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Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

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Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Roccland » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 22:20:41

link

Not a doubt in my mind.
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 23:19:46

Who knows..... but sales on Ebay are off a cliff.

I'm glad I've found this place to stay with people I know, can get around great on a bicycle, and even if finances go all to hell it will not get me evicted - if anything, a person with a work ethic will be a real asset around there. What I can bring in for $$ may end up enabling my benefactors to keep their place.

Things are sure FEELING like they're falling steeply.
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Jack » Thu 05 Jul 2007, 23:44:01

That's the problem, Roccland - a lot of people haven't a doubt.

I was reading Barron's today, and the short interest has gone up a great deal. It is unusual for the market to make that many people happy.

Also, keep in mind, that one of the great fears of the U.S. is another great depression. Our government will do well-nigh anything to avoid a replication of the 1929 soup lines.

So - what does that mean? Monetization of the debt, bailouts of every description, and thus inflation. Lots of inflation.

Coming soon to a grocery store near you. 8)
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 00:51:04

But if it's only at the grocery store, it's not in the official records, right?

Gotta love "Core Inflation".

(sorry, couldn't resist pulling out that one)
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Baldwin » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 01:18:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'B')ut if it's only at the grocery store, it's not in the official records, right?

Gotta love "Core Inflation".

(sorry, couldn't resist pulling out that one)


If inflation only materializes as $300 bread and $700 gas, then it doesn't count. 8)
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 02:49:52

Right in time as energy supplies come short of demand. My gut is telling me things are gonna get ugly very SOON. Who knows what the terrorists are capable of during the economic meltdown?
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby perdition79 » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 05:05:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', 'R')ight in time as energy supplies come short of demand. My gut is telling me things are gonna get ugly very SOON. Who knows what the terrorists are capable of during the economic meltdown?


"The terrorists" will lose interest in us rather quickly. Without economic control, we'll no longer be the Great Satan.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o - what does that mean? Monetization of the debt, bailouts of every description, and thus inflation. Lots of inflation.

Coming soon to a grocery store near you.


I'm headed out for a loaf of bread and a dozen eggs. Can you loan me two hundred large, buddy?
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Lore » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 10:59:48

The job numbers for the US came out today showing an increase of 132,000 added to the payrolls and an increase in wages month to month. With these numbers, don't look to the Fed to be cutting interest rates anytime soon.

As long as inflation stays in check and unemployment remains low along with rising pay the economy will keep expanding and people will continue to pay at the pump and else ware.

Trouble will begin when these numbers start heading South, no sooner, and no later.
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 11:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ferrelgiraffe', 'S')ell now while you still can and go west to your final location of choice, soon you will remain where you are and you won't be able to move any longer.


As doomful as that sounds, you're probably right!
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 12:35:42

500 MPH into a brick wall - me
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 13:58:57

That's quite a read Rocc.

I'm just one person, but one person with almost $100k in debt and NO assets. As you all know, my small biz is cratering. Ebay is dying, the head-end just doesn't know it yet - the sellers, who are situated more in the ass, do know.

Bear Stearns and all that stuff, what's it have to do with me? Well, probably the way this stuff is all linked up, essentially I've been carrying part of all that big important debt on my shoulders. And happy to, I really thought if I worked harder I could pay it down, get over the hump, etc.

I was frankly hoping to get ahead enough to get rid of the car and get something cheap which would save like $500 a month, then do caricaturing on the side (or some hobby) and see if I could make $500 a month doing that, hey presto that's an extra grand a month, dedicate that to paying down IRS or whatever.

Instead, the squeeze has come so fast, I'm like Wile E. Coyote when he runs off of a cliff, just now realizing there's nuttin' but air and hard mesa underneath me.

I don't have the money to pay down my debt. I don't have the money to KEEP UP with my debt. Chances are I never will, even though hot-shot caricaturists are supposed to make good dough, it takes a few years to get there.

Good paying jobs are rare here, and they tend to go to people who have been on that career track since they were about 8. I've finally realized this. Yeah, I've done high-tech, but frankly the people who are like fish in water in it, were geeks already at age 8! I didn't get the tech bug until I was about 18. At age 8, I was the artist. That, and unskilled labor, are what I've been given for skills. I'm lucky to have a skill most ppl don't have.

But the point is, I will probably not make huge money again, and the debt will go Pfft. And so will the US economy because you can multiply my case by millions.
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Roccland » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 14:33:51

Oh yes plants - default will be table talk...

Check out the dance of the dollar ....look out below!!!!

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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby bobaloo » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 20:14:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he job numbers for the US came out today showing an increase of 132,000 added to the payrolls and an increase in wages month to month. With these numbers, don't look to the Fed to be cutting interest rates anytime soon.


You do realize that about 159,000 of that 132,000 jobs are based on guesswork added into the numbers and have nothing to do with reality don't you? They do a lot of mumbo jumbo to the numbers before they're released. Actual surveys showed a LOSS of about 27,000 jobs.

It's also a lot of fun to look at the data from several months ago, they "adjust" them again after about 3 months and normally greatly reduce the number of jobs created, but that never gets the headlines the first release does.

BTW, we need about 300,000 new jobs per month to keep up with young people entering the labor force.
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 21:12:41

This was posted in the Energy Geopolitics forum. More of the same:

The Market Oracle

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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Lore » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 22:08:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobaloo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he job numbers for the US came out today showing an increase of 132,000 added to the payrolls and an increase in wages month to month. With these numbers, don't look to the Fed to be cutting interest rates anytime soon.


You do realize that about 159,000 of that 132,000 jobs are based on guesswork added into the numbers and have nothing to do with reality don't you? They do a lot of mumbo jumbo to the numbers before they're released. Actual surveys showed a LOSS of about 27,000 jobs.

It's also a lot of fun to look at the data from several months ago, they "adjust" them again after about 3 months and normally greatly reduce the number of jobs created, but that never gets the headlines the first release does.

BTW, we need about 300,000 new jobs per month to keep up with young people entering the labor force.


What survey are you referring to?

Revisions added 75,000 to job growth previously reported for April and May.

In any case no matter how you cook the numbers the fact is the economy is still expanding, people are still working, and wages are not stagnating. Fully, 70% of the US economy depends on consumer spending and so far the consumer is not giving up to beg, borrow, or steal every last cent they can to squander.

I expect the 4th quarter to catch up with the reality of headline inflation as will be proved out by corporate earnings slowing. It will be only then that business will begin to put the squeeze on employment and wages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ome economists project the unemployment rate will inch higher in coming months as companies try to hold down costs, casting doubt on the outlook for consumer spending.

A report last week from the Conference Board showed consumer confidence fell last month to the lowest level since August as concern grew that the labor market will weaken.

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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sat 07 Jul 2007, 14:33:10

post deleted because it was a thread hijack.

Started a new thread on Ebay as an economic indicator here...

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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 00:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '
')
In any case no matter how you cook the numbers the fact is the economy is still expanding, people are still working, and wages are not stagnating. Fully, 70% of the US economy depends on consumer spending and so far the consumer is not giving up to beg, borrow, or steal every last cent they can to squander.


Love it! Oops I mean I'm lovin' it!

On the radio on MMMMMMMmmmoneytalk, that Brinker guy talked about the new job growth, for some reason restaurants and bars are doing GREAT. "What's going on in the restaurants and bars of America?" he asks. So far I have not heard of Chili's offering a blowjob with every meal, at least not yet.. ...

A theory of mine is, if you're tapped out and don't have cash for the supermarket, are some people saying Fuck It, and going to a restaurant, even Denny's, and credit-card'ing it? Are people under stress going to bars more?

Could things be falling that rapidly?
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby lateStarter » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 17:18:48

Think "last meal".
We have been brought into the present condition in which we are unable neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them. - Livy
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Re: Complete Global Economic Meltdown 4th Qtr 07

Unread postby Baldwin » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 17:46:54

Yet we still get stories like this: Millionaires in the making

A couple at about 35 years old with 4 kids making 70k a year will be millionaires and 30 years in the future, will be able to fly out to California to see their grown up kids. I don't know whether to be a Jack and laugh at their cornucopian delusions or be a Jesus/Gandalf and pity them.
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