[evilgenius]

End of 2008, or until something happens that stretches things too far. Katrina wasn''t as big a deal as a Houston destroyer would have been. War in Iraq with US victory isn't as big a deal as war in Iraq with a US loss. Meanwhile they will try to control the inflation generated by high oil with ever higher interest rates. As long as there is no 'something' happening it will work, for a time.

[MC2]

By Christmas we should have an answer. I tend to think we're in for a "long emergency," rather than SHTF scenario. Look for U.S. gas over the 4 dollar and staying there nationwide. That will be a key indicator that there's no turning back.

I think our economy is fundamentally non-sustainable, but don't see the time/date for a collapse. Probably have to raise interest rates soon, and that'll do in the markets. But foreign investors will want a bigger return, so we'll have to do it. Can't keep pretending oil and food aren't part of the inflation picture.

[MrBill]

I predict we will all be here in 2008 predicting the end is in sight. Maybe in 2009-2010?

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') predict we will all be here in 2008 predicting the end is in sight. Maybe in 2009-2010?

[Revi]

Yesterday the stock market reacted to the subprime lending fiasco. Maybe a stock market crash followed by a general economic recession would cause a slowdown which might cause us to use less oil?

It would be a good way to slow things down. I see signs everywhere that things are already slowing down around here. It's pretty quiet in Maine anyway, but it seems like "vacationland" has slowed down a bit. It's still not peak season, but it is starting out slow. The next few weeks will tell. People may not have the money to go on a vacation without taking out of their home equity. That bubble has popped. There are a lot of places for sale now, and I've heard that they are going for way less than the asking price.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')esterday the stock market reacted to the subprime lending fiasco. Maybe a stock market crash followed by a general economic recession would cause a slowdown which might cause us to use less oil? It would be a good way to slow things down. I see signs everywhere that things are already slowing down around here. It's pretty quiet in Maine anyway, but it seems like "vacationland" has slowed down a bit. It's still not peak season, but it is starting out slow. The next few weeks will tell. People may not have the money to go on a vacation without taking out of their home equity. That bubble has popped. There are a lot of places for sale now, and I've heard that they are going for way less than the asking price.

[seahorse]

Following up on Mr. Bill's reflections of Cyprus seeming "quieter." I happen to be in Destin, Florida right now as I type. My family is on our yearly, annual, family vacation. We've been coming here for at least the last 10 years, same condo, everything. I can say, without a doubt, that this year, there are less people here. This condo, and many others, all have signs that say "walkins welcome." I've never seen this before. The condo where we are staying is not full, plenty of parking places in the parking lot, the streets are easy to navigate, the restaurants don't have as big of waits. So, its all nice for us, but I'm sure the local businesses don't like it. We did come two weeks later than we normally come, but I don't think this makes up for the difference. My uncle has a fishing boat here (not commercial). He says the local commercial ship captains say its dead here, worse they've seen it, no bookings. My uncle expressed a belief that many of these ship captains will not survive the summer. Keep in mind that my uncle is fairly well off, an optimist by nature, and I never discuss economics, politics, or PO with him. These are just comments he made in discussing how quiet it seems here.

[MrBill]

Yes, Seahorse, the demand destruction so many of us have been talking about. Not in the total consumption of transport fuel, but in all we give up to keep driving. Crunch time. Scary.

[I_Like_Plants]

Downtown Sunnyvale ain't much, but 2 years ago it was a hopping place, during lunchtime, evenings, and weekends. Now, the farmer's market is going great guns, because you can really pick up some GOOD produce very cheaply, and it's a free place to take the kids. But evenings and weekends are much calmer. Of course what this is, is less people spending money, a general slowdown.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'F')ollowing up on Mr. Bill's reflections of Cyprus seeming "quieter." I happen to be in Destin, Florida right now as I type. My family is on our yearly, annual, family vacation. We've been coming here for at least the last 10 years, same condo, everything. I can say, without a doubt, that this year, there are less people here. This condo, and many others, all have signs that say "walkins welcome." I've never seen this before. The condo where we are staying is not full, plenty of parking places in the parking lot, the streets are easy to navigate, the restaurants don't have as big of waits. So, its all nice for us, but I'm sure the local businesses don't like it. We did come two weeks later than we normally come, but I don't think this makes up for the difference. My uncle has a fishing boat here (not commercial). He says the local commercial ship captains say its dead here, worse they've seen it, no bookings. My uncle expressed a belief that many of these ship captains will not survive the summer. Keep in mind that my uncle is fairly well off, an optimist by nature, and I never discuss economics, politics, or PO with him. These are just comments he made in discussing how quiet it seems here.

[seahorse]

EU, Interesting the differences between Destin, Florida and Poland. Maybe the strong Euro accounts for some of the difference? I don't know. Maybe because the European rail system makes travel a little easier on the vacationer, simply bc Europeans can take the rails and not drive? For example, its a 12 hour drive for me to get here to Florida. I have only two choices, fly or drive, both are expensive.

Also, I have some aunts that sell real estate down here. One says that real estate has tanked in the last few months. Of course, this can be garnered from the news, but its interesting to hear directly from a person with first hand knowledge. She said they haven't sold a condo in 3 months.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') predict we will all be here in 2008 predicting the end is in sight. Maybe in 2009-2010?

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'E')U,

Interesting the differences between Destin, Florida and Poland. Maybe the strong Euro accounts for some of the difference? I don't know. Maybe because the European rail system makes travel a little easier on the vacationer, simply bc Europeans can take the rails and not drive? For example, its a 12 hour drive for me to get here to Florida. I have only two choices, fly or drive, both are expensive.

[mark]

This is going to be the mother of all collapses. End of the world kind of stuff. An empire here or there goes down – no big deal, someone else is just itching to take its place, sort of like an aspiring drug king elbowing up to take the place of a fallen kingpin.

THIS, this is as big as it can get; we shouldn’t expect to be able to divine the time, place or manner of the eruption.

Truthfully, I don’t even know how to prepare! I expect things to get very bad, but it could be far worse than I can imagine; or, we could, by some miracle, manage to remain civil and emerge some decades later a much healthier, prosperous and happier society.

What is clear is that individuals or even small groups will not survive if things get really bad. It’s going to take large groups with tremendous cooperation between members and a determined spirit to lead civilization to safety.

I am pulled each day by either hope or despair. Today it's despair, or at least it was this morning while reading the latest news. Perhaps the PPT got the same jitters and decided to up the ante.

Mostly I just don't know, should we be preparing or simply live out our lives and hope for the best?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', ' ')should we be preparing or simply live out our lives and hope for the best?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'Y')esterday the stock market reacted to the subprime lending fiasco. Maybe a stock market crash followed by a general economic recession would cause a slowdown which might cause us to use less oil?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'T')his is going to be the mother of all collapses. End of the world kind of stuff.

[Roccland]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mark', 'T')his is going to be the mother of all collapses. End of the world kind of stuff.

[manu]

Isn't that Kissinger on the stern of that ship patting Bush on the back?

[MC2]

The financial markets are a bit of question mark, aren't they? I tend to think we are in a "last dance" scenario. The short calls that prompted Thursday's buying frenzy, bolstered by a mild rally on Friday, probably disguised some judicious profit-taking here and there. Still, some pundits are calling for a DJIA at 20,000 in the next couple of years, fueled mainly by foreign investment and the spillover effects on our industries from the developing world's headlong dash into modernopia.

What to do, what to do? I really am beginning to think all the SHTF scenarios are, in the even remotely near term, pretty unrealistic. It's a tough conundrum, as I do embrace Peak theory, but it's beginning to look like a very looonnnggg emergency, with no real misery apogee in sight. Along the way, humans will adapt as best they can to change, which is what they have historically done. The die-off, such as it is named, may be more of a case of "management by attrition." I.e., people just don't reproduce as much, at least in developed nations, and the teaming masses in the third world cesspools, left to their own devices, will do that thing they do (see Haiti and Rwanda).

All this makes for a highly dynamic investment environment, to say the least. If the reports of the latest bubble being caused mostly by program traders are true, look out. What goes up, must come down, and with a big bang. But we may have a bit more room at the top before that happens. If oil crests 80 and stays there for long, I don't see how the world can deny the peak is past us, and that will cause some collapses, it would seem. But, if OPEC can draw us out in a plateau, keep the illusion alive that there's still room to revolve the spigot clockwise, things may hang together a bit longer. But when it lets loose, it's going to be a hard, sharp fall.