a Newspaper and written by a College Professor - then it must be true!

demand continues to increase without a corresponding increase in supply. Wouldn't taking proactive action now to reduce our dependence on imported oil be prudent on the part of our leaders as opposed to just waiting on market forces - namely much higher prices for gas to force changes?

[frankthetank]

Another article to throw in my vault and pull back out in 10 years.

If i'm able to email, i'll forward this back to Phil!

[Eli]

The guy is a friggin idiot.

He talks about how our oil in the US comes from friendly nations like Mexico and Canada. I guess he has never heard of Cantarell.

And he must not take have taken a serious look at the latest from the IEA.

He is right about one thing the old oil fears don't match 2007 realities that is for sure. If people really had any idea how bad things were, they would be scarred out of their ever lovin minds. The 70's shocks were nothin compared to what we are going to be facing.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he guy is a friggin idiot.

He talks about how our oil in the US comes from friendly nations like Mexico and Canada. I guess he has never heard of Cantarell.

And he must not take have taken a serious look at the latest from the IEA.

He is right about one thing the old oil fears don't match 2007 realities that is for sure. If people really had any idea how bad things were, they would be scarred out of their ever lovin minds. The 70's shocks were nothin compared to what we are going to be facing.

[jedinvest]

Bio of Philip E. Auerswald:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')hilip Auerswald is Director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy and an Assistant Professor at the School of Public Policy. Professor Auerswald's work focuses on linked processes of technological and organizational change in the contexts of policy, economics, and strategy. He is the co-editor of Innovations: Technology | Governance | Globalization, a quarterly journal from MIT Press about people using technology to address global challenges. He is co-author with Lewis M. Branscomb of Taking Technical Risk: How Innovators, Executives, and Investors Manage High-Tech Risks. He has been a consultant to the National Academies of Science, the Commonwealth of Massacusetts, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Washington and a B.A. (political science) from Yale University.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')hile occasionally hitting upon some facts, the article has got the world backwards - looking at all events in terms of the financial fiat dollar, instead of the cold reality of the physical oil.

I see no mention of rapidly increasing dependence on energy imports - for example, gasoline imports have gone up significantly since mid-2005.

Stories like this confuse the public and hide the fact we have past peak light sweet crude in 2005, and possibly most other above averge quality crude grades by now.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Demand destruction, brought on by financial meltdowns, both domestically and in China and India will take care of increasing demand, and a depletion curve that is more gradual, as a consequence, is a scenario we should be anticipating.

[DantesPeak]

Crude oil and condensate production peaked out in 2005 per the EIA and IEA. If someone has some figures that show these conclusions to be false, please produce them.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joe1347', ' ')Wouldn't taking proactive action now to reduce our dependence on imported oil be prudent on the part of our leaders as opposed to just waiting on market forces - namely much higher prices for gas to force changes?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Jimmy The NitWit had a plan for using being independant of crude oil by...oh...2000? Gee....that worked well,

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy do you respond seriously to this sniveling little troll, AirlinePilot? Do you see some affinity perhaps?

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')The entire PO proposition has absolutely nothing to do with money! It is a physical constraint that is being imposed upon humanity by the Laws of Thermodynamics. Money is just an artificial artifact of this underlying phenomena, and will disappear with the energy upon which it is based.