[Eli]

This Article from the front page captures what is going on perfectly. Yeah, and it means PO is probably already upon us.


This part of the IEA quote used in the piece.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he concept of peak oil production and its timing are emotive subjects which raise intense debate. Much rests on the definition of which segment of global oil production is deemed to be at or approaching peak. Certainly our forecast suggests that the non-OPEC, conventional crude component of global production appears, for now, to have reached an effective plateau, rather than a peak...

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

"They really are doing their level best to say we are in trouble without saying we are in trouble."

We are SOOOOOO in trouble. Right now.

[Gazzatrone]

There's that 2012 yet again!

{threads merged by Bas}

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
Hi Bas

I think the IEA are currently trying to square an impossible circle. On the one hand they have a responsibility to warn the OECD of an impending crisis, on the other they cannot shout the words PEAK OIL too early, else they loose credability - and that would not help things either, if they are too early. Don't kid yourself that they are not aware of the potential gravity of the situation.

So I think they have taken a very zen-like attitude, which is to point at 'the beast' without speaking it's name out loud.

Others within the organisation have spoken louder, which is something I introduced on this thread IEA admits to peak?

The dragon will roar soon-enough.

JPL

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'f')luffy, I think you have to take a look again at your list.

Iraq first of all is in very bad shape and going to get worse as far as production goes. Every goal the US has set for the current Iraqi government during the surge have not been met. The republicans are abandoning Iraq, the only person willing to fight it out their is Bill Kristol the neocon chicken hawk reporter. I think we need to get him some body armorer and m-16 stat so he can show us how to win this war.

And all the projects in the deep water gulf are continuing to run into problems with ever increasing production costs.

And as far as China goes until proven otherwise everything that comes out of there is worth as much as a tube of tainted toothpaste.

[TonyPrep]

The summary of the latest monthly OMR is here. I've never seen the summary not give a figure for oil supply. Does anyone have access to the full report, which should show this figure?

Of course this can't be true but I'm wondering whether the supply figure is so bad that they don't want to report it. The graph for the second quarter (on the same page) shows a sharp reduction is supply, though this was also true of the second quarter last year (but not the previous year).

[Gvil]

tshtf!

[Zardoz]

It always takes them three to four weeks after the end of a quarter to update this chart, so it's not surprising that it hasn't been done yet. I wouldn't expect it to show the 2Q2007 figure for at least another week.

However, as you said, Tony, they are showing it on the page you linked to, and it looks scary as hell:



That's about 84.8, which is where we were in the second quarter of both 2005 and 2006 . Once again, we get another piece of info reinforcing our belief that we're on the "undulating plateau".

How the hell are we going to meet that 2008 demand figure? 90 MBPD by 4Q2008? Not a chance!

[Ferretlover]

IEA Sees Oil-Refining Flexibility From 2008 Onwards (Update1)
By Stephen Voss Last Updated: July 13, 2007
July 13 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 oil-consuming nations, said refinery upgrades next year will boost the potential to process heavier crude grades, easing market tightness and possibly lowering prices.
During the next five years, investment in equipment will mean refiners will be better able to turn increasing quantities of heavy crude and fuel oils into lighter products such as gasoline, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report today. Global oil demand will jump 2.5 percent next year to 88.21 million barrels a day, it said.
… World oil demand will rise 1.8 percent this year. Demand next year will be led by accelerating consumption growth in China and the Middle East. Oil use in Africa in 2008 will grow at twice the pace of the industrialized nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, IEA estimates show. … Excluding Angola and Iraq, which aren't bound to OPEC production limits, OPEC crude output was 26.63 million barrels of oil a day in June, the IEA estimated, up from 26.61 million barrels a day in May.
…On an annual basis, the IEA estimates demand for crude from all 12 OPEC members to be between 31.1 million and 31.7 million barrels a day this year and between 31.7 million and 32.3 million barrels a day in 2008. The agency doesn't directly forecast OPEC production. Estimates at the lower ends of those ranges reflect the IEA's doubts that supply from some OPEC nations, namely Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Indonesia, can be fully relied upon.
… Even so, OPEC's overall oil production capacity, including crude and other forms of lighter oil, will rise about 1 million barrels a day next year to 35.4 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC oil supply is also expected to rise 1 million barrels a day next year, to 51 million barrels a day.
Bloomberg

[Eli]

Wow! what a great snapshot of how screwed we are.

There is no way to make it from the 84.5 now, to the 88.2 that the IEA is calling for next year. Their own chart doesn't even go past 86.

The IEA is letting everyone know the Emperor has no clothes.

[sjn]

It is strange how IEA (currently) shows a sharper, higher, later peak than EIA. They do at least seem to be showing a clear production peak now though, even while they talk of higher demand, which is all the MSM ever seems to pick up on.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I')t always takes them three to four weeks after the end of a quarter to update this chart, so it's not surprising that it hasn't been done yet. I wouldn't expect it to show the 2Q2007 figure for at least another week.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '.')..OPEC's overall oil production capacity, including crude and other forms of lighter oil, will (NOT) rise about 1 million barrels a day next year to 35.4 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC oil supply is also expected to rise (BUT WILL ACTUALLY DECLINE BY AT LEAST) 1 million barrels a day next year, to (SOMETHING WAY LESS THAN) 51 million barrels a day.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '.')..OPEC's overall oil production capacity, including crude and other forms of lighter oil, will (NOT) rise about 1 million barrels a day next year to 35.4 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC oil supply is also expected to rise (BUT WILL ACTUALLY DECLINE BY AT LEAST) 1 million barrels a day next year, to (SOMETHING WAY LESS THAN) 51 million barrels a day.

[Cobra_Strike]

They must be including fuzzy math in their calculations.

[CrudeAwakening]

Pdf available here

This is being reported in the NZ media thus:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il reserves are running out even faster than previously predicted.

For the last 30 years they have said oil reserves are not in crisis now in a massive u-turn, the International Energy Agency says demand driven by exponential growth will outstrip supply within 3 to 5 years.

[TonyPrep]

Not quite a sudden turnaround. This is an article from last November: link

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The IEA', 'N')et oilfield decline rates average 4.6% annually for non-OPEC and 3.2% per year for OPEC crude. Aggregate levels mask much sharper declines in a 15-20% per annum range for mature producing areas and for many recent deepwater developments. All told, the forecast suggests the industry needs to generate 3.0 mb/d of new supply each year just to offset decline.

[Cyrus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The IEA', 'N')et oilfield decline rates average 4.6% annually for non-OPEC and 3.2% per year for OPEC crude. Aggregate levels mask much sharper declines in a 15-20% per annum range for mature producing areas and for many recent deepwater developments. All told, the forecast suggests the industry needs to generate 3.0 mb/d of new supply each year just to offset decline.

[Cobra_Strike]

They are not denying much at this point, only trying to spin it.