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Peak Oil & Mass Migration

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 11:24:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', '
')
When the proverbial **** hits the fan here in the US, do you really truly believe that the government will let everyone just leave the cities and flee to the countryside?


Of course not. When the effects of living in a post peak world truely sink in, and the entire urban/suburban population tries to flee their situation, the government will of course employ any and all means to stop them.

No one is sure WHEN all this will happen of course, but as the predicted failure of the electrical grid happens this summer, I'm sure we'll see it soon.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', '
')
Don't you think the gov't will have a little more advanced warning than us and will institute some sort of Martial Law in order to "keep order" when the time comes?


Since peak happened some 2 years ago now, of COURSE they have had advanced warning. But they are hiding their true intentions until the grid fails during the summer heat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', '
')
Timing will be everything I think... I just believe that if we wait too long to leave the cities it will be too late.

Thoughts?


stay in the cities with plenty of supplies, wait until the zombies leave or die off, and then stride forth to claim whats left of the world for ourselves?
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby green_achers » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 12:08:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')Authorities will essentially ignore rural areas, because of the low population.

I hope, but kinda doubt this. I think the govt will see the rural areas as handy sources of food and places to put camps for the dispossessed.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby buddylee » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 12:28:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')fter Katrina, people were prevented from leaving New Orleans. I expect if there is violent unrest, urban areas will be cordoned off to protect wealthier suburban areas. Authorities will essentially ignore rural areas, because of the low population.


If the events after Katrina are a preview of what is to come, then God help us...

Also I wouldn't be surprised if foreign "UN" troops are the ones used to "keep the peace".
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby Merlin » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 13:01:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', 'A')lso I wouldn't be surprised if foreign "UN" troops are the ones used to "keep the peace".


It things are so bad that TSHTF in the U.S., do you really believe that foreign UN troops will have nothing better to do than to police the U.S.? People on this forum have long speculated that local police will be ineffective keeping the peace because they'll all be at home protecting their own families. Why should foreign troops be different?
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby buddylee » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 13:33:27

From what I understand, foreign troops have been stationed in the US for years.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 27 Jun 2007, 14:10:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', ' ')When the proverbial **** hits the fan here in the US, do you really truly believe that the government will let everyone just leave the cities and flee to the countryside?

Don't you think the gov't will have a little more advanced warning than us and will institute some sort of Martial Law in order to "keep order" when the time comes?


This assumes a date in time when it everything just falls apart. Short of major war, a pandemic, or a sudden market crash with oil at hundreds of dollars a barrel, I don't see such a date in time.

As the price of energy rises, the standard of living will decline, unemployment will rise, businesses will fail, and people will lose their homes. I foresee a slow painful process of cope and adaptation for many years, until we hit a tipping point as mentioned above.

Remember, we will pull out all the stops to keep the status quo going at the expense of future generations, privacy, the environment, and in direct opposition to the laws of nature.

Iraq and the biofools craze are just the forerunners.

However...since we don't know what the decline rate will be, those tipping points in time are anybody's guess.

It's the 2nd biggest gamble in the history of the world.

Global climate change is the first for being Pollyanna about the 2nd.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby gb1980 » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 09:39:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', 'F')rom what I understand, foreign troops have been stationed in the US for years.


You understand WRONG. There are no stationing of troops on our soil at this time. Foreign troops are trained for periods of time and then go home to their country--just like we do. We do have foreign troops stationed on posts/bases/forts as liaison's to our units and organizations. Example: Foreign Special Operations troops are stationed at Ft Bragg North Carolina for 2-3 year tours and then go home. But, these are generally one person, maybe 2 two people at the most per country. So, yes they are here but only in an administrative role and very few in numbers.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby gb1980 » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 09:55:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('buddylee', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')fter Katrina, people were prevented from leaving New Orleans. I expect if there is violent unrest, urban areas will be cordoned off to protect wealthier suburban areas. Authorities will essentially ignore rural areas, because of the low population.


If the events after Katrina are a preview of what is to come, then God help us...

Also I wouldn't be surprised if foreign "UN" troops are the ones used to "keep the peace".


There aren't enough foreign troops nor US Troops (Active duty, Reserves, National Guard) to control the population of the U.S.'s 300 million people. My educated guess would say that the metro area of Atlanta, Georgia would require at least 10 divisions of troops for partial control and the added logistical infrastructure for 24 hr operations. Now add NYC, Chicago, San Fransisco, LA, Miami and you soon see that they run out of troops to even do a partial job of moderate control.
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Re: WTSHTF in the US...

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 10:12:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'O')f course not. When the effects of living in a post peak world truely sink in, and the entire urban/suburban population tries to flee their situation, the government will of course employ any and all means to stop them.

If the *entire* sub-/urban population tries to flee, there will be no stopping of them. They will certainly not be escaping by car, which meens policing just the highway exits is a non-starter. Plus, I cannot fathom the police and army staying loyal when their own family is starving. If things really get that bad, they will desert to come back home and the government falls.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o one is sure WHEN all this will happen of course, but as the predicted failure of the electrical grid happens this summer, I'm sure we'll see it soon.

Which has nothing to do with peak oil. Even if it does happen this summer, it will be up in a couple of days. In the worst case, they will ration the power - 9-5 commercial, 5-9 residential.

Plus, electricity isn't a problem of peak oil, because oil isn't used to generate power. And it will be a while before power stations deteriote so far that they have to be shut down.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 10:56:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')lus, electricity isn't a problem of peak oil, because oil isn't used to generate power.


All energy is tied together. The question is, "how much".

For example - as natural gas prices soar over the next 10 years, there will be a shift into diesel/heating fuel and coal to generate electricity and heat.

In the end, coal, nuclear, oil - these are fungible to some extent, so as one rises in cost, so must the others.

Some commercial establishments, I'm pretty sure, can burn ng or heating fuel depending on which is a better deal.

That is a good point. However, I think everyone expects Peak Oil to come before Peak NG and Peak Coal. The depression caused by PO will destroy demand not only for oil, but also for NG and coal. And it will happen before they peak. Constant supply + little demand = cheap prices. However, relatively, electricity/heating will be expensive for the majority of people because they are unemployed.

While before the major crash, yes, we'll see an increase in price on everything. However, I don't think it will take 10 years to break America's back.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby sirrom » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 11:28:42

england will be well protected from mass imigration because it is very hard for people to cross the english channel without any oil.

i suppose they can always come through the channel tunnel,but that is easy to guard,plus theres also the added danger of being hit by a train.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 11:42:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')The depression caused by PO will destroy demand not only for oil, but also for NG and coal. And it will happen before they peak.


I see this assumption written here often. If the price to access food, air and water went up, how much less would you use?

Not much, you say, you would cut other things as those are essentials.

Same goes for energy.

The depression caused by peak oil will cause people to cut out other things from their budget, in order to continue to afford oil, NG, and coal.

Just like they are doing now.

Some, in the third world, will be priced out of the oil game.

But, you say, these cuts in other things will reduce the demand for energy.

Enough to offset the increase in demand to meet population growth and allow for economic growth?

The house of cards will come down.

Don't stand near the economic exits, as you can expect a stampede.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 12:39:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') see this assumption written here often. If the price to access food, air and water went up, how much less would you use?

Not much, you say, you would cut other things as those are essentials.

Same goes for energy.

The depression caused by peak oil will cause people to cut out other things from their budget, in order to continue to afford oil, NG, and coal.

Just like they are doing now.

Some, in the third world, will be priced out of the oil game.

But, you say, these cuts in other things will reduce the demand for energy.

Enough to offset the increase in demand to meet population growth and allow for economic growth?

The house of cards will come down.

Don't stand near the economic exits, as you can expect a stampede.

Allright, I think I should explain my scenario completely now, because there is some confusion. I expect PO to have to separate, and quite distinct stages. Be forewarned though, I am not an economist. :P

Stage 1. We've already entered this stage. Oil prices increase due to a supply plateu. Since everything is linked to oil, other prices and inflation steadily rise. As you say, there is no demand destruction (I'm talking about the first world). Slow economic growth is still possible due to the increases in efficiency and other energy sources. Bankrupcies increase, but not to dangerous levels. This stage will probably continue through the first year of actual production loss. At that time, all previous trends will accelerate exponentially.

The Crash. At some point, enough businesses will fail that you will get a domino effect. Someone on this forum made a good example of oil trucks supplying tanks and the tanks themselves. Just because the tanks cost more doesn't mean that if your supply trucks get destroyed you will come out ahead. In a similar way, if company A folds, and it's been supplying companies B, C and D, you will lose more than just company A. The problem is made 10 times worse by just-in-time supply systems. It will be October 29, 1929 on an even bigger scale. In the US economy, 99% of small and medium businesses are wiped out in a week. The world economy follows after it.

This brings us to Stage 2. 90% of the population is unemployed, so there is no demand on anything besides food, water and a box to live in. This is the point when energy will be cheap again. NG and coal, like I said in the previous post, but even oil will be inexpensive because nobody has to drive to work or afford to drive to recreational facilities. This is the time for any corporation still standing to make big profits on cheap energy and even cheaper labour. This is the time for responsible governments to take command of the economy and ensure that starving zombie hordes don't destroy the country.

Sorry for derailing this thread. :P
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 12:55:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')This brings us to Stage 2. 90% of the population is unemployed, so there is no demand on anything besides food, water and a box to live in. This is the point when energy will be cheap again.


There will always be a high demand for energy. Energy is a necessity like food and water and air... and not subject to the "usual" demand destruction as many seem to think.

Energy will never be cheap again, even in a depression.

And if it is, no one will be able to afford it.

Same as the last depression.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 13:19:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')This brings us to Stage 2. 90% of the population is unemployed, so there is no demand on anything besides food, water and a box to live in. This is the point when energy will be cheap again.


There will always be a high demand for energy. Energy is a necessity like food and water and air... and not subject to the "usual" demand destruction as many seem to think.

Energy will never be cheap again, even in a depression.

And if it is, no one will be able to afford it.

Same as the last depression.

When you've just been fired from your job, when the repo man comes to balance your debts, when any savings you've had were wiped out by inflation, how much money would you spend on running your appliances?

How much gas will you need to drive to work? Hint: you're unemployed.

How much gas will you need to drive to a movie/restaraunt/whatever Americans do for entertainment? Hint: you have no money to spend.

How much money will you spend on gas to heat your home that's 20 km from the nearest grocery store/ food distribution point/ possible employment? Hint: unless it's the dead of winter, you're better off abandoning it.

66% of oil used in the US is for transportation. When businesses start going out due to the domino effect I've outlined above, the demand destruction in a year will be greater than any production loss, be it 4% or 8% or 12%.

And yes, you're right, most will not be able to afford oil, NG, coal and electricity because they're f***ing unemployed. Anyone who is re-employed won't suddenly go back to their lavish pre-peak lifestiles.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 17:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')When you've just been fired from your job, when the repo man comes to balance your debts, when any savings you've had were wiped out by inflation, how much money would you spend on running your appliances?


So much for demand destruction being any saviour, then, right?

Once the dominoes start to fall...

Or...

Once we hit the wall, the gas tank will still have gas, but the motor won't run.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 20:37:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', ' ')This brings us to Stage 2. 90% of the population is unemployed, so there is no demand on anything besides food, water and a box to live in. This is the point when energy will be cheap again.


There will always be a high demand for energy. Energy is a necessity like food and water and air... and not subject to the "usual" demand destruction as many seem to think.



I dont' get it. The OtherSide presents a scenario where no one NEEDS any of the products that energy goes into, effectively a depression. So why would there be a high demand for energy? No one buys cars, no one puts gas in them, no one is employed, we're all selling apples on the street corner, etc etc, typical Gorge scenario. Labelling it a depression might lead one to believe we'll come out of, the Prophet Duncan forsee's a straight slide into caveman hood.

I think OtherSide doesn't take his idea far enough forward into time. A depression is just the WINDUP to the real fun.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 21:10:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'I') dont' get it. The OtherSide presents a scenario where no one NEEDS any of the products that energy goes into, effectively a depression. So why would there be a high demand for energy?


He describes chaos & collapse, not diminished energy use.
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby TheOtherSide » Tue 10 Jul 2007, 23:06:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')o much for demand destruction being any saviour, then, right?

Ha ha ha, where did I say that it was? :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', 'I') dont' get it. The OtherSide presents a scenario where no one NEEDS any of the products that energy goes into, effectively a depression. So why would there be a high demand for energy? No one buys cars, no one puts gas in them, no one is employed, we're all selling apples on the street corner, etc etc, typical Gorge scenario.

Ah, at least someone understands what I'm saying!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')abelling it a depression might lead one to believe we'll come out of, the Prophet Duncan forsee's a straight slide into caveman hood.

I think OtherSide doesn't take his idea far enough forward into time. A depression is just the WINDUP to the real fun.

And this is where I'll have to disagree. Cheap energy + cheap labour (everyone is desperate to get employed) = opportunity to start rebuilding. Any sane government should/would do it. We can start constructing rail lines between farmland and cities, building nuclear plants, coal-to-oil plants to salvage part of the car fleet, demolishing suburbia to regain farmland closer to the city, building high-density housing. In several years supply will again plunge past the recovering demand, but this time we'll be ready. We will never reclaim the GDP per capity that we enjoy now, at least not in my lifetime. But industrial civlization can keep on rolling and, in the end, I think that's what matters.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')e describes chaos & collapse, not diminished energy use.

I don't know how to make this clearer. I describe a depression, which will cause diminished energy use.

I will grant you one thing though - every living organism has to consume some energy, or otherwise it would be dead.

However, there is a difference in the energy used between driving an hour to work and walking 10 minutes from a tent camp to your employment.
There is a difference in energy used to prepare a Supersized Meal and tossing a piece of raw meat in the fire.
If that's not diminished energy use right there, I have no idea what it is then.

What are you doubting? That PO won't cause a depression? That a depression doesn't cause unemployment? That an unemployed person wouldn't spend as much energy as an employed one? That a bankrupt business won't use as much (or at all) energy as an operating one?
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Re: Peak Oil & Mass Migration

Unread postby PraiseDoom » Wed 11 Jul 2007, 00:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheOtherSide', '
')
However, there is a difference in the energy used between driving an hour to work and walking 10 minutes from a tent camp to your employment.
There is a difference in energy used to prepare a Supersized Meal and tossing a piece of raw meat in the fire.
If that's not diminished energy use right there, I have no idea what it is then.



Consider yourself lucky if you get a tent! The Prophet Duncan forecasts the return of the caveman....I don't think they had tents. Maybe some animal hide they hung on sticks?
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