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A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Kylon » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 01:37:35

This isn't my solution (I have another one), but couldn't America just use giant solar towers?

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/01/technol ... 0802.biz2/

I mean, if they were mass produced, and if a plastic layer were used instead of a glass one, and if on the bottom instead of just having ground, a black hot tar like substance was spread (it allow for near 100% absorbtion of light), then it might become cheap enough to compete with oil.

It wouldn't replace fossil fuels, but it could supplement the power production to a point that local production of fossil fuels could be sufficient, and delay the problems of Peak Oil long enough that a long term solution involving ADS thorium reactors could be implemented within the United States.

Cars could eventually go to electric using ultra capacitors, and our energy needs could be met.

I think this could really take care of at least a large portion of America's energy needs. I think this would be a great power source for America due to the large amounts of unusable land in Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, North Dakota, Washington, and many other areas where there are large deserts. Each one of these deserts could be cheaply converted into a large supplier of renewable energy.

Don't you think this could abate Peak Oil in the U.S if it was done right?

P.S I know you might say the plastic comes from oil, but that could also be derived from ethanol converted into a plastic. Plus we have enough oil reserves that if we focused them into creating large plastic sheets for solar generators, our reserves would last us a while.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Kyn » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 10:22:48

I'D say the amount of energy and the money you'd need to build them would be better invested in saving energy.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Ebyss » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 10:29:33

There are plenty of solutions to the problem of PeakOil. Ethanol, Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Conservation, Population Reduction, Voluntary Powerdown and so on. The real crux of the issue is whether world leaders and the western population can be convinced to implement any of them in a timely, responsible and sustainable manner - and I'm sorry to say the chances of that are slimmer than abiotic oil coming to the rescue.

Again - the real problem facing us isn't Peak Oil, it's overpopulation. There is no palatable solution to overpopulation - no matter how many wonderful energy sources you find, you're not solving the real problem the planet faces.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Kyn » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 11:17:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'T')here are plenty of solutions to the problem of PeakOil. Ethanol, Solar, Wind, Nuclear, Conservation, Population Reduction, Voluntary Powerdown and so on. The real crux of the issue is whether world leaders and the western population can be convinced to implement any of them in a timely, responsible and sustainable manner


We will reduce our consumption as production decreases. That's not the question. The question is, how this will look like.

As we see it today, the first world will be those who'll reduce consumption fast and strong, as they did in the first (and second) oil crisis, while the developing nations will slightly increase consumption for a few years and than cut back, too.

Currently, the OECD countries are reducing their consumption while the poorer countries are increasing it.

At the same time, food prices increase, which will mean that the poorer countries will increase their food production because we don't ruin their markets as we did in the past.

Their will be fewer undernourished persons in the world, as 90% of the undernourished world wide are peasants, workers in the food sector and fishermen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')gain - the real problem facing us isn't Peak Oil, it's overpopulation.


The global increase of the population number by 35-40% by 2050 won't increase energy use significantly. As there's enough food for far more people than the 9-10 billion that will live in 2050, that's not the problem, too.

The main problem, in future, is global inequality. As PO means rising prices for raw materials, PO will mean more wealth for the poorer nations and, at least at the beginning, a slower increasing wealth for the richer nations.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 11:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'W')e will reduce our consumption as production decreases. That's not the question. The question is, how this will look like.

Worse than you think.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'C')urrently, the OECD countries are reducing their consumption while the poorer countries are increasing it.

My ass.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'A')t the same time, food prices increase, which will mean that the poorer countries will increase their food production because we don't ruin their markets as we did in the past.

Our practices won't change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'T')he global increase of the population number by 35-40% by 2050 won't increase energy use significantly.

Consumption may not. Demand will.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'A')s there's enough food for far more people than the 9-10 billion that will live in 2050, that's not the problem, too.

It is, because they won't have access.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kyn', 'T')he main problem, in future, is global inequality. As PO means rising prices for raw materials, PO will mean more wealth for the poorer nations and, at least at the beginning, a slower increasing wealth for the richer nations.

Inequality? Please.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Aaron » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 12:27:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')urrently, the OECD countries are reducing their consumption while the poorer countries are increasing it.


If, by "reducing", you mean "greatly increasing", then yes... I suppose you're right.

78.9% of all statistics are just made up... but there is only a 10% chance of that. And that my friend, is a total of 88.9%.

Pretty impressive.

The point is that my lack of meaningful information, combined with my blatant nonsequiturs, makes my point pointedly.

Point.

In closing I'd like to say "The Gorillas are in the Casino pool"

So I will:

The Gorillas are in the Casino pool

TaDa!

Be sure to catch my 10 0' Clock show!
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby jboogy » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 13:31:59

scalability,- 85,000,000 MILLION per DAY! that my friend is a SHITLOAD of black goo. SCAL A BIL IT Y is the (pardon the pun) 800 pound gorilla in the ointment
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Baldwin » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 13:58:21

While "solar towers" or other solutions that are borderline sci-fi might be the salvation of our more superfluous uses of electricity like cars, television, lights etc, we still need fertilizer from natural gas to feed people.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 14:55:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'w')e still need fertilizer from natural gas to feed people.


When will the peak for natural gas occur? :)
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby davep » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 15:40:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', 'w')e still need fertilizer from natural gas to feed people.


When will the peak for natural gas occur? :)


I'm not a chemist, so excuse me if this is stupid...


I thought that to create ammonium nitrate you used the haber bosch process. This process uses the hydrogen in CH4 and atmospheric nitrogen.

An electrical solution (from, say, solar) could feasibly replace the hydrogen from methane using hydrolysis of water, so natural gas wouldn't be necessary. Therefore fertiliser production doesn't need natural gas, it's just currently the solution of least resistance.

Oh, by the way, those passive solar towers are only about 2% efficient. But for somewhere huge like Australia, that may not be a problem if they're cheap enough.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby davep » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 17:29:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')he natural gas supplies the hydrogen not the nitrogen


Exactly, which is why electrical hydrolysis of water could replace it. Read what I wrote again :razz:
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 16 Jun 2007, 23:28:24

From Wikipedia:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nviroMission has since 2001[18] proposed to build a solar updraft tower power generating station known as Solar Tower Buronga in Buronga, New South Wales.[19] The present status of the project is uncertain.[20]


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') solar updraft power station would require a very large initial capital outlay, which may be compensated by relatively low operating cost.[1] Like other renewable power sources there would be no cost for fuel. A disadvantage of a solar updraft tower is the much lower conversion efficiency than concentrating solar power stations have, thus requiring a larger collector area, and leading to higher cost of construction[21] and maintenance.[12]


Seems like all this wheels-spinning-in-mud will hamper solar updraft projects for good, as Green as they may be.

Also seems like these generating projects by design have to be built way the hell out in the desert, far away from the crops you'll need to fertilize in the first place, thus adding to the energy inputs needed for their use in the first place. Best way for a municipality to make on-the-spot fertilizer would be en maase production of Humanure but good luck getting a city full of squeamish types to crap into a box.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 01:46:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'B')est way for a municipality to make on-the-spot fertilizer would be en maase production of Humanure but good luck getting a city full of squeamish types to crap into a box.


Night Soil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he reuse of feces as fertilizer was common in Japan. Waste products of rich people were sold at higher prices because their diet was better. Various historic documents dating from the 9th century detail the disposal procedures for toilet waste.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 02:27:30

I've mentioned that in California, $1050 a month gets you a place with gangs dealing drugs all night up the way, and iffy electricity and phone.

$500 a month gets you a tiny mobil home, where you get to deal with your wastes in a very hands-on way.

My pee, it turned out, was going onto the lawn on one side of the place, no wonder it grew so well! However, a #2 would not go where it was supposed to, due to a hole in the pipe, and would end up basking in the sun on the lawn. Yes, quite startling to see an "old friend" again the first time! OK..... so I decided I'd do my #1's in the place and for #2, go to the communal shower room and use one of the toilets there. Pretty good, except I had to think carefully and pre-plan, I lost a bit of spontaneity.... so, what I'd do is do my No1 then if I felt something more substantial coming on, I'd spread a bit of newspaper in the flushed and now relatively dry (boat type) toilet, do my thing, and wrap up the proceeds well and chuck into the dumpster that was nearby. Not as bad as you'd think, things dry and smell was not a problem. Essentially this is how it's done in Mexico etc. Which the US is becoming.

It was a very hands-on process....

Let me tell you that in a Hawaii rooming house, I can't remember ever having to take a cold shower, go without use of a phone, or go without electricity except right after a hurricane, it was out one day big deal. That's what $190 a month got me in a much lower-income, darker colored, part of the US.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby turmoil » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 10:49:01

It may not be in the best taste but, the solutions to any problem caused by overpopulation (a shortage) are in the effects of the problems themselves.

For instance, take food shortages. Prices go up because supply can not meet demand. Some foods (or the amount of them) simply can not be purchased, therefore reducing the strain on supply and tapering the price increase. The difference between the supply / demand curve just doesn't get eaten. Solution: people eat less expensive foods or just less of the food in question.

In a market economy the prices causes supply and demand to always be similar, if not equal. The peak oil downward supply curve means prices will go up to reduce demand, therefore solving the problem. How fast and when have always been the questions.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 11:38:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('turmoil', 'I')n a market economy the prices causes supply and demand to always be similar, if not equal. The peak oil downward supply curve means prices will go up to reduce demand, therefore solving the problem. How fast and when have always been the questions.


And as many have said over and over here, and this is key, while price has CLIMBED demand has also climbed. This has occured for at least the last 4 years and we are approaching a fifth. Oil is the definition of the inelastic commodity. The real issue is how high can price go before economic chaos? That and the realization of peak by Joe Sixpack causes the really ugly problems of social unrest, economic dislocation, and likely worldwide depression.

Since oil is like water or air to humans, I highly doubt a dearth of it is going to be solved anytime soon by some form of market movement. We will destroy the rest of the economy while we attempt to hang on to the current paradigm as the price of oil continues its upward spiral.
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Re: A Possible Solution to Peak Oil?

Unread postby turmoil » Sun 17 Jun 2007, 13:49:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A')nd as many have said over and over here, and this is key, while price has CLIMBED demand has also climbed. This has occured for at least the last 4 years and we are approaching a fifth.

Yes, this is true. Total demand has grown (slightly), but the growth rate has slowed quite a bit. The price isn't quite high enough to actually stop global demand growth, though. The supply curve has been level or slightly higher, which has allowed this. There are many places that have had demand crashes allowing slight demand growth in richer countries.
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