[shortonoil]

PraiseDoom said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o if cheap is gone, and peak is gone, NOW what?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]PraiseDoom said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o if cheap is gone, and peak is gone, NOW what?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o, are you saying, PraiseDoom, that the fact that the American way of life is dependent on cheap oil is "not a peak oil problem"?



So what would actually be a "peak oil problem" in your opinion?

[Ludi]

Anyway, to answer your question, PraiseDoom: "what now?"


"Stuff gets more expensive."


That's a problem to some people, if not to you.

[Aaron]

The downstream impact of changes in energy price take a long time to trickle down through the economy.

2+ years is a typical average estimate.

Oil is also largely distributed in long-term contracts with fixed price points, further extending the time line.

And while it seems as if we passed light crude peak some time ago, it is not yet clear when an average peak in all conventional sources of oil occurs.

Price volatility is frequently referenced as a primary consequence of peak production. We have certainly seen that these past 2 years.

But even with the price of oil today, it is an extremely cheap commodity all things considered.

A watershed moment for peak oil will be difficult to pinpoint of course, given the macro nature of depletion & the long time line.

We will begin to see more & more of the economic impact of higher energy costs as time passes. Right now however, we are at, or very near, our planet's peak conventional oil production capacity. We extracted, produced & consumed more oil last year than ever before in human history, & we are enjoying the benefits of this resource wealth. When that trend reverses itself & production begins it's inevitable decline, then it's zombie-time...

Peak Oil means Peak Wealth for mankind.

We are at the peak of our wealth right now... never been richer.

Even the USGS agrees oil will peak & decline... just 25 years later than we do.

Production capacity means higher prices because of demand.

Shrinking production means war.

Popcorn?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')
YOU are the one continually claiming no-one notices the high prices of oil.

So, what to you, is a peak oil problem? Are you saying there is no such thing as a peak oil problem because YOU don't notice one?

Stop being such a god-damn ass-troll.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')nyway, to answer your question, PraiseDoom: "what now?"


"Stuff gets more expensive."


That's a problem to some people, if not to you.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')he downstream impact of changes in energy price take a long time to trickle down through the economy.

2+ years is a typical average estimate.

[Eli]

Well it is only a matter of time before this all comes apart.

I think we are way ahead of schedule unfortunately on the PO time line.

This article on bloomberg also talks about the risk for another oil spike because non OPEC has peaked.

Peak of Non OPEC


Also tomorrow some big players are going to announce they are pulling out of Venezuela CONOCO Phillips and Exon being the likely players. Hugo goes production is going to further slide when a bunch of big oil guys leave.

[AirlinePilot]

There are too many folks who when first exposed to the giant problem of PO tend to think in far to short time spans. As I have learned more over the last two years, it is rapidly becoming evident that after production declines things at best become very uncertain. There is no predicting a time line. It will not take place swiftly unless some form of natural or socio-political catalyst helps it along. We are in for maybe a year or two more of the status quo, and then things will slowly degrade over the longer haul until we are likley in some sort of worldwide depression. It will be sparked by moments of hope and by moments of utter despair. I doubt that we in modern first world societies can really come to grips with what is coming. I really think thats one of the ultimate issues which will govern how humanity moves forward in the face of dwindling energy supplies.

Will we embrace the idea of a more sustainable future? Or will we battle each other for the last precious drops of liquid gold? I am beginning to think that it's getting to late for enlightenment. Fear and panic will rule and we will submit ourselves to some new form of dark age over the next 50-100 years.

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')Will we embrace the idea of a more sustainable future? Or will we battle each other for the last precious drops of liquid gold? I am beginning to think that it's getting to late for enlightenment. Fear and panic will rule and we will submit ourselves to some new form of dark age over the next 50-100 years.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'A')lso tomorrow some big players are going to announce they are pulling out of Venezuela CONOCO Phillips and Exon being the likely players. Hugo goes production is going to further slide when a bunch of big oil guys leave.

[alpha480v]

People don't want to hear bad news. They tune it out. They still want to be able to tow their boats to the lake 1 weekend of the year with their extended cab pick-up. It's the Arabs fault, or big oils fault after all.

They still want to overpay for the house in the suburbs and drive that same pickup 100 miles round-trip to work every day. It is their god given right to have cheap gasoline. "Why can't the government do something about these prices?" they say.

Peak oil is here and nobody cares. All that matters is how much money it costs to maintain our status quo. And attempts at maintaining that status quo will happen when things get bad enough. That's when the resource wars will happen.

It is going to be a messy next couple of years IMHO.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alpha480v', '
')
Peak oil is here and nobody cares.

[Pops]

Ya know, on the one hand I didn’t believe all the number as reserves were growing and huge new discoveries were announced - and I don’t really believe them now that they are agreeing with what is preached around here.

As the S&L thing back when, Enron, crappy lending practices now, not to mention OPECs silly restatements and even the US govt’s own accounting system show us; numbers on paper are just that, numbers meant to justify on thing or another.

The most telling thing ever to come out of BP is much less complicated:


Beyond Petroleum....

[Eli]

AP I think what you are saying is exactly right.

What I hate is that I have only been here for two years but I have seen lots of bad news come down the pipe in that time.

We are managing right now to get by but the refineries are going out left and right do to the high sulfur oil and we are one step from very ugly bad.

A refinery fire in Mexico and there is a big jump in wti and gasoline.

After all that I have seen go on here I know all we need to do is wait a month and something major will happen.

The way it is going right now my money is on wide spread gasoline shortages at the end of July. And then the Stock Markets globally are going to crash as the US consumer gets his nuts cut off and the lending industry comes apart.

[AirlinePilot]

While I think your right for the most part Eli, I think there wil be gargantuan efforts to keep the lid on and we can probably do it for a while yet. Each time something crops its head up which is related to PO, the excuses will fly. TPTB will be successfult for a short while. I still think we have some time left and Im hoping thats the case. At least a few years before we really start down the economic and social decline.

[snowhope]

posted twice.

[snowhope]

AP you talk a lot of sense on here and I listen to your comments, but to "hope" that we still have a few years left before TSHTF good and proper seems to be somewhat hipercritical. I would measure it in the next 6 months my friend. :O

[Eli]

I have to agree with Snow you are far too much of an optimist for me AP

Three years? Bah

It may drag out that long, but I am not sure the economics of the world will hold out that long.

We have already seen big projects being put on hold because as time has gone by the cost were too high to produce the oil. (And yes I use the term produce). If we are able to keep the lid on things as you say for a few more years that trend will continue to happen.

But I think the economic bottom will/could drop out just as easy. What then will happen is big oil and others will drop more big projects because they will be too expensive.

We are at that point now, no matter what we do we are like a snake eating its tail.

Instead of doomsday clock, we need a frog in a pot of oil, my guess is the temp has just now slipped from being comfortable to unhealthy, but the frog has no idea what is happening.

The final stage will be boiling pot of oil with a frog bouncing on top bobbing around like big swollen balloon.