[SoothSayer]

I expect that we will see mass migration due to water shortgages.

However do you think that Peak Oil will cause - or block - mass migrations?

Will poor 3rd world peasants STILL want to migrate into energy deficient UK, France, Germany etc?

Or will gas rich Norway & Holland suddenly see a lot of new arrivals ... perhaps from neighbouring countries?

Any ideas anyone?

[Jack]

You might wish to read "Camp of the Saints".

Any oasis of affluence is going to get innundated. There will be a growing tsunami of starving, desperate invaders who will seek to penetrate everywhere. And, too, there will be the fifth column inside who will aid them.

Peak Oil won't block the mass migrations - indeed not. But it may weaken central governments such that they will have a more difficult time controlling their borders.

Oh, and by the way - the illegal immigrants will steal anything they can get their hands on while traveling. Furthermore, they will victimize those they encounter.

[SoothSayer]

And, too, there will be the fifth column inside who will aid them.

That happens in the UK.

The first arrivals learn all about the rules & regulations.

They then get family & friends in.

The beach-head then expands as the arrivals get jobs in the Civil Service - especially in the Passport Office or similar roles.

I think that all this has a proper name ... something like "migration pull" i.e. the later arrivals are "pulled" in by the first ones who "pushed" themselves in.

One the "pull" stage has been reached, the game has been lost ...

[quizz]

Well, to put it in historical perspective, it might be similar to the barbarian invasion of Rome. My favorite site is The Coming Dark Age (or the daily blog: Dark Age Watch)

To put a definition on it, there is discohesion (economic), disintegration (social) undermining 'civilization'. It helped me mentally grasp the radical changes going on.

[pea-jay]

Ultimately the decision to move is based on three very important considerations:

- Can I continue to live ___________ and still meet all requirements?

- Do I have opportunities in ___________ to suceed and live better than my old place?

- Can I make the move? Like affording it or even simpy attempting it.

How that plays out is dependent on world events and government leadership. Peak oil in itself is not going to trigger a lot of moves. Government and economic factors play an important role as well.

[seven]

A person who is drowning will often grab a rescuer in panic, dragging down the rescuer and possibly drowning them both - which is why lifeguards are trained to wrap an arm around the neck from behind to haul a drowning victim ashore...such a position makes it hard for the panicked person to inadvertantly hinder their own rescue or endanger the lifeguard and therefore themselves. A bunch of panicked people in water will swamp a boat and sink it because they all try to get aboard at once, and pack too many on the boat, overloading it.

So, yes, it seems likely that human nature will cause panicked mass migrations to any area perceived to offer a better chance - and it won't matter whether the area really IS better, or how many people it can support; humans operate on perception, not fact. Sheer numbers will ensure that any area with resources will be overrun until the resources are gone, then the horde will migrate to the next 'boat'.

Not a pretty picture.

[pea-jay]

yes, but as time goes on, shortfalls get larger, traveling options become limited for many people. Remote, self-sustaining areas may well escape much strife for just this reason.

A systematic crash will preclude much in the way of vehicular transport, while most folks today dont own horses. So while escape may enter many minds, most will remain trapped.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'y')es, but as time goes on, shortfalls get larger, traveling options become limited for many people. Remote, self-sustaining areas may well escape much strife for just this reason.

A systematic crash will preclude much in the way of vehicular transport, while most folks today dont own horses. So while escape may enter many minds, most will remain trapped.

[kam30en]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose who travel by walking on their own two feet, shod with inexpensive sandals made of old tires, will not be restricted. And a lot of illegal immingrants travel in that manner.

Much as I would like to think that Peak Oil would slow the flow, I cannot convince myself that would be the case.

[pea-jay]

Walking hundreds of miles across the desert will stop alot of people. It already does on the US MEX border.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')han, when they walk into caucasiaville

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'A') systematic crash will preclude much in the way of vehicular transport, while most folks today dont own horses. So while escape may enter many minds, most will remain trapped.

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'A') systematic crash will preclude much in the way of vehicular transport, while most folks today dont own horses. So while escape may enter many minds, most will remain trapped.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', '
')Why a church?

[MonteQuest]

The Snow birds will remain south for the winter.

As the cost of heating/cooling rises, we will see a migration to more temperate climates. Areas where you can get by without heat or A/C year round.

Buffalo, NY and Phoenix, AZ will see fewer inhabitants, for example.

Areas with hydro-electric will get newcomers.

The coastlines will be flooded...no pun intended.

[pea-jay]

Areas with hot, dry summers will remain more tolerable due to the ability of people to utilze evaporative cooling strategies, whether it is a swamp cooler or simply spraying water on themselves and drying off. Cant do that in Mississippi or Florida in August.

This is not to advocate the survivability of Phoenix, but the heat of the intermountain west, most of CA and parts of the plains could be made more tolerable this way.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')s the cost of heating/cooling rises, we will see a migration to more temperate climates. Areas where you can get by without heat or A/C year round.

[WildRose]

I see Canada as having many advantages over a lot of areas in the world post-peak. However, most homes/businesses are heated with natural gas from September to June (generally speaking). With natural gas depletion, perhaps we'll be migrating south! Either that, or trying to get by (at least at home) with the best quality sleeping bags.

[POblues]

For me, the greater fear (and more imminent concern) than PO is our governments preparations for it. The Patriot Act, ever increasing debt, taxes, the upcoming film "America: Freedom to Fascism" makes my point. PO may (or may not) be the tipping point, but regardless I don't see sunny times ahead.

I am currently worried more that the power-elite will clamp down before I am able to bug-out. Migration, might be difficult with martial law, capital controls, government surveillance. It is getting so I don't feel a can do ANYTHING without Big Brother knowing. Even posting here is being recorded and appended to my file I suppose.

[buddylee]

{topic merged}

Hi
I've been a reader of the forums for a year or so, but I don't think I have seen this possibility addressed (correct me if I'm wrong).

When the proverbial **** hits the fan here in the US, do you really truly believe that the government will let everyone just leave the cities and flee to the countryside?

Don't you think the gov't will have a little more advanced warning than us and will institute some sort of Martial Law in order to "keep order" when the time comes? I'm sure they will have plenty of food and gasoline (and ammo haha) to keep the National Guard (or UN troops or whoever it is) fed and operating.

Timing will be everything I think... I just believe that if we wait too long to leave the cities it will be too late.

Thoughts?

[Ludi]

After Katrina, people were prevented from leaving New Orleans. I expect if there is violent unrest, urban areas will be cordoned off to protect wealthier suburban areas. Authorities will essentially ignore rural areas, because of the low population.