[bonjaski]

some facts:

1) the next 60years there is enough energy in form of electrons or even hydrogen from coal, nuclear, sun, wind, biomass ...


2) there are enough (1,4trillion) hydrocarbons to sustain at least 70-80mbd for a long time


3) high oil, gas price doesn't lead to high inflation, since it has a minor impact on industry
(if you don't believe it, just question yourself if the triplicated oil price raised the price of your car, computer, food?, for me it didn't ... )


and now my killer argument:
one doomer argument in this forum is, that we can't shift fast enough to fossil carbon free technologies or rather that the impact of the shift would be too low.

Well this isn't true.

If just the 10-20% of car drivers, which drive most miles, would change to plugin hybrids, regenerative biofuels (biogas, cellulosic EtOH) or hydrogen rom sun or wind.
(bus companies, commuters, police, ...) the oil consumption of cars would drop ~ 25-45%.

(because an average of 15000 miles per driver, doesn't mean that everyone drives 15000miles a year, some drive over 25000, some 5-10000, some nothing)

and furthermore, drivers which drive a lot of miles a year, change their car more often then others;

for example:
since 1 year i drive more then 20.000 miles a year, i will buy a new car in 6-7 years ... if available it will be this one
http://www.zapworld.com/ZAPWorld.aspx?id=4560

and as for heating: here in europe, oil is already replaced by sun, geothermal, biomass and electric based solutions so i think this isn't an issue anymore.


so why i visit peakoil.com?
well peakoil.com is a nice source for peakoil related news

[mkwin]

mkwin gets his popcorn........The carm before the storm.

[MC2]

For sure, we can mitigate the problem to some degree, but it remains the key problem for our age. Surely, you see that we've built up a global consumption machine based on easy oil energy? A lot must change, but it's not totally hopeless.

Here are a few bullets from my (admittedly bush-league) thinking about this subject:

- We need a new economic model. To move millions of people daily to mostly meaningless jobs, and then back at night to their suburban homes is insane. We can save transportation costs across the board by PAYING people to stay the fuck home. Does this mean a certain subsistence level of welfare for all? Yeah, guess it does, at that. Cheaper to de-individualize the rewards basis system.

- We need central controls on all aspects of population and immigration law. Zero population growth in developed nations, and negative population growth in the teeming wilderness of the third world.

- We need decentralized production of energy. The national and global energy generation oligarchs have fought every move in this direction, but it's now critical that the energy infrastructure be decentralized and decoupled from the large scale structures to enable energy to be generated on a very local level. Governments must apply the same dollars now being wasted in keeping the old system alive in establishing a new one that enables this transition.

These are just a few. They are coming, whether we help them along or not. The more we can do to move the world in this direction, the sooner it can occur.

[BigTex]

When oil gets tight, we will begin burning through coal, more in developing countries than industrialized countries, which will accelerate environmental problems.

Do you really think the Third World and Chindia are going to be interested in alternative energy sources that cost two or three times what good old coal costs? No, they are going to burn coal like there is no tomorrow, which will perhaps delay the day or reckoning a few years, but it will also make the day of reckoning a lot more hazy because of all the soot floating around in the air.

Endless economic and population growth are incompatible with a world of finite resources. We just haven't been reminded of this fact because we haven't run out of a critical resource yet (with no acceptable substitute), other than maybe common sense.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 's')ome facts:

1) the next 60years there is enough energy in form of electrons

[killJOY]

Oh that's a relief.

I'm going to get a Hummer and run down my garden crops with it. I hate weeding anyway.

When someone asks me why, I'll tell them someone on the internetss told me his "killer" theory.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'W')hen oil gets tight, we will begin burning through coal, more in developing countries than industrialized countries, which will accelerate environmental problems.

Do you really think the Third World and Chindia are going to be interested in alternative energy sources that cost two or three times what good old coal costs? No, they are going to burn coal like there is no tomorrow, which will perhaps delay the day or reckoning a few years, but it will also make the day of reckoning a lot more hazy because of all the soot floating around in the air.

Endless economic and population growth are incompatible with a world of finite resources. We just haven't been reminded of this fact because we haven't run out of a critical resource yet (with no acceptable substitute), other than maybe common sense.

[mkwin]

One more point. Serious climate change - in excess of 450 ppm co2 - could be impossible, as we might not have enough hydrocarbons to burn. The IPCC has not considered energy constraints in their climate models.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'p')eakoil is not a problem (my opinion)

[pip]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', 's')ome facts:


3) high oil, gas price doesn't lead to high inflation, since it has a minor impact on industry
(if you don't believe it, just question yourself if the triplicated oil price raised the price of your car, computer, food?, for me it didn't ... )

[kevincarter]

Nice, then why were there gas lines in the 70's?

Also the US is literally designed to stay alive thanks to cheap energy, US economy goes down and we all will follow, say thanks to globalization. We are all tied in this.

Economy is everything.

So the question is, do you consider to prepare at all for PO? Or do you think no preparation besides buying a hidrogen car in the future is necessary? Just curious.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')) high oil, gas price doesn't lead to high inflation, since it has a minor impact on industry
(if you don't believe it, just question yourself if the triplicated oil price raised the price of your car, computer, food?, for me it didn't ... )

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonjaski', '
')3) high oil, gas price doesn't lead to high inflation, since it has a minor impact on industry
(if you don't believe it, just question yourself if the triplicated oil price raised the price of your car, computer, food?, for me it didn't ... )

[Veritas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'O') RLY?

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')) high oil, gas price doesn't lead to high inflation, since it has a minor impact on industry
(if you don't believe it, just question yourself if the triplicated oil price raised the price of your car, computer, food?, for me it didn't ... )

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his post is so full of nonsense it's almost meaningless. People really need to stop talking about stuff they don't understand as you're confusing people, which could cause them to make bad decisions. Just stick to talking about what you know.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his post is so full of nonsense it's almost meaningless. People really need to stop talking about stuff they don't understand as you're confusing people, which could cause them to make bad decisions. Just stick to talking about what you know.

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ecurities are hedge funds not petrodollars

[clueless]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ouse price growth has been experienced in most developed countries

[catbox]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kevincarter', 'N')ice, then why were there gas lines in the 70's?
So the question is, do you consider to prepare at all for PO? Or do you think no preparation besides buying a hidrogen car in the future is necessary? Just curious.