[ryaninnyc]

Is the following estimate true? If so, how much does it effect previous peak oil estimates?

"Chevron Corp. and its partners say they have tapped into an area that may contain as much as 15 billion barrels of oil in the ultradeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico -- the kind of massive reservoir of crude that the industry dubs an elephant discovery."

How long does a supply of 15 billion barrels last?


Also, what about the new discovery of oil on the east coast of india?

[Tanada]

Here is the way to think of it. The world consumes about 85 Million Barrels per day. 85,000,000*365=31,025,000,000 bbl/year. If your Chevron statement is unvarnished truth it will extend world consumption about 6 months, and it won't enter the marketplace for 7-12 years after the first production well is drilled.

[morph]

well simply, 15billion barrels at 85million barrels a day is enough for 176 days world wide consumption. Now obviously in reality it doesn't happen like that but it demonstrates how much oil we are using.

The problem with the ultradeep oil is that, it is ultra deep so technically hard and economically aswell as energy expensive. They also say 15Billion barrels but that may not be how much is extractable. Also it will take many many years for production to even start and by then it is probable that the peak has already passed. So in terms of affecting peak probably not that much.

[Twilight]

Also, net energy is important. Ultradeep doesn't give the same return as a field a few hundred feet below some scrubland. Not all barrels/day are born equal, 85mb/d in 2010 (if achievable) won't be the same as 85mb/d in 2005, because net energy will have declined. It's kind of like a dollar not being worth the same. Different mechanism, but you get the idea.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hevron Corp. and its partners say they have tapped into an area that may contain as much as 15 billion barrels of oil

[frankthetank]

Also, when talking about water, water that is very warm, water that harbors things that go by the name of Katrina and Thunderhorse, ahhh....you get my drift.

Hurricanes

[Dan1195]

While this sounds great on the face, as we know in the end it wont do a whole lot for these reasons, many of these have already be mentioned:

1. The depth underwater and under the surface mean that major technological hurtles still have to be crossed to access the oil.

2. By the time the oil starts being pumped even under a best case scenario, we are already on the downhill side of the slope based on most logical analysis of the actual peak date. Looking at what Megaprojects will come online, pushing the peak much beyond 2008-9 is simply not realistic.

3. GOM and Hurricanes. Enough said.

[pup55]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic23435.ht ... overy+gulf


Hello Ryan, welcome to PO.com.

I think the above thread talks a lot about this discovery.

[Daculling]

Prudhoe was said to contain 30.9 billion barrels in 77. I don't know what the estimate is today, but look here...



That's what 30.9 billion gets you when it's not under 7000 feet of water. Good luck with that deep water stuff.