[Gazzatrone]

No this isn't a definitive explaination as to the when's where's or how's. But a funny thing happened the other day whilst in the pub celebrating a friends birthday.

One of my friends (an accountant, but let's not be stereotypical here or cast aspersions) was asking me about Peak Oil as he'd seen it (this site that is) linked on my Facebook page. He had a look but was overwhelmed by the amount if data. He got the gist of it very quickly and was refreshing to see someone so open and willing to grasp the concept, until I have to admit I confused the issue with EROEI.

When asking me about that, all I could come up with was to take a pint glass and without tilting it, asked him to imagine it full and then by the only means necessary of emptying it was to use a spoon.

It took him about 3 seconds to figure that it is impossible, when I said this is how (with regards to the concept EROEI) an oil field works he got it.

I did however mention that there are differing grades of oil which cloud the issue somewhat but the point was made with a simple excercise.

As a point I will use this in future as it graphically explains our situation very clearly. Get your camera ready when people realise the problem when they still have half a glass full but can't get it out. as the advert says

"Moment of realisation of Man's plight - Priceless!"

At this point it is worth mentioning that the lower you get the crapper the oil.

And as a question, how does everyone else explain Peak Oil to those either enquiring or completely oblivious.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', ' ')And as a question, how does everyone else explain Peak Oil to those either enquiring or completely oblivious.

[jeezlouise]

I've always really liked the "oil is to industrial civilization as water is to the human body" analogy to explain the huge difference between "running out", which is what most people think will happen, someday, and running short, which is what people need to focus on.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Savinar', 't')he ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

[Aaron]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic28623.html+repeating

[Geko45]

I show them this. (click image for larger version).



The darker colors show the historical data for each set. Historical discovery comes from the well known ExxonMobil data that we have all seen. Historical production and demand figures come from BP's statistical review. The projections for discovery and production are produced using the Hubbert linearization method on the historical data. Finally, the projection for demand is based on the EIA's official estimate of 1.9% demand growth per year.

It doesn't take people long to realize that demand can not exceed supply so either the red plot or the green plot is incorrect. Then they notice that there is little chance that production can increase when discovery has been falling for forty years. It doesn't leave much wiggle room for cornucopain fantasies of technological solutions. A lot has been learned over the last forty years and it hasn't made much difference in the overall trend.

[Twilight]

I show them this and ask them whether they would suspect fraud if they caught a book-keeper with a sheet like it.

Interestingly, the suggestion that oil companies might be massaging the numbers doesn't meet with a whole lot of opposition. If the graph is not close to hand, you can as easily ask rhetorically how much oil is available, and whether they might have lied. No cornucopia buys your way out of existing preconceptions, which coincidentally happen to be accurate.

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[MonteQuest]

Keep it up folks. This could become a slide show thread on Peak oil.

[NugBlazer]

I just have them go to Matt Savinar's site.

[smiley]

Basically I tell them something like this:

Oil is a finite resource and production therefore must inevetably fall. When it does it does not grind to a halt, but it slowly declines as the output of ageing wells falls.

The point at which global production starts decreasing is called Peak Oil.

There is nothing controversial about this theory. There is not a single theory, institution or company which does not predict a peak and subsequent decline of global production.

It is the timing which is under dispute. When this peak will occur depends on the amount of oil that is in the ground, that is recoverable and when it will be recovered.

And estimates of this amount widely vary because of various reasons:
- Governments and companies not being transparent (or honest)about their reserves
- A degree of uncertainty about the technological advances in recovery in the future.
- Inherent uncertainty in geology
- Uncertainty about the future global economic climate...
- Uncertainty about ME stability
- .......

Basically predicting the peak is a guessing game and depends more on one's level of optimism or pessimism than anything else.

But whether you join the camp of the optimists or the pessimists think of the following: even the most stubborn optimists predict a peak and decline in our lifetime. That should worry you.

[Pops]

World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, and has declined since then. If the 40 year cycle seen in the US holds true for world oil production, that puts global peak oil production, right about now; after which oil becomes less available, and more expensive.
Like MQ intimated: if ya can’t find it; ya can’t pump it and we anin't been finding much lately- regardless of price, shortage, embargo, war or "homeland security".

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ike MQ intimated: if ya can’t find it; ya can’t pump it and we anin't been finding much lately- regardless of price, shortage, embargo, war or "homeland security".

[Artaxt]

The peak oil concept is relatively new to me. My wife had internalized the concept about 30 years ago, but did she tell me about it...no I'm trying not to go off the deep end and turn in to a raving lunatic with a need to tell everybody that the sky is falling. My best method to date for keeping that impulse in check is to direct people I think might benefit to Matt Savinar's site, give them a copy of his book, or Kunstler's book The Long Emergency. Then I leave it to them.

Scott

P.S. Nice bit of disucssion here, and I'm happy to join in.

[dohboi]

I point out the following sequence of prices for a bbl of oil and ask them to chart the next few points:

2000--$10
2002--$20
2004--$40
2006--$80 (ok, I fudge by a factor of a few cents here.)
2008--?
2010--?
2012--?
.
.
.
Sure, there are huge compexities and special circumstances behind some of these numbers (the 2000 price was unusually low for a variety of historical reasons mostly well know to posters here.) But, hey; we're talking about simplifications that get the big picture across powerfully, aren't we?

[aldente]

I don't even bother to try to explain PO anymore since there is this psychological side effect leading to the conclusion that there is an expiration date attached to this civilisation which comes over as a downer. There are only a few who get turned on by PO, I would guess one in a hundred. For the rest, they simply don't want to hear the message, no matter how accurate you make your point.

[MattSavinar]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Arc ... 12007.html

@ The Haters: If you don't like the part where he mentions LATOC then just mentally delete that sentence out and do your darndest to focus on the rest of his letter. I know that will be tough for some of you . . .

[essex]

As a teacher I have been doing this for the past 3 years. We have a responsibility to do this and to educate our colleagues as well. It is not easy telling a rather dull 16 year old girl who plans to spend / borrow a lot of money to do a tourism course hoping to be an air hostess that her chosen industry is ultimately doomed and that she had better have a plan "B"
I have been sending emails like this.

Hi XXX.
One hour documentary on peak oil.
NZ is in a worse situation.

http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/

http://www.peakoil.com/sample/index.html

Plenty of other links I can send but I don't want to depress you ! Still you and your family need to know so that you make wise decisions for the future.
Cheers XXX.

[Cobra_Strike]

20 more kids....in a generation of hundreds of thousands. It nice that they where capable of understanding, but a shame that they are so few.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'T')he problem with that argument (and a number of other arguments) is that a lot of people simply don't believe it and can find compelling arguments not to believe it.

[manu]

Tell her it is sort of like eating an ice cream cone. You start slowly and finish fast.

[dohboi]

Greetings, essex.

Glad to hear there is another educator on the forum.

I required a class to read Kunstler, Heinberg and a few other books and articles. They mostly took it fairly seriously, but it was depressing how many times I had to explain (even to science majors) that hydrogen was not a source of energy, only (at best) a very inefficient means to transport it.

They hear idiotic irrelevances like: "Hydrogen is the most plentiful element in the universe" and they think the problem is solved. The fact that most of this universal hydrogen is in gas clouds and stars hundreds to millions of light years away does not come to their mind.

They were most impressed by a simple article in USA Today (sometime in the fall of '05) that pointed out how little oil the US has compard to certain other countries and compared to its use.

I regularly assign a well written article by Peter Maass in the NYT Magazine back in September 2005. I can't remember if it was discussed on this forum.