by TheDude » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 19:53:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Y')ou guys are right. The airline industry is doomed and there won't be many airlines left by 2025.
Because by 2025 we will all be doing our air travel in our private flying cars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough pockets of the airline industry will remain as they are reinvented as a holiday destination - to Earth orbit.
Sound ridiculous? About as ridiculous that PO will destroy ALL airlines within 18 years. By 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.
OK, I give up, by what? Fusion powered nanobatteries?
Did you chime in on this thread, Om?
Metal nanoparticles show promise as future fuels "Best" news I'd heard in a while but only a couple replies, I assume the rank and file just sailed on past it.
I'd entertain some optimism but I bet we'll have plenty of rough sailing ahead simply from chaos/corruption/inertia.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
by Zardoz » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 20:44:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
The same thought occurred to me.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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by joewp » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 22:08:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
The same thought occurred to me.
We eat them for breakfast and either swallow them or spit out as full-fledged doomers.
And the airlines aren't the only ones in denial. Everybody is. Road projects are progressing, development is ongoing, plans are being made, people are shopping, even as Olduvai collapse starts nibbling at the ragged edges of civilization.
Joe P.
joeparente.com"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
by Omnitir » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 22:21:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Y')ou guys are right. The airline industry is doomed and there won't be many airlines left by 2025.
Because by 2025 we will all be doing our air travel in our private flying cars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough pockets of the airline industry will remain as they are reinvented as a holiday destination - to Earth orbit.
Sound ridiculous? About as ridiculous that PO will destroy ALL airlines within 18 years. By 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.
OK, I give up, by what? Fusion powered nanobatteries?
Did you chime in on this thread, Om?
Metal nanoparticles show promise as future fuels "Best" news I'd heard in a while but only a couple replies, I assume the rank and file just sailed on past it.
I'd entertain some optimism but I bet we'll have plenty of rough sailing ahead simply from chaos/corruption/inertia.
I was joking around with the flying cars bit. The point was to show that the concept is ridiculous - as ridiculous as believing that civilization will come to a crashing halt within 18 years. IMO, the likelihood of there being NO airlines in 18 years is about the same as there being Jetson's. Both are equally off in fantasy land.
But the energy crisis will be solved by the 2020's - with solar. We are awash in energy. There is more solar hitting the earth in a day than we could use in a year. Our ability to harness this energy is doubling roughly every 2 years. This is a very similar process to Moore's Law and microprocessors. We are currently with solar at about the same place we were with microchips in the late 70's early 80's. The solar boom is only just beginning, yet almost every discussion on this massive potential source of energy ignored exponential growth and assumes that solar is at a steady state.
"Do the math, it will take x amount of solar panels to power civilization..." cry the PO alpha males. Yet while these guys are quick to point out the exponential trends of population growth and resource depletion, they refuse to consider the exponential trends in other areas of growth, most notably, solar power. Do the math, with the trends of solar doubling every 2 years, within 20 years we will be able to attain more energy from the sun that we have ever been able to from fossil fuels, at any point in the game.
And yes, I did read your thread on nanoparticles as fuel, but I didn't post because I honestly don't know much about that subject. I found it interesting but need further understanding to be able to contribute anything to a discussion about nanoparticles as fuel (besides which, I'm generally trying to avoid posting on this site since my opinion is largely unwanted - though sometimes I just can't resist).
Ultimately though, between the exponential trends of solar and battery technology, it seems the biggest problem of PO will be liquid fuels in the foreseeable future, of which aviation appears to be the primary source. However if you take the automotive demand for liquid fuels out of the equation (because of the eventual superiority of EV's), than meeting the aviation requirements becomes far easier.
PO is a short term crisis. We could be screwed if civilization collapses in the next decade, but than, that's about as realistic as Ford releasing the anti-grav car within the next decade and solving all the worlds problems.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
"Mother Nature is a psychopathic bitch, and she is out to get you. You have to adapt, change or die." - Tihamer Toth-Fejel, nanotech researcher/engineer.
by cube » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 22:21:58
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
The same thought occurred to me.
Maybe they're not human! They could be
web robots.
by Novus » Mon 11 Jun 2007, 22:56:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
The same thought occurred to me.
I highly doubt that. New posters go through 4 stages that is similar to what pyscologists term death acceptancy. Finding out about PO is like a doctor telling you that you have AIDS or something.
In the first stage you would immeadiately go into denial saying: impossible, how?, well I never...
The second stage of death acceptancy is bargining where people grasp at what little staws there are to save themselves. In terms of PO it comes in form of faith in some out of the blue techno fix. Like people who say by 2020 we will have fusion.
The third stage is anger where people try to "kill the messenger." Note the charactor assassination of various prominent Peakers such as all the hate directed at Matt Savinar for LATOC.
The forth stage is obviously acceptance where we all become doomers.
by rsch20 » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 01:04:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
-IanC
everyone seems to be referring to Omnitir with this and the replies to it, yet he joined in 2005 and has over 800 posts...
He also raises a perfectly valid point. I don't have his faith that things won't collapse before solutions are found, I think things could go either way. But the solutions ARE there to be found, anyone care to respond to his actual point (exponential growth in solar technology) instead of just (falsely) bashing him?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'U')ltimately though, between the exponential trends of solar and battery technology, it seems the biggest problem of PO will be liquid fuels in the foreseeable future, of which aviation appears to be the primary source.
I posted this on the
We're Saved! Water for Fuel thread, should have probably made it as it's own topic as all I got for a response was Montequest and the 'no free lunch!' speech.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', 'h')ere's some real news on this topic.
http://www.physorg.com/news98556080.htmlJerry Woodall has discovered a chemical process for creating hydrogen, using aluminium and gallium, aluminium reacts with water to create hydrogen, normally it has an oxidised 'skin' on it that prevents the reaction, mixing it with gallium prevents the oxidisation from happening.
I listened to an article on NPR a couple days ago about this and they interviewed him, he stated that he doesn't see any major obstacles to this working on a large scale.
Jerry Woodall is the guy that brought us transistors, and the laser that makes your CD player work.
Quote:
Brief Biography: Jerry M. Woodall, the C. Baldwin Sawyer Professor of Electrical Engineering at Yale University, has conducted pioneering research in compound semiconductor materials and devices over a career spanning four decades. Fully half of the entire world's annual sales of compound semiconductor components are made possible by his research legacy. He invented electronic and optoelectronic devices seen ubiquitously in modern life, including the red LEDs used in indicators and stoplights, the infrared LED used in CD players, TV remote controls and computer networks, the high speed transistors used in cell phones and satellites, and the weight-efficient solar cell.
http://www.eng.yale.edu/faculty/vita/Wo ... d_info.htm This discovery (potentially) solves the 'liquid fuels crisis' part of the crisis.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '(')besides which, I'm generally trying to avoid posting on this site since my opinion is largely unwanted - though sometimes I just can't resist).
by Judgie » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 02:53:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'Y')ou guys are right. The airline industry is doomed and there won't be many airlines left by 2025.
Because by 2025 we will all be doing our air travel in our private flying cars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough pockets of the airline industry will remain as they are reinvented as a holiday destination - to Earth orbit.
Sound ridiculous? About as ridiculous that PO will destroy ALL airlines within 18 years. By 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.
OK, I give up, by what? Fusion powered nanobatteries?
Did you chime in on this thread, Om?
Metal nanoparticles show promise as future fuels "Best" news I'd heard in a while but only a couple replies, I assume the rank and file just sailed on past it.
I'd entertain some optimism but I bet we'll have plenty of rough sailing ahead simply from chaos/corruption/inertia.
I was joking around with the flying cars bit. The point was to show that the concept is ridiculous - as ridiculous as believing that civilization will come to a crashing halt within 18 years. IMO, the likelihood of there being NO airlines in 18 years is about the same as there being Jetson's. Both are equally off in fantasy land.
But the energy crisis will be solved by the 2020's - with solar. We are awash in energy. There is more solar hitting the earth in a day than we could use in a year. Our ability to harness this energy is doubling roughly every 2 years. This is a very similar process to Moore's Law and microprocessors. We are currently with solar at about the same place we were with microchips in the late 70's early 80's. The solar boom is only just beginning, yet almost every discussion on this massive potential source of energy ignored exponential growth and assumes that solar is at a steady state.
"Do the math, it will take x amount of solar panels to power civilization..." cry the PO alpha males. Yet while these guys are quick to point out the exponential trends of population growth and resource depletion, they refuse to consider the exponential trends in other areas of growth, most notably, solar power. Do the math, with the trends of solar doubling every 2 years, within 20 years we will be able to attain more energy from the sun that we have ever been able to from fossil fuels, at any point in the game.
And yes, I did read your thread on nanoparticles as fuel, but I didn't post because I honestly don't know much about that subject. I found it interesting but need further understanding to be able to contribute anything to a discussion about nanoparticles as fuel (besides which, I'm generally trying to avoid posting on this site since my opinion is largely unwanted - though sometimes I just can't resist).
Ultimately though, between the exponential trends of solar and battery technology, it seems the biggest problem of PO will be liquid fuels in the foreseeable future, of which aviation appears to be the primary source. However if you take the automotive demand for liquid fuels out of the equation (because of the eventual superiority of EV's), than meeting the aviation requirements becomes far easier.
PO is a short term crisis. We could be screwed if civilization collapses in the next decade, but than, that's about as realistic as Ford releasing the anti-grav car within the next decade and solving all the worlds problems.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
by frankthetank » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 11:09:52
While reading posts on this subject, Ozzy kept popping his head up in my brain...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')m going off the rails on a crazy train
Thats what the future looks like.
lawns should be outlawed.
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by 3rensho » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 13:12:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Judgie', '
')Yes Moore's law and cpu clock speeds, hmmmm........... clockspeeds of silicon based cpu, hit a brick wall 2 years ago (remember Intel saying backl in 2000 that we'd have 10ghz Pentium 4's as early as 2005?:
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/0,1000 ... 090,00.htm) with the last of the Pentium 4 series, at 3.8ghz. Now we have multiple lower-power core on chip processors, with clock speeds scaled back to 2ghz up to 2.6 in the mere-mortal range. 3ghz is only available now to people willing to spend $1000+ on a cpu.
The problem with this? most commonly used applications do not successfully scale beyond a single thread due to their very nature OR do not require more than one. However, I do enjoy running more than one app at a time
. That's where multi-core shines.
Not to derail this any further, but Moore's Law talks about transistor counts, not clock speeds and is still holding. For how long is anyone's guess however.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oore's Law is the empirical observation made in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 months.
You have incorrectly equated clock speed to computing power, a common layman mistake. Likewise you have some similar layman's views on multi-core and computer architecture in general that are essentially incorrect.
This book would be a good place to start if this topic is of your interest:
Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach
By John L. Hennessy and David A. Patterson
Having taught the subject for a few years I am used to seeing Moore's Law misinterpreted or misused in areas where it has no application. Clock speeds is a common misinterpretation and to be clear, I do not mean anything in my post as an insult towards you.
by Zardoz » Tue 12 Jun 2007, 14:34:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rsch20', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IanC', 'H')as anyone else noticed all of these new posters with less than 25 total posts who are very pro "renewables", "substitutes", and generally very PO skeptical? Not to sound paranoid, but they seem like industry plants to me.
everyone seems to be referring to Omnitir with this and the replies to it, yet he joined in 2005 and has over 800 posts...
Really? So 25 is the same as 800? Hello?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'B')y 2025 the energy crisis will be solved.
How can we, or anybody else, possibly take him seriously when he spouts nonsense like that?
