$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')lbeit reasoning is not very straight forward, I agree with EJ arguments.
Right hand side of curve can be steeper.
That may be due to technology progress, which already had shifted the peak.
PeakOil is You
Right side of the oil curve will not look like the left?
Re: Right side of the oil curve will not look like the left?
by TheOtherSide » Fri 06 Jul 2007, 18:02:13
Then that's not Hubbert's Peak now, is it.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ecause technology progress could secure some production growth even after 50% of recoverable total had been produced from operating fields, then it is logical that remaining part will last not as long because less than half is available and therefore sharp drop is to be expected. EROEI problems will exacerbate that situation further.
Right, but at the same time technology and high oil prices will make it feasible to access fields which were uneconomic before. For example, if tomorrow we started developing Canadian shale oil because we have the technology, the extra production would make the downward slope less steep.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat is observed in large but aging oil fields, with Britain and Mexico's particular fields experiencing annual drop of 12% or so.
Where to start...
Indeed, UK production had fallen sharply, but you have to look that it had also risen sharply. If from '93-'94 it had jumped from 90 to 120 million tonns, I only expected it to fall just as quickly. The curve can be as steep as it wants to, but the left side must equal the right.
Mexico - has been in deline for less than a year. It's absurd to base the the remainder of the world oil curve for the next 50-100 years on what's happened to only one country in half a year.
What about the other countries? Surely more have peaked. You can't just ignore the US, Venezuela, Norway, Indonesia. I'm sure more have peaked since 2004. It's necessary to see which one's the rule and which one - the exception.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y wild guess is that between ca 2012 and 2020 we will experience something like 8% annual global production fall at average
.Further down a line fall be gentler (unless economic meltdown will kill industry meantime...).
Since world oil production was growing at 3-5% (someone might probably correct me on this), I expect it to fall also at 3-5%.
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TheOtherSide - Wood
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I'm just looking at examples.
