[retiredguy]

Hey bob,

You aren't much of an anthropologist if you believe that civilizations can't collapse suddenly. The Cahokians numbered in the tens of thousands and dispapeared within a few years following crop failures. Classic overpopulation scenario.

What about the Mayans? How about the Aztecs and the Incas? The Aztecs' and Incan collapse was precipated by the Spainards, but it happened quickly nonetheless.

[thuja]

Yes Retired Guy- but humans te the globe, and are located in every bioregion there is. Yes human civilization will collapse...in some places- it already is. I'd say Iraq, Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Somalia are cases in point. But we are talking about a lot of different groups of folks based in very different regions with different carrying capacities.

[128shot]

I'm slowly waiting to.

I have a running bet with my parents. If oil hits 80 dollars a barrel by the end of 2008, they'll buy windmills to generate their own power here at home, and if I can get them to do that, I certainly hope I can talk them into growing their own food out here-we have the land to sustain a family of 6 or 7, and there is only 4 of us.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', ' ')There is no reason to think that price will suddenly shoot to $200/bbl or beyond and stay there.

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')What seems to be happening so far is that oil prices are ratcheting upwards several dollars a year, which is putting a slow squeeze on demand and a push towards alternatives.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
We know it is already mainstream, but when will it really hit home for everyone? How will the world respond?


Read my Year in Review Blog. June 2004 cover of National G and the fall issue of Yes! MAgazine is pretty mainstream, but not on the 6 o'clock news.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')It is a mistake to underestimate the survival drive. Its got billions of years of evolution behind it. We're not going to burn it all down - some people might try, but they'll be killed/imprisoned, the vehicle for this force will be the central governments -which will be at the height of their size during the peak. I dont see them playing a role further down the road - but for 2010 time period your worried about they'll be the ticket, for some good old fashioned rationing, employing mass violence, and providing a central rallying point.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('What_Went_Wrong', 'A')nyway, I'd be very surprised if we are all still here talking about this in 2010. very surprised.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'T')o me it seems that the oil prices are increasing at the fastest pace in history. Even if you discard inflation and look at the increase percentagewise, prices are increasing at the same pace as in the seventies.

Back then we called it an oil shock, why should we treat it any different now.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')his notion of oil being merely a fraction of the energy we spend...do you live next to a supermarket? Or a vineyard? Imagine US gas prices going through the roof. Who's going to be able to afford to drive to get food anymore? Will the trucks still deliver to the stores that supply the food in the first place? Will the growers still be able to supply food? How are employees going to get to the store to work, either?

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')eah, but it's not $200 yet.

The proof is in the effect, if the rise is too fast it will lead to a crash. We haven't crashed yet. So far, the rise is being weathered.

......

Kunstler has studied this a lot more than I. Why is Kunstler wrong?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', ' ')Far from being brittle, there is a huge amount of redundany in the system.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I')'m actually pretty surprised that oil has tripled in price with only debatable effects at the margins. If oil is so vital, how can that be?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', ' ')Oil supply is not going to go off a cliff, so the scenario you describe is fantasy.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', ' ')At the end of a parabolic rise prices go nearly vertical. So you see tremendous price increases in a short period, (before common sense kicks in and prices drop). I think we are not at that point yet so we could still rise a lot (150, 200, 250 who knows).

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', ' ')Oil supply is not going to go off a cliff, so the scenario you describe is fantasy.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesertBear2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', ' ')Oil supply is not going to go off a cliff, so the scenario you describe is fantasy.

[pigleg]

Waiting, quietly waiting...

You know, lately I'm feeling like it's really starting to be ON now, as in we'll actually see demand pass supply in the next year or so.

[RdSnt]

That threshold was reached some time ago.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pigleg', 'W')aiting, quietly waiting...

You know, lately I'm feeling like it's really starting to be ON now, as in we'll actually see demand pass supply in the next year or so.

[Tanada]

On the one hand I am tired of waiting but don't know how much longer we will have to wait. It seems like from the last few years of production records effectively 90 percent of gains came from the USA 'Fracking Miracle' and those days are rapidly winding down by about half.

The question plaguing my mind is, now what? The instant doom expectations I had in 2005-2008 didn't exactly unfold as I expected. On the other hand the way things have unfolded from 2008-2015 have not been all roses and lollypops either.

On the gripping hand, how prepared is our government and the other governments of the planet to deal with peak when it finally starts cutting into world supply? The EIA is still casting fantasies about ever more oil being found somewhere each year for the foreseeable future. The IEA is about the same.