[I_Like_Plants]

I just got back from an electronics swapmeet. Tons of sellers with tons of GOOD stuff, but amazing how it just sat - most of that stuff would not be on the tables at the end of the day normally. I sold stuff and was an aggressive deal-maker, sold about $300 but it took some real patter and work. A friend of mine who usually does well only sold about $200.

Tons of sellers with tons of good stuff because the sellers are kinda desperate, but the buyers not buying because well, the whole economy is down, and 'tronix surplus and Ebay way down.

I took a good old walk around, for old time's sake, since I won't be in this biz any more, but didn't see much I could gurantee of being able to sell on Ebay, since Ebay is so down from where it was 2 years ago.

Interestingly, the farmer's market here in Sunnyvale is hopping, you know you really can get some good prices on vegetables and "artisan?" made stuff. I was hungry and tired so grabbed some sprouted peanuts, a bunch of parsley for some reason, pate' and a big ol' long loaf of that crusty-ass boulangerie bread, swung by the hole-in-the-wall likker store for some beer, and here I am.

I'm still getting the poison of Ebay out of my system, but when I'm in actual recovery mode, I'll be down there sketching folks for tips, come by some time and let me mangle your physiognomy!

[eXpat]

This is my little attempt to sum up the economic situation in the US, that when down (no if), will take too a big chunk of other economies around the world, creating a domino effect, etc, etc.
1) First we have that China doesn't really need to dump the dollar anymore to crash the US economy, they just have to stop buying and the dollar is down. link1 and link2.
2) Housing bubble down: link1 and link2.
3) Financial markets in unchartered waters: link.
4) Markets are not maintained anymore by the Big money, but from the pockets of the small peope like you and me: link.
5) US Government buying stocks to keep artificially the market up, link and doing a good job at that!, link at least for now...
6) Steadily the world is moving from the greenback link1 and link2.
7) US Military expenditures growing: link1 , link2, and link3.
8 ) Personal debt in the US keeps rising: link1 and link2.

The big question is how long do you think this situation can keep going on? months?, surely not more that year from now. Some people may argue that we have survived economical crashes before, sure, but with all this going on at the same time? with global demand rising link and Opec unable to produce more link.
And if it can be prolonged, how? this time we have really scratched the bottom of the pan, so to speak.

[manu]

I thought there would be global collapse at the end of 2006, starting in the U.S. but somehow it has kept going. Not for much longer though.

[MC2]

ExPat, thanks for those links! Really good info there!

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MC2', 'E')xPat, thanks for those links! Really good info there!

[bshirt]

Good post, eXpat.

I sure wish I knew how they keep the game going. I thought for sure TSHTF at least a decade ago.

I can only guess that when it does comes time to pay the piper and it can't be delayed anymore via lies, fiat money machines, smoke and mirrors......well, mother-nature is going to counter-punch fast, hard and repeatably with devastating results.

[eXpat]

That's the thing bshirt, when I was younger I remember, I used to watch documentals such as BBC's Connections , or James Burke's documentary about Global Warming (available in another thread here) or there were very insightful arguments around such as the report Limits to Growth, or the books of Paul Ehrlich, and then because we dodged the bullet, suddently everything was ok; well nature doesn't agree and is knocking the door with the bill...

[oswald622]

apologies if this has already been posted in this thread, but the carlyle group - the financial entity most closely tied to the bushites - put out a memo to its investors in january that there was roughly another 12-24 months before it all comes down. he phrased it as,
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he longer it lasts, the worse it will be when it ends. And of course when it ends the buying opportunity will be a once in a lifetime chance.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oswald622', 'd')on't know if y'all remember, but mike ruppert was fond of saying that this stuff is managed and planned long in advance, and it seems to be connected to synthetic terror... and maybe that's not convincing to you, but i would expect another attack immediately before the TSHTF.

[bshirt]

eXpat: It started for me with "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson/Rees-Mogg (1993). Somehow the house of cards still stands. But one stiff breeze from any direction.....

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', 'e')Xpat: It started for me with "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson/Rees-Mogg (1993). Somehow the house of cards still stands. But one stiff breeze from any direction.

[Dan1195]

I give it 2 years

Reasons. It will take that long for subprime mess to cause the majority of those who will lose that homes as a result to lose them. Remember in the 1920's the the same thing happened with farms starting in 1926.

It may take 2 years for the PPT and investors to run out of gas with theie efforts to prop up the market based on cutting costs, mergers, buyouts, etc, all of which usually result in the significant job losses.

2009 is also the time where crude+condensate production may begin to decline more sharply and total liquid peak will be close at hand. 2008 with its projects coming online may give some false hope that the mainstream media will crow about all the time.

What will happen is you will have rising unemployment, declining real estate prices as consumer energy and food costs continue to rise. The new bankruptcy laws which where designed to keep liquidity in the system by requiring most people to pay back there debts will result in a declining market for goods as people are stuck with no house (foreclosure will be only way to eliminate that ballooning ARM, bankruptcy wont have you here) no credit while still paying your creditors. No way you can afford those consumer goods now. The falling dollar will just make it worse.

At some point investors will realize that inflated prices based on a falling dollar for companies selling goods that more americans cant afford will run its course.

[Kylon]

What form of government will exist when TSHTF? What about after that? Will the government dissolve or continue in a different form? Please post comments.

[Kylon]

I added the "other" option, but it was blocked out.


So I'm saying here, if you think another form of government will be put in place, please post what type, ect...

[eastbay]

Like it or not, it will be probably be race-based.

Other than that it will be mostly small village's and tribal based on simple survival. All those 'modern' political, economic, and social terms will be meaningless.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dan1195', 'I') give it 2 years

...
2009 is also the time where crude+condensate production may begin to decline more sharply and total liquid peak will be close at hand. 2008 with its projects coming online may give some false hope that the mainstream media will crow about all the time.

....

[IrrationalExuberanceMonky]

BS, give me a model of a breakdown.....


I ain't buying it...

Seee you in the doom....

When the market says doom then I'll run for the hills, this is just BS! BS! I say!


Premature doommongering...

[Narz]

I agree with the monkey.

[Baldwin]

Friday in New York may be a Black Friday, or it might wait for Black Monday.

I saw a snippet from Cramer's show on CNBC. (that show Mad Money...he is really a cheerleader that screams). A woman of boomer age asked if she should cash out her retirement account. I was screaming yes. Cramer said as usual, to buy (does he every say sell?). The Shit is hitting the fan slowly and has accelerated this week. My point though is that boomers are getting nervous. If they cash out their 401k's and IRA's..well God help us all. Bernanke, Bush, and other bankers will have their learjets fueled up and ready to go to South America or Switzerland.

[Cobra_Strike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'F')riday in New York may be a Black Friday, or it might wait for Black Monday.

I saw a snippet from Cramer's show on CNBC. (that show Mad Money...he is really a cheerleader that screams). A woman of boomer age asked if she should cash out her retirement account. I was screaming yes. Cramer said as usual, to buy (does he every say sell?). The Shit is hitting the fan slowly and has accelerated this week. My point though is that boomers are getting nervous. If they cash out their 401k's and IRA's..well God help us all. Bernanke, Bush, and other bankers will have their learjets fueled up and ready to go to South America or Switzerland.