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Peakoil with a more realistic timeline

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Peakoil with a more realistic timeline

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 20:26:58

A world without oil
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time By Daniel Howden, Published: 14 June 2007
Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete known reserves. -snip-
http://www.gaeagraphica.com/images/p1-1 ... 49115a.jpg
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Re: A world without oil

Postby lys3rg0 » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 20:47:32

Well I'm glad PO is finally getting some serious coverage, but until this gets over the pond, provided the MSM will let this one slide past them, i don't think we'll see any lifestyle change without economic incentives. They'll start to listen only when they'll start running out. Britain is right on track with that rule, with the rate of depletion North Sea is getting it was a matter of time before someone broke the pact of silence.
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Re: A world without oil

Postby Valdemar » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 20:55:25

Fuckin' A! About time this happened, The Indy has had snippets on the topic in the past, now for a typical big frontpage splash of reality.

Maybe when I get it today along with the rag my parents read (The Daily Express), they'll consider what I've been trying to tell them for months to be somewhat based in real-life and more pressing than yet more coverage of Diana and her conspiracy in The Daily Excess.
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Re: A world without oil

Postby Gazzatrone » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 21:10:48

I'd have to point out that the headline on the cover stating we will run out in four years is bollocks.

Didn't we start running out the second we started using it?

Quote Colin Campebell -
"It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."

I made a similar analogy the other day in the pub, but this notion of Campbell's is to simplistic. I suggested to my friend he imagined emptying a pint glass using a spoon and without tilting the glass.

There comes a point when you can't get anymore out, but left with the sobering thought that there's still a crap load left in the glass. This would also work best as well if you placed sand at the bottom and then a heavy layer of salt.

But nice to see it making headline news, sadly this is news that won't carry much weight as the independent readership isn't greeat, and those that will regard it won't bother to find out as they believe it won't affect them.
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Re: A world without oil

Postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 21:11:30

We can add The Age of Australia to the growing list of MSM sources telling the truth about current energy issues:

Petrol problems about peak oil, not snake oil
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Re: A world without oil

Postby Judgie » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 22:07:33

I'm going to get a hold of exxon mobil's latest report. Apparently they specify the peak to occur in approximately five years.

News Article here:
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=8563
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they finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timeline

Postby lady-t » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 22:11:43

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/ ... 656034.ece

this major article gives us four years til the shtf

{Threads merged by emersonbiggins}
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Re: they finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby Jack » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 23:02:04

From the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ven when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come as soon as 2011, he says.


What is that ticking I hear? Perhaps time running out? 8)
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Re: they finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby lys3rg0 » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 23:07:01

previous thread on the same article: http://peakoil.com/fortopic29915.html
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby kochevnik » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 00:22:49

Front page - Drudgereport - number one article.

Doesn't get any more mainstream than that.

And that's Drudge's second PO article in as many days.

Jigs up boys.
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby catbox » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 00:50:44

Don't mean to repost what the article says, but this was good for me...

Jeremy Leggert, like Dr Campbell, is a geologist-turned conservationist whose book Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis brought "peak oil" theory to a wider audience. He compares industry and government reluctance to face up to the impending end of oil, to climate change denial.

"It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to scientists warning about global warming," he says. "We were predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out. Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people to listen."


Plain and simple...what ya bet people still don't (want to) get it!

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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby joewp » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 02:41:18

I don't know what all this "finally" is about the MSM talking about PO is. You peakle are demonstrating as short an attention span as the sheeple. Back in October of 2005, peak oil was on the cover of USA Today.

Debate brews: Has oil production peaked?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY
Almost since the dawn of the oil age, people have worried about the taps running dry. So far, the worrywarts have been wrong. Oil men from John D. Rockefeller to T. Boone Pickens always manage to find new gushers.

But now, a vocal minority of experts says world oil production is at or near its peak. Existing wells are tiring. New discoveries have disappointed for a decade. And standard assessments of what remains in the biggest reservoirs in the Middle East, they argue, are little more than guesses.

"There isn't a middle argument. It's a finite resource. The only debate should be over when we peak," says Matthew Simmons, a Houston investment banker and author of a new book that questions Saudi Arabia's oil reserves.

Today's gasoline prices are high because Hurricanes Katrina and Rita disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. But emergency supplies from strategic oil reserves in the United States and abroad can largely compensate for that temporary shortfall. If the "peak oil" advocates are correct, however, today's transient shortages and high prices will soon become a permanent way of life. Just as individual oil fields inevitably reach a point at which it gets harder and more expensive to extract the oil before output declines, global oil production is about to crest, they say. Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing new sources of oil has risen about 15% annually, according to the John S. Herold consulting firm.

As global demand rises, American consumers will find themselves in a bidding war with others around the world for scarce oil supplies. That will send prices of gasoline, heating oil and all petroleum-related products soaring.

"The least-bad scenario is a hard landing, global recession worse than the 1930s," says Kenneth Deffeyes, a Princeton University professor emeritus of geosciences. "The worst-case borrows from the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: war, famine, pestilence and death."

He's not kidding: Production of pesticides and fertilizers needed to sustain crop yields rely on large quantities of chemicals derived from petroleum. And Stanford University's Amos Nur says China and the United States could "slide into a military conflict" over oil.

<more at link>


Look at that, all you could want, Simmons, Deffeyes talking about the four horsemen, the food production issue, the whole doomer package.

This article was on the front page. I even have a copy and got a burst of energy to scan it in and webify it.
Image

It's not that the media is ignoring this, it's the people ignoring it. Nobody wants to know. I kept this because I used it to show my town council two years ago that an energy crisis was brewing and we needed to do something about it. They didn't want to know. They thought I was nuts, which is what I guess the masses think this article was.
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby evilgenius » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 04:38:47

I have heard a lot more talk about PO in the UK in just a few months than I heard in the US in years. I'm not convinced it will lead anywhere, but I am convinced that some in a position to do something are doing something.
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 04:45:48

I'm glad they're quick off the mark, it only took what, 7 years ?
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby lady-t » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 08:36:10

if i screwed up and posted a link someone else had already posted in a new thread, i apologize. i didn't see anything about it but i didn't search the entire forum.
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Re: They finally admit peak oil, with a more realistic timel

Postby Gazzatrone » Thu 14 Jun 2007, 20:32:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')his article was on the front page. I even have a copy and got a burst of energy to scan it in and webify it.
Image


I wonder what got more reaction/media coverage. Peak Oil, Katrina deaths or the Astro's.

Sweepstake anyone?

And if this report was concerning US oil alone, then a media 35 years behind the times means we are all really screwed as to informing the general public.
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