The Canadian and US economies are becoming more and more divergent.
We don't have this insanity in our real estate market. Our home prices keep rising slowly and steadily (at least here in Ontario).
US lenders were using the mirror test for mortgage qualifications. (If you can fog a mirror, you pass). We didn't have this stupidity happening here.
Also our dollar is not tanking like the greenback. In fact many analysts see it being on par by the end of this year. It's about $0.94 right now
PeakOil is You
800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by Niagara » Wed 06 Jun 2007, 11:06:17
Remember: 73.3% of statistics are made up
and the other 23.6% are wrong
and the other 23.6% are wrong
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by strider3700 » Wed 06 Jun 2007, 13:00:36
Out here in BC my house is up 20% from last year which was 20% over the year before. The market is insane. We're reaching the point that a crack shack in the worst part of town is now worth $200,000 so many new buyers are getting priced out of the market.
But don't worry there is a solution. When I went to see shrek 3 there was an ad pushing zero down mortgages that aired before it. Something about getting what you want when you want it. My crack about never mind being able to pay for what you buy received a few chuckles from the crowd mostly the older audience but didn't seem to go over so well with a lot of people.
We're not as screwed as the US yet but like everything else we are just lagging behind a few years.
But don't worry there is a solution. When I went to see shrek 3 there was an ad pushing zero down mortgages that aired before it. Something about getting what you want when you want it. My crack about never mind being able to pay for what you buy received a few chuckles from the crowd mostly the older audience but didn't seem to go over so well with a lot of people.
We're not as screwed as the US yet but like everything else we are just lagging behind a few years.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by threadbear » Wed 06 Jun 2007, 13:16:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', 'T')he Canadian and US economies are becoming more and more divergent.
We don't have this insanity in our real estate market. Our home prices keep rising slowly and steadily (at least here in Ontario).
US lenders were using the mirror test for mortgage qualifications. (If you can fog a mirror, you pass). We didn't have this stupidity happening here.
Also our dollar is not tanking like the greenback. In fact many analysts see it being on par by the end of this year. It's about $0.94 right now
We don't have this insanity in our real estate market. Our home prices keep rising slowly and steadily (at least here in Ontario).
US lenders were using the mirror test for mortgage qualifications. (If you can fog a mirror, you pass). We didn't have this stupidity happening here.
Also our dollar is not tanking like the greenback. In fact many analysts see it being on par by the end of this year. It's about $0.94 right now
The growing strength of our dollar relative to the American dollar is going to hurt our commodities market, eventually. Also, be aware that our other major market for commodities, China, could well be headed for a downturn.
I wouldn't want to be David Dodge right now, as we have an interest rate dilemna unfolding. If he raises rates to control inflation, the Cad dollar strengthens further and that hurts commodities. If he drops them, we could be in for hellacious inflation. I'm sure feeling prices shooting up where I am.
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by truecougarblue » Wed 06 Jun 2007, 17:06:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '
')We don't have this insanity in our real estate market. Our home prices keep rising slowly and steadily (at least here in Ontario).
')We don't have this insanity in our real estate market. Our home prices keep rising slowly and steadily (at least here in Ontario).
I'm sure it's different there, just like it's different in Tampa, Miami, San Diego, Boston, New York, and LA.
As the global credit tide recedes over the next couple of years all boats will descend, and some will be found swimming naked.
It's different here (or this time) is the last argument for those trying to explain away a mania.
Cougar
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without." - Brigham Young
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by firestarter » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 11:18:08
The 10yr note is yielding 5.10% right now. Housing inventories are also on a parabolic ascension:
WSJ inventory chart
All this and the triple sell signal (equities) out of Morgan Stanley yesterday that's only been present five other times since 1980. Supposedly this indicates at least a 15% drop in market value over the next six months.
Take cover.
WSJ inventory chart
All this and the triple sell signal (equities) out of Morgan Stanley yesterday that's only been present five other times since 1980. Supposedly this indicates at least a 15% drop in market value over the next six months.
Take cover.
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by roccman » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 00:28:12
Roubini at the American Enterprise Institute
http://housingdoom.com/2007/05/16/roubini-at-aei/
Check out these sound bytes!
"… we are literally in a subprime economy …" [0:23:20]
"… we’re nowhere near close to the bottom of the housing recession." [0:25:10]
"[the YOY housing decline is] closer to ten percent, even if the official number is telling you otherwise." [0:26:06]
"I would argue that about fifty percent if not more of all originational mortgages for the last couple of years would be things I would consider as reckless — as just toxic waste." [0:27:21]
"They’re not tightening standards only for subprime. They’re doing it across the board." [0:28:15]
"… regulators … were asleep at the wheel for six years, under the ideology they should not regulate markets …" [0:28:21]
"if you’re going to have a significant interruption in the CDO market then the whole financing base for the residential MBS market … is going to essentially falter" [0:29:10]
"… until you work out this glut .. of housing … we’re not going to see a recovery." [0:35:53]
http://housingdoom.com/2007/05/16/roubini-at-aei/
Check out these sound bytes!
"… we are literally in a subprime economy …" [0:23:20]
"… we’re nowhere near close to the bottom of the housing recession." [0:25:10]
"[the YOY housing decline is] closer to ten percent, even if the official number is telling you otherwise." [0:26:06]
"I would argue that about fifty percent if not more of all originational mortgages for the last couple of years would be things I would consider as reckless — as just toxic waste." [0:27:21]
"They’re not tightening standards only for subprime. They’re doing it across the board." [0:28:15]
"… regulators … were asleep at the wheel for six years, under the ideology they should not regulate markets …" [0:28:21]
"if you’re going to have a significant interruption in the CDO market then the whole financing base for the residential MBS market … is going to essentially falter" [0:29:10]
"… until you work out this glut .. of housing … we’re not going to see a recovery." [0:35:53]
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by roccman » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 10:23:28
Hey, the good news is Paris goes back...
Popcorn please.
Flood of foreclosures could drive home prices lower
"This will decimate the housing market"
Mortgage Rates Jumping Again
State Realtors see '07 sales down 14%
Popcorn please.
Flood of foreclosures could drive home prices lower
"This will decimate the housing market"
Mortgage Rates Jumping Again
State Realtors see '07 sales down 14%
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by roccman » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 10:51:30
Countrywide Statement
“If we can milk it along for a few years, we have a chance of recovery,” said Mike Gross, Eestern managing director for Countrywide Home Loans. “Otherwise, your business gets wiped out.”
Oh well - reality sucks.
Pass the popcorn please.
“If we can milk it along for a few years, we have a chance of recovery,” said Mike Gross, Eestern managing director for Countrywide Home Loans. “Otherwise, your business gets wiped out.”
Oh well - reality sucks.
Pass the popcorn please.
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by strider3700 » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 21:13:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he first step needed, all speakers agreed, was greater education and information on the mortgage-lending process for present and future homeowners.
heh nice try. The general population at this point don't care to learn about anything. Never mind trying to teach them about a mortgage. The first step needed is to set some restrictions to loaning money and enforce them. 15 years ago you wouldn't have had this many subprime loans made simply because banks knew they would lose everything if they did.
shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
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Re: 800 BILLION in IO/ARMs to Reset
by Twilight » Sat 09 Jun 2007, 21:55:48
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '1')5 years ago you wouldn't have had this many subprime loans made simply because banks knew they would lose everything if they did.
Shame it's too late to set an example. Let one household name bank go to the wall, tens of thousands of employees made redundant, investors hitting the bottle, people in every city openly weeping in the street. That would focus the mind. Give everyone else that extra little bit of motivation to get their act together. Would have been handy back in the 90s before the dotcom madness.
Those mistakes must be being repeated in the UK too. The average house price was £100k in 2002, then £200k in 2007, now we're looking at 10x salary mortgages soon? It was 3x within living memory. There's got to be mistakes being made, products being mis-sold. Pop the damn bubble already. I don't feel all sentimental about the fate of a few people when the road ends with everyone screwed otherwise. Spot of triage would do everyone a world of good. Harrumph.
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