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The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 07 Jul 2007, 14:47:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'A')n odd thought is this. Suppose there had been no oil and we had to use the so called clean alternatives from the start. Would we have gone to the moon? Would we have filled the earth with windmills until we reached a different type of peak, peak aluminum perhaps and then in the subsequent upheaval as growth stagnated and the earths systems shut down from the sheer mass of humanity...


Hard to go to the moon without metal fabrication, meaning coal. We'd have peaked in coal at some point.

You might ponder whether if our oil driven society collapses what we'll do in the future with all the metal lying around. Can't imagine building LOX powered rockets built by solar and wind, but who knows?

The recent post that pointed out that we've had alcohol that burns for thousands of years but never thought to build an engine powered by it, is telling I think. Mulling over what the future holds is fascinating. My hope would be that we lose this corrupt obsession with growth and expansion somehow.
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Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 14:54:55

Ibon wrote: " To prevent this from being framed as an idealogical struggle we need further hard core feedback from our environment and reality. Let reality first cause the unemployment in the form of economic recession brought on by peak oil followed by a few more katrina type events."

Perhaps, but I think you are misunderstanding human nature. There is no, absolutely no, guarantee that humans will interpret even catastrophic events correctly unless they have already gotten an big earful of how to interpret it ahead of time. In fact, generally the last interpretation of events that people are likely to come up with is the one that has any relation to the truth.

So it may be true that another (set of?) catastrophes is necessary before people will be willing to accept the truth, but only if this truth has already been ringing in their ears for quite some time.

Yes, it is a huge risk to state these truths, but nothing like the (collective) risk of pretending that all is basically well.

On that point, has any one noticed that recently the ratio of posts to views on many of these threads has recently passed 100?! How many of you posters are viewing the threads 100 times before posting? If you're not, that means that there is a huge and growing commuity of "lurkers" here. If any of these have power to further spread the word(s), perhaps posting here isn't the totally masturbatory, fruitless activity it sometimes feels like. (Not to cast any aspersions on onanism, mind you--jerk on, all you self-lovers! It sure beats--yuk, yuk--propogating more global warmers and oil user-upers!)
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Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 08 Jul 2007, 19:57:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'P')erhaps, but I think you are misunderstanding human nature. There is no, absolutely no, guarantee that humans will interpret even catastrophic events correctly unless they have already gotten an big earful of how to interpret it ahead of time. In fact, generally the last interpretation of events that people are likely to come up with is the one that has any relation to the truth.


Isolated events wont cut it. A series of events tied in together with the consequences of depletion could. Look at global warming. Some of the most active hurricane seasons, Katrina, drought in parts of the world, reports of glaciers melting, coastal flooding combined with Al Gores documentary plus the growing frustration over the failed Kyoto protocols did indeed succeed in taking the issue from a polarized one to mainstream recognition.

Society can get the right interpretation with enough momentum. Going from interpretation to actual change however will require ratching up the consequences up to a degree of severity above and beyond what we saw with Katrina and it has to come in series.

Is that a little clearer? I have no illusions that breaking the status quo can be done with idealogy alone. THe consequences have to be up in your face and immediate before we break through the denial.
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Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 18:12:25

Quite clear, thank you.

Clearly we need both. Without Gore and the many others researching and drawing attention to GW, all the extreme weather events in the world would only be interpreted as that: wierd weather. Even _with_ Gore et al. the denialist have done a mighty good job of offering people false reasons, doubts and ideas.

I was in Paris the summer of '03 when tens of thousands of people in this advanced, first world country died in what was quite clearly a GW driven heat wave--unprecedented Sahara-like temperatures (110-120 degrees F) in Northern Europe for days and nights on end. Yet when I returned to the states, I found that almost no one knew anything about it.

If major GW catastrophes, even in developed countries, aren't even reported, much less interpreted, no number of such catastrophes will sway US opinion. (And forget about catastrophes in the third world, the area predicted to bear the major brunt of the negative impacts of GW.)

So yes, we will need lots of bad stuff happening right in our back yard, along with lots of voices pointing out their relationship to larger trends and countering the constant falsehoods spread by the forces of deceit.
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Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 09 Jul 2007, 20:29:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')o yes, we will need lots of bad stuff happening right in our back yard, along with lots of voices pointing out their relationship to larger trends and countering the constant falsehoods spread by the forces of deceit.


Remember the Tsunami of Dec 2004? A natural event that killed over 150,000 in Asia. The world wide out pouring of donations was unprecedented. The global media attention stunning.

It doesn't only have to happen in our backyard but it has to carry the punch the tsunami did. In series.

I think that between GW and peak oil the convergence of events that could awaken us collectively out of denial is likely in the short term of between 2-5 years.

Wierd to have to say it but we need more destabilizing events. THe sooner the better since that will be the sooner real mitigation starts to happen.

Wishing for calamity for the greater good is a rather strange position we find ourselves in.
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Re: The Oil Companies' New Party Line on PO

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 17:54:51

We may indeed need more and more severe events to wake us up, but it would be nice, and may be vital, for us all to became much more aware of and sensitive to the many less-than-absolutely-catastrophic events going on here and around the world that together should be freaking us all out.

But almost everyone is busy being distracted by relatively minor (or absolutely trivial and silly) events and news...pick your favorite trivial headline.

Any chance we will all start to pay a whole lot more attention to what is really important and frightening?
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