[KevO]

says the headline. so we've past peak oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's major oil companies replaced reserves at levels below 100 percent for the third straight year in 2006, even as costs to find and produce the key asset continued to rise, a new analysis shows.

Reserve replacements last year, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, were 91 percent, below the 92 percent replaced in 2005, according to a report released last week by the investment bank Bear Stearns & Co.

At the same time, the companies' finding and development costs rose to $13.63 per barrel of oil equivalent, the report said, a 28 percent rise from 2005.

Analysts typically say an oil company's reserves replacement should average more than 100 percent over a three- to five-year period to indicate growth.

"The major oils continue to record reserves in large blocks, but with less frequency," the report said. "The timings of these bookings causes swings in reserve-replacement performance."

Jeff Tillery, an analyst with Pickering Energy Partners in Houston, said falling reserves could have some effect on rising gasoline prices, particularly as world demand grows.

But, he noted, companies such as Irving-based Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell and other majors produce a small portion of the world's oil and natural gas compared with government-controlled national oil companies.

The Bear Stearns report also noted that oil and natural gas production by the majors rose 4 percent last year from a year earlier. That number was lifted in part by acquisitions such as ConocoPhillips' $35.6 billion purchase of Burlington Resources, and Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s $3.8 billion takeover of Vintage Petroleum.

The report said finding and development costs continue to be influenced by the need to extract oil from more technically challenging areas, such as deeper waters and rugged terrain.

"Inflationary pressures stemming from a tight market for deep-water rigs, labor and materials also took a toll," Bear Stearns said.

Looking ahead, the investment bank said it expects reserve bookings to "remain lumpy" in 2007, and for replacements among the major oil companies to remain mixed. Over a period of five to 10 years, Bear Stearns said replacement-booking levels are likely to be in the 100 to 110 percent range.

"In other words, we have confidence that the exploration efforts being undertaken now will pay off in the near future," the report said.

Of some of the world's major integrated oil companies, Bear Stearns noted:

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 's')ays the headline. so we've past peak oil.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')The problem as I see it is, no one seems to have noticed.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')The problem as I see it is, no one seems to have noticed.

[Windmills]

What am I not understanding in that report? It seems like something isn't being said. I thought we passed the point of being able to replace what we use about 25 years ago. Since then, it's only gotten worse. A quick glance at the Oil Poster seems to show we're using about 3 or 4 times as much as we find.

Doom, in a way, you make a point that coincides with what I am beginning to believe. I am beginning to doubt that there will be a TSHTF moment, but rather that the world will experience a long, slow decline with incremental increases in misery and declines in living standards over many years.

[Valdemar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')The problem as I see it is, no one seems to have noticed.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')The problem as I see it is, no one seems to have noticed.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Sounds pretty meek. Peak Oil happened and the devastation caused was so terrific that....some African bushmen spent their cash on new axes?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Valdemar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayame', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')The problem as I see it is, no one seems to have noticed.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Windmills', '
')Doom, in a way, you make a point that coincides with what I am beginning to believe. I am beginning to doubt that there will be a TSHTF moment, but rather that the world will experience a long, slow decline with incremental increases in misery and declines in living standards over many years.

[Twilight]

The reserve replacement ratios of the international majors is one thing, but worldwide consumption has exceeded discovery every year since 1981. That's the more important date. I don't trust the international majors to be keeping a clean set of books any more than I trust OPEC, by the way.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Peak Oil happened and the devastation caused was so terrific that....some African bushmen spent their cash on new axes?

[Ludi]

So, are you saying, PraiseDoom, that the fact that the American way of life is dependent on cheap oil is "not a peak oil problem"?



So what would actually be a "peak oil problem" in your opinion?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o, are you saying, PraiseDoom, that the fact that the American way of life is dependent on cheap oil is "not a peak oil problem"?



So what would actually be a "peak oil problem" in your opinion?

[sameu]

sit back and relax

[Roccland]

[quote="PraiseDoom"]

So if cheap is gone, and peak is gone, NOW what?[/quote]


We watched gold shoot to the moon as global economies collapse. Then I pay off my house with hyperinflated dollars.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', ' ')Peak Oil happened and the devastation caused was so terrific that....some African bushmen spent their cash on new axes?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '.')..If the decline is long and slow and tortorous, we won't get near the opportunity to use the neighbors we don't like as target practice as society collapses in one, high speed spasm.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')
What high prices? 1st) they aren't particularly high when compared to what I paid to fill up the Plymouth Fury during the 70's, and 2nd) who cares about the cost of gasoline if you don't use much?

Nothing to do with rich, just good choices. People who make bad ones get hammered every time, and not just by high gasoline prices.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '.')..If the decline is long and slow and tortorous, we won't get near the opportunity to use the neighbors we don't like as target practice as society collapses in one, high speed spasm.