by Twilight » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 14:47:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'Y')ep, I've seen a similar article today about the Texas grid, boasting about how recommissioning mothballed plants boosted their spare capacity above 14% for this summer. Not only is that considered at the lowest margins of adequacy in countries such as the UK, but they forecast demand-driven erosion to around 10% by 2009, omitting to mention that at that point, there is no guarantee a demand surge or single plant failure won't trigger blackouts. Oh, and 50% is gas fired, with the decline rates being what, these days?
Ah, here we go.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his summer, ERCOT predicts, the state will need 62,669 megawatts of capacity and will have a 14.6 percent margin of excess reserves.
But the reserve margin will drop to 10.1 percent by 2009 and will decline each year as the population grows and folks demand more juice, it predicts.
That doesn't mean the lights will necessarily go out. It just means Texas has less of a safety net in case something goes wrong.This year's report shows wider margins because some generation plants were built and some old, mothballed plants returned to service.
Something always goes wrong. That's why you have a reserve margin. If you don't have one, then you
have lights out. It
happen "necessarily".