[sparky]

Hi all , my interest is on energy input in human society
Roughly speaking we went off sustainability around the start of the 18th century This as been good , with great progress in knowledge and comfort the world population has grown from about half a billion to 7.5 billions and rising fast, the standard of living has grown for the top fraction from 90% food budget to 15% food budget, the rest being personal spending and taxes. This was the energy consumtion up- slope

there is a large consensus that oil extraction is peaking about now , the exact date will probably be be argued for ever, gas peak is not too far off either. I was shocked to see the projections for peak coal, instead of centuries, it might only be decades U 235 is not over abundant either, at current usage less than a generation

That's 85% of the energies sources going into decline of a few percent a year for the foreseable future, let's call it the coming century. a few percent decrease every year is a severe economic depression every year , years after years in an relentless manner
the growth in reverse , the energy down-slope

I would suppose the price of food to sharply increase , leading to less personal spending , the services and consumers sectors would be hit leading to a lot of unemployment, less government revenues with more public spending. This would be for the first years, the recessions would continue

The worst off , as countries or social classes would soon enought face the Lassale minimum, working to get enought food to stay alive to work another day, The recessions would continue, eventually, things would find a new balance, let said at the billion population mark , with 90% of the population living on the land and a couple of cities of around one million inhabitants

The surviving groups would be the most backwards , they had less to adapt and probably the more ruthless too, Could you shoot holes in this scenario , I REALLY could do with some cheering now

[mark]

We’re not the same people we were 200 years ago, the difference is knowledge. Some of what we’ve gained will disappear with the decline of energy, that’s normal, but not all. There will remain pockets of surviving civilization, most likely where wealth remains. Imagine a pyramid with the poorest on the bottom and richest on top. Depletion impacts the lowest level first, which is already occurring in Africa, progressing up the pyramid toward the richest.

The problem is that there are too many people, so many are going to go. Think of it as a thinning of the herd, a necessary but painful transition. Since no one wants to imagine themselves on the bottom, it’s going to be a struggle to move up.

So, I’ll agree with most of your conclusions except, I expect some groups to be/remain fairly advanced. It is from them that the next civilization will spring.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')

Hi all , my interest is on energy input in human society

Roughly speaking we went off sustainability around the start of the 18th century
This as been good , with great progress in knowledge and comfort
the world population has grown from about half a billion to 7.5 billions and rising fast ,
the standard of living has grown for the top fraction from 90% food budget to 15% food budget ,
the rest being personal spending and taxes
This was the energy consumtion up- slope

there is a large consensus that oil extraction is peaking about now , the exact date will probably be be argued for ever ,
gas peak is not too far off either
I was shocked to see the projections for peak coal , instead of centuries , it might only be decades
U 235 is not over abundant either , at current usage less than a generation

That's 85% of the energies sources going into decline of a few percent a year for the foreseable future ,
let's call it the coming century

a few percent decrease every year is a severe economic depression every year , years after years in an relentless manner
the growth in reverse , the energy down-slope

I would suppose the price of food to sharply increase , leading to less personal spending , the services and consumers sectors would be hit leading to a lot of unemployment , less government revenues with more public spending
This would be for the first years ,
the recessions would continue ,

The worst off , as countries or social classes would soon enought face the Lassale minimum , working to get enought food to stay alive to work another day ,
The recessions would continue ,
eventually , things would find a new balance , let said at the billion population mark , with 90% of the population living on the land and a couple of cities of around one million inhabitants

The surviving groups would be the most backwards , they had less to adapt and probably the more ruthless too,

Could you shoot holes in this scenario , I REALLY could do with some cheering now

.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', 't')he world population has grown from about half a billion to 7.5 billions and rising fast

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', 't')he world population has grown from about half a billion to 7.5 billions and rising fast

[Heineken]

Bill, is Cairo the place where they have "fecal snow"? Or was that Mexico City? Hellholes.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'O')ne final point is while most people lives will get a lot worse, if you make the right investment decisions before peak is truly realized by the public and financial markets, you could increase your relative wealth many times over. For example, buy gold and silver coins and certificates, oil&gas majors and service stocks, uranium mining stocks, nuclear companies, renewable companies, agricultural land, inflation linked government bonds and many more possibilities – if you can get your pension money out of the pension company do it right now and self invest it.

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou describe jitney's--small, private, non-licensed car trucks van etc that ply routes like mass transit.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'B')ill, is Cairo the place where they have "fecal snow"? Or was that Mexico City? Hellholes.

[MrBill]

pstarr wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nd of convenience. End of Recreational Shopping. End of economy.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'O')ne final point is while most people lives will get a lot worse, if you make the right investment decisions before peak is truly realized by the public and financial markets, you could increase your relative wealth many times over. For example, buy gold and silver coins and certificates, oil&gas majors and service stocks, uranium mining stocks, nuclear companies, renewable companies, agricultural land, inflation linked government bonds and many more possibilities – if you can get your pension money out of the pension company do it right now and self invest it.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')
What makes you think they won't? We have had economic depressions before those who prepared - or in the case of the great depression instigated it - survived and flourished. There are tens of trillions of assets held in different forms around the world. The super-rich around the world have $30 trillion of assets, this capital will be diverted to 'safe' assets even though a large portion of it may be lost. The historic store of wealth is gold and silver - it's conceivable the value of gold post peak will increase by 500% or more. At the same time the cost of housing will reduce dramatically. Stocks with long-term profit growth potential will also do very well hence the oil & gas, O&G services companies, nuclear companies, maybe LNG infrastructure producers, renewable companies etc. If you think the financial system will collapse over night then you don’t understand the extent and strength of the system – I believe there will be wide spread failure and a lot of wealth lost but not a collapse.

[AirlinePilot]

I think the great unknown here is how far down do we go and for how long? What is it that emerges from what we all think is coming? Most of the recessions and economic contractions in the past did not involve the long term aspect of declining energy availability. In fact it was the opposite which is true, at least in any modern times.

No one here can answer that and it's this uncertainty that makes things like government and economic mitigation just about impossible to conjecture. I personally think it will be much worse and far reaching than most normal folks (read non PO aware) can fathom. I'm not a die-off proponent...yet.

I doubt most forms of economic engine will remain, and government will likely fail at many levels, but predicting any of this while we enjoy where we are right now is probably just an exercise in futility.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Now, the only reason that gold & silver would soar in value is if the government started to print money with abandon - again inflationary. But then the value of 'many assets' such as basic housing would also rise in tandem with precious metals as the currency is debased. Would it not?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')...oil & gas will outperform gold & silver post peak oil because energy is necessary, like housing, while gold & silver are merely a means of exchange or payment.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Now, the only reason that gold & silver would soar in value is if the government started to print money with abandon - again inflationary. But then the value of 'many assets' such as basic housing would also rise in tandem with precious metals as the currency is debased. Would it not?

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '[')But you still want to own the roof over your head free and clear. And if you own some rental properties, you can harvest rents. Your tenants may not be able to afford much, but it is probably safer than 'financial assets' in a meltdown.

[MrBill]

I do not disagree with you, but we have to be careful with the words we use to avoid any confusion.

Generally, we refer to machines used for production of other goods as capital goods. And a plant as a manufacturing facility. So by saying capital plant I understand that you mean like you said, "easily maintained machines, such as wine or spirits production, food processing", etc.

But building skills, etc. are labor and know-how. Not capital.

I am sorry if that sounds really pedantic, but we have so many verbal fisticuffs on peak oil dot com, and many of them come down to languaging. I just want to keep it consistant. Thanks.

[sparky]

Historically the assets rising in values when the worst hit the fan is good secluded rural land and bullion buried in the back garden, plenty of young male offsprings are very useful too, they will fight faithfully for you for no pay urban real estate can drop dramatically in value, in line with the numbers of this most fragile of creature the urban human
Mega-cities will become death traps if the power fail , I'm trying to get the Amsterdam houses price series recording fluctuations since the 16th century