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Official warns of energy crisis

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Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby roccman » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 17:54:35

Link

"FERC commissioner Suedeen Kelly, speaking on her own behalf, said the situation is nothing short of a crisis.

"There's not enough time to build our way out," Kelly told the Western Governors' Association here Monday"



Popcorn please.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 17:58:27

"We can correctly call this a crisis," Kelly said. "We don't have enough time to build generation to meet increased demand this summer."

-Also from the article.

I was reading the article thinking it was 10 years out...but then at the end of the article I read the above quote from FERC.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:27:07

Yep, I've seen a similar article today about the Texas grid, boasting about how recommissioning mothballed plants boosted their spare capacity above 14% for this summer. Not only is that considered at the lowest margins of adequacy in countries such as the UK, but they forecast demand-driven erosion to around 10% by 2009, omitting to mention that at that point, there is no guarantee a demand surge or single plant failure won't trigger blackouts. Oh, and 50% is gas fired, with the decline rates being what, these days?
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:29:03

You can build a completely energy self sufficient home for about $40,000 in additional capital cost, or about 15% of the cost of a median American home. When governments start promoting this sort of development, you will know that they are serious about an energy crisis. Until then, they are just continuing their dance, with their corporate contributors.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby gw » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:35:52

How do they expect people to voluntarily conserve electricity when retail price controls are in effect?

Price controls lead to shortages, this has been demonstrated time and time again.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 18:38:27

Problem is, the capital may not exist, or there may be problems with its creation. I'm sure I'm just echoing something you have already considered, that when the time comes to roll up one's sleeves, the country may be unable to afford even what appear to be modest sums. $40k per house may be an unaffordable luxury by the time someone upstairs gets up off their ass.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 20:05:19

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')roblem is, the capital may not exist, or there may be problems with its creation. I'm sure I'm just echoing something you have already considered, that when the time comes to roll up one's sleeves, the country may be unable to afford even what appear to be modest sums. $40k per house may be an unaffordable luxury by the time someone upstairs gets up off their ass.


Unfortunately, what you are describing is the most likely scenario to occur! Peak Oil is much more deceitful creature than most can image.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Cobra_Strike » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 22:40:04

Show me a decent bit of property for less then or equal to 40K in the Northwest for one...I want one...

Important...this is one more person saying things are getting bad.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby retiredguy » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 22:43:01

Ditto what Gideon said. $16K worth of PV would give me 25% of my minimum electric usage. I do heat primarily with wood, but gas provides the secondary heat, all energy for cooking and hot water.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Revi » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 23:03:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can build a completely energy self sufficient home for about $40,000 in additional capital cost, or about 15% of the cost of a median American home.


This is flat out wrong and misleading.

Show me a home in the Northeast climate that you could make "self sufficient" for 40k. No way.

What are you going to heat with? That 25kw that you are pulling from the grid on a snowy winter day?

Are you using 1 lightbulb per floor and the thermostat is at 50?

Come on, be realistic.


You would need at least 2 acres of woodlot to get enough wood sustainably to heat a super-insulated place, $20,000 for a PV system and around $5000 for solar hot water. You could do it on $40,000 in addition to the cost of a very energy efficient house.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby kjmclark » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 23:15:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can build a completely energy self sufficient home for about $40,000 in additional capital cost, or about 15% of the cost of a median American home.


Show me a home in the Northeast climate that you could make "self sufficient" for 40k. No way.

What are you going to heat with? That 25kw that you are pulling from the grid on a snowy winter day?

Are you using 1 lightbulb per floor and the thermostat is at 50?

Come on, be realistic.


Well, "shortonoil" did say "build" and "in additional capital cost", and didn't say in the Northeast. Sounds like this means extra cost for new construction. Either in an average US climate or somewhere with a mild climate.

Heck, you could buy a wooded lot and a woodstove with an extra $40k. I think you'd have to be somewhere in the southwest to pull off the lighting, however. Everyone seems to forget water and transportation in this kind of accounting as well.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby manu » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:10:40

Or you could just build a sod house. Anyone who is in the upper Midwest or Northeast should be building these now if they are serious about living in those places.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby savethehumans » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 03:49:58

Also from that article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')The governor feels really what the state can do is set the stage and make the case that transmission is important," Freudenthal spokeswoman Cara Eastwood said. "It's a complex issue, and it's a challenging issue that has to be overcome in some way."

Perhaps he shall wave a magic wand, and POOF! All problems will be solved. Government and consumers live happily ever after! :roll:

But it's nice to know the guv thinks that transmission is important! :P
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 10:15:07

pstarr said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')hortonoil is right. For $40,000 you could buy


Thanks pstarr. I’m and ME and I have discussed this with an architect friend and some contractors; it has the potential to soon be a very lucrative business. There is a lot of off the self technology that could be readily employed: from fly wheel storage devices, wind generators, geothermal heat pumps and some great solar collection systems. Within three years energy prices should have escalated enough to make the ESSH (energy self sufficient home) a very practical and cost effective reality. Let’s just hope the whole monetary/financial system doesn’t collapse before it does.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Revi » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 12:07:50

Here's what we've done to our house and saved at least half our fossil fuel use. We have saved a lot of money too. I'm pretty sure it's almost paid for itself by now. We live in an ordinary house, but our bills are way less than half what our neighbors pay. The solar hot water has been doing really well lately. Over 150 degrees yesterday!

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Twilight » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 14:47:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'Y')ep, I've seen a similar article today about the Texas grid, boasting about how recommissioning mothballed plants boosted their spare capacity above 14% for this summer. Not only is that considered at the lowest margins of adequacy in countries such as the UK, but they forecast demand-driven erosion to around 10% by 2009, omitting to mention that at that point, there is no guarantee a demand surge or single plant failure won't trigger blackouts. Oh, and 50% is gas fired, with the decline rates being what, these days?

Ah, here we go.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his summer, ERCOT predicts, the state will need 62,669 megawatts of capacity and will have a 14.6 percent margin of excess reserves.

But the reserve margin will drop to 10.1 percent by 2009 and will decline each year as the population grows and folks demand more juice, it predicts.

That doesn't mean the lights will necessarily go out. It just means Texas has less of a safety net in case something goes wrong.

This year's report shows wider margins because some generation plants were built and some old, mothballed plants returned to service.

Something always goes wrong. That's why you have a reserve margin. If you don't have one, then you do have lights out. It does happen "necessarily".
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Judgie » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 22:19:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]pstarr said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')hortonoil is right. For $40,000 you could buy


Thanks pstarr. I’m and ME and I have discussed this with an architect friend and some contractors; it has the potential to soon be a very lucrative business. There is a lot of off the self technology that could be readily employed: from fly wheel storage devices, wind generators, geothermal heat pumps and some great solar collection systems. Within three years energy prices should have escalated enough to make the ESSH (energy self sufficient home) a very practical and cost effective reality. Let’s just hope the whole monetary/financial system doesn’t collapse before it does.


When petrol prices passed $1.30 over here people started having there cars converted to LPG, a small percentage of the population mind you because it was still out of reach for most people, financially. Then the government introduced a rebate scheme by which half the cost (approx. $2000 AU) would be covered by then. People jumped at the chance and demand shot through the roof, but before the first customer even submitted his order form, the price of conversion for a standard 4 door family sedan had jumped from Au $4000 to AU $6000+, once again putting it out of the reach of many. I can see the same thing happening with PV's, etc. Nothing beats corporate greed.

Get in now while you can still afford to.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby Revi » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 22:41:27

I think now that an official has noticed there may be a problem it is time to get things like solar panels. A friend got a bunch of Kyocera 100 watters for a nice price and is storing them for when he builds a place. I thought that it was a little excessive, but we had a silicon shortage and panels were very hard to get. We got our BP 75 watt panel just before they said that they were sold out for a year.

It's a good time to move on things. Before the herd panics. This summer they might start to stampede.
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Re: Official warns of energy crisis

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 13 Jun 2007, 23:08:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think now that an official has noticed there may be a problem it is time to get things like solar panels. A friend got a bunch of Kyocera 100 watters for a nice price and is storing them for when he builds a place. I thought that it was a little excessive, but we had a silicon shortage and panels were very hard to get. We got our BP 75 watt panel just before they said that they were sold out for a year.

It's a good time to move on things. Before the herd panics. This summer they might start to stampede.


Good point, Revi. I just need enough PV to power a water pump for some of the home rainwater/solar water heater use and a freezer. Would $5k be enough for just those two items? Time to go PV shopping...

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