[return1880s]

I say we will regress back to the 1880s lifestyle because this is when oil was not yet used, it was just before industral age. Explain further in the post.

[mekrob]

It depends on whom you talked about. If it's Europe and Japan and other parts of the world that are very scientific and progressive, then they'll likely continue to be increasing in technology.

Other parts of the world that are less scientifically educated (Africa, South America, etc) will continue to spiral downwards likely.

Just so we're clear, technology does not equal fuel consumption. I have no illusions about people in Europe and Japan and other places driving in flying vehicles in 50 years or even in personal automobiles. But if they continue along their current paths, then they've got plenty of resources and intelligence to make it work.

[Pops]

The question is too simplistic.

Time does not go backwards and so we won’t regress to an earlier period in any recognizable way.

Certainly there will be things now familiar that disappear. And as has always happened there will be things appear unforeseen.

I think in 2050 we will have regressed to a 2050 lifestyle.

Well some will, I’ll just be watching.

[JPL]

I say, we will split in two directions. Those that want to power-down, and those that want to keep things going 'no matter what'. I'm in the former group - I also have sufficient age & experience to realise that neither camp has a monopoly on truth.

But... I personally think we (power-downers) can keep a medieval level of society going - with perhaps bits of high-tech - but it will take a bit of work. In fact it will be very hard work, but it's better than the alternative scenario.

Just my 'humble opinion...

JP

[Ludi]

No "regression."


BTW, 1880s was post-Industrial Revolution, well into the fossil fuel era.

[chris-h]

No regression.
Possible it will be like snow crash ..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_Crash

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n this hypothetical future reality, the United States Federal Government has ceded most of its power to private organizations and entrepreneurs[1]. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, and private security guards preserve the peace in gated, sovereign housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads rather than the competitors', and all mail deliveries are done by hired couriers. The remnants of the government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where it transacts business that is by and large irrelevant to the booming, dynamic society around it.

Much of the territory ceded by the government has been carved up into a huge number of sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong") or the various residential burbclaves (suburb enclaves). This arrangement bears a similarity to anarcho-capitalism, a theme Stephenson carries over to his next novel The Diamond Age. Hyperinflation has devalued the dollar to the extent that trillion dollar bills, Ed Meeses, are little regarded and the quadrillion dollar note, a Gipper, is the standard 'small' bill. For physical transactions, people resort to alternative, non-hyperinflated currencies like yen or "Kongbucks" (the official currency of Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong).

[Tyler_JC]

Who is this "We" you speak of?

I've never been invited to join "We". I don't know anyone who is a member of "We".

Does "We" include every single human being?

Don't you think you're painting with a mighty big brush?

[return1880s]

"We" represents everyone who states their facts/opinions. 7 people so far "all of you=we" voted that there will be no regression. Do you care to explain how we can maintain current technology in the absense of fossil fuels?

[billp]

Listen to "The road"

Maybe McCarthy is "right on?"

[Ludi]

Different technology - adapting our modern materials and devices to other uses, recycling essentially, will not be "regression" it will simply be a different technology. Adapting available materials to the knowledge we will possess at the time, not some kind of return to the past.

[Colorado-Valley]

If we can depopulate at a successful rate, we could probably have a pretty nice world of parks and wilderness and nice towns and cities, probably powered by some form of fossil fuels.

If we don't depopulate ...

[zoidberg]

I voted for a 1930's type thing, in that I could envision of future of extreme disparities of wealth and poverty - poor masses riding the rails looking for a better future, and with a probable run on the ecosystem in a bid to produce massive amounts of biofuels, a dust bowl. I know the cars around wont be 1930's style autos, but as a general metaphor I think it fits.

[kjmclark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')t depends on whom you talked about. If it's Europe and Japan and other parts of the world that are very scientific and progressive, then they'll likely continue to be increasing in technology.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', 'I') voted for a 1930's type thing, in that I could envision of future of extreme disparities of wealth and poverty - poor masses riding the rails looking for a better future, and with a probable run on the ecosystem in a bid to produce massive amounts of biofuels, a dust bowl. I know the cars around wont be 1930's style autos, but as a general metaphor I think it fits.

[billp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t looks like it would be a good read.

[I_Like_Plants]

There's a hell of a hysteresis in any system where there's population overshoot. Those deer on that island got whipsawed so badly it looked like they'd not be able to keep a population going at all, and the island left untenable for deer until after they were dead.

Easter Island lost the ability to to make canoes, and they ended up eating each other. What did the population go down to, less than 100? Less than 50?

Past Empires tend to end up ruins and a few hunter-gatherers in the surrounding wilderness, who have tales of evil ancestors..... or the Moon people built them buildings or something.

Many European immigrants in the US in the 1600s and 1700s were happy to run off and live with the Indians, we're talking about being perfectly happy in a pre-civilization lifestyle. In their situation, you or I would also.

The characteristic waveform of a relaxation oscillator features some excursion below baseline..... any engineers onboard I'm happy to elaborate.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('billp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t looks like it would be a good read.

[MalcolmV]

I, too, think this is the wrong way to phrase this question. Ideally we would cherry pick sustainable technologies to create the New World. It would be great if we had a better term for "back to the future" than TEOTWAWKI. I've heard it said that the ideal civilization is the middle ages with antibiotics and electricity. In the third world the first uses for electricity are for a light, so one can read in the evenings and to run a refrigerator in the clinic to keep the antibiotics cold.

In the last 100 years we've learnt a few things that we won't forget, like:
Bloodletting does not cure disease.
Typhus is not caused by noxious vapors.
If the pancreas doesn't produce enough insulin one gets diabetes.
Viruses cause polio and smallpox. (I sure hope Connaught remembers how to make vaccines.)
If you wash your hands you'll get fewer colds.
Lack of vitamins cause disease.
There is no reason to plow deeper than 4 inches.
Legumes need to be inoculated to fix nitrogen.
Mendelian genetics

[Windmills]

I think another piece of the question that's missing is the time scale. It's likely that we'll pass through stages before we achieve some sense of relative equilibrium. I might have selected a series of responses to the poll, depending on the time length of the projection post-peak.

In terms of technology, I don't see how there can't be a loss of the ability to use some technologies that we now have. We'll be living in a more constrained, more limited world. I don't see how we can expect to operate in the current manner with less of many things.

I expect the future not to look like the past, but rather a combination of what we can preserve from now, some new things we can create, and simpler methods of living for which there's no substitute.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'I')f we can depopulate at a successful rate, we could probably have a pretty nice world of parks and wilderness and nice towns and cities, probably powered by some form of fossil fuels.

If we don't depopulate ...