[Sys1]

Air Force and oil

Sorry for the topic's title, but it looked fun to me.
I don't think we are heading for massive oil wars. As we're now in a post peak oil world, the USA are struggling to pay their gazoline bills. Isn't it funny?

Sure, USA could say people not to buy SUV to save oil for fighting evil forces... to keep their SUV rolling to wall-mart... Ahem! Looks unthinkable imo.

I'm more inclined to think to something close to 1984 or Soylent green.

[dukey]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think we are heading for massive oil wars.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't think we are heading for massive oil wars.

[BrazilianPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'Y')es, but those wars haven't been massive.

...yet.

[manu]

No, so it will go nuclear.

[TheOtherSide]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrazilianPO', 'A')lert: Doomerish doom views below!

Definitely long wars will not happen again - too expensive. With Russia beginning to claim the Arctic region, and Canada as well, we will soon see tensions rising. Other nations will follow. I see Australia claiming the Antarctic pretty soon, together with Argentina, Chile, Brazil, South Africa and any other nation that has a crappy base there, with two scientists measuring the migration of penguins.

The US of course will be everywhere, and probably Russia and China, as they will be the only countries able to project power far from their coastlines. All we need is a naval war using all you can get; aircraft carriers, subs, destroyers, etc. (pretty cheap). When one of the parties believes the war is lost and its economy will tank because all oil will go to its enemy, may God help us. All we need is a nuclear exchange and that is it.

Seriously, if I am at war and my enemy has destroyed my forces, and my country's fate is to starve and die in the dark, I would definitely press the red button and at least descend to barbarism in a blaze of glory. I also am pretty sure there will be leaders worldwide that will think similarly. Perhaps not now, but when TSHTF, people might change their minds.

I just hope the other side of the Hubbert's curve is not so steep.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '
')
War between major powers is very unlikely. After self-destroying each other, you've just presented your resources on a silver platter to third country, which hadn't destroyed itself. Much easier for them to cooperate and divide the world into spheres of influence, because it's unlikely the US will have the power to go to Georgia or Ukraine or Vietnam for much longer.

[I_Like_Plants]

USA will NEVER say not to buy SUV - that is impossible.

They are advertising them more than ever on TV, it's unbelieveable.

[BrazilianPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '
')I agree - long wars between equal, major combatants is unlikely, because it's easier to press the button.

Now, the second paragraph is an atrocity. Russia and China do not have any overseas power projection. They can rival the US in subs, but they have to seawater navy, and, even with the most optimistic scenario, they wouldn't catch up for the US for decades. I don't know if you're being sarcastic or ignorant by saying that aircraft carriers, destroyers and subs are "cheap". Furthermore, this war would makes no sense outside of destroying your equipment, because, once again, it's easier to just press the button.

[billp]

Try The Road by Cormac McCarthy if you want to get really depressed.

I recommend listening to the book on a cd player while on an essential non-gas-wasting trip rather than reading it.

Reason is fiction writers include a lot of FLUFF and don't get to the essential points of the story.

But interesting to listen to ... especially if you want to get horribly depressed.

Enjoy our response to us supreme court clerk genera suter. No BS here!

I do tech writing and find it offensive to read BS.

[pea-jay]

WWIII Sustainable? I'd say no, for the reasons mentioned here. Is it startable? Yes, definately and at this point, quite destructive. But the further we get into the fossil fuel decline without the advent of a replacement fuel, and no corn wont cut it, the less destructive, widespread or lengthy it will become. If we get ten years post peak without a conflagaration, any world war will really be a series of simultaneous regional battles between legacy global powers for the few remaining resources. Wait 20 years and all you have left is regional wars with regional outcomes. Wait 50 years and a European conflict will affect the Americas just about as much as Napoleanic Invasion of Russia affected North Carolina.

Of course there are those nukes out there. Still, those nukes dont last forever and any nuclear power will need the resources to stay one. I think its a given for the next 10 years for most of major players. 20? Doubtful... 50???