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Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by peripato » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 04:01:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')pening up the taps would oversupply the market, and cause prices to drop.
Opening up the taps could also provide more of a spur for their products by accelerating world GDP growth, which is what we've been witnessing the past few years. One could argue the reverse that not supplying the market at such high prices can cause a slowdown in growth and consequently a turndown in demand for product.
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by pup55 » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 07:17:05
Hello, Robert:
I am with you on several points:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic27445-0-asc-0.html
The main one being that we are looking at the data and from that trying to imply "intent". Or, rather, making the assumption that Saudi's statements about their ability to incease output are necessarily false.
As to the HL method, I always thought it was a really interesting calculation, and gives elegant graphs and results, but it is a big world, the thing we are trying to measure is underground, and so difficult to apply this globally. I think it ought to work great for smaller fields with finite boundaries.
Stop back and visit us again.
I am with you on several points:
http://peakoil.com/fortopic27445-0-asc-0.html
The main one being that we are looking at the data and from that trying to imply "intent". Or, rather, making the assumption that Saudi's statements about their ability to incease output are necessarily false.
As to the HL method, I always thought it was a really interesting calculation, and gives elegant graphs and results, but it is a big world, the thing we are trying to measure is underground, and so difficult to apply this globally. I think it ought to work great for smaller fields with finite boundaries.
Stop back and visit us again.
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pup55 - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by WebHubbleTelescope » Thu 07 Jun 2007, 23:03:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '
')As to the HL method, I always thought it was a really interesting calculation, and gives elegant graphs and results, but it is a big world, the thing we are trying to measure is underground, and so difficult to apply this globally. I think it ought to work great for smaller fields with finite boundaries.
')As to the HL method, I always thought it was a really interesting calculation, and gives elegant graphs and results, but it is a big world, the thing we are trying to measure is underground, and so difficult to apply this globally. I think it ought to work great for smaller fields with finite boundaries.
Hubbert Linearization relies on the mathematical characteristics of the logistic curve. The logistic is a nonlinear variant of a stochastic differential equation which requires a rather large aggregate of entities to hold true. As fields get smaller and finiteness looms, the laws of stochastic processes give way to determinism. Why again would HL work better on smaller fields?
Let me put this another way: If we have a finite cube of oil containing crust, say 1000 meters on a side, how would you from first principles derive anything that derived a logistic equation?
This can't be that hard to do! Yet know one has done this exercise. You know why? Because you can't. The fundamental equation describing the logistic curve does not describe anything on this scale or these units. The only thing close it describes is population dynamics, and population dynamics does not play out on a smaller field.
Birth and death rates, P = population:
B = B0 - B1*P
D = D0 + D1*P
Population dynamics:
dP/dt = (B-D)*P
expanding
dP/dt = (B0-B1*P-D0-D1*P)*P = (B0-D0)*P - (B1+D1)*P[sup]2[/sup]
correlating to the logistic:
dP/dt = rP*(1-P/P[sub]infinity[/sub])
So where again does oil fit into this derivation?
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WebHubbleTelescope - Tar Sands
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by threadbear » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 00:39:00
Exactly Web Hubble, You took the words right out of my mouth! 
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 01:43:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'E')xactly Web Hubble, You took the words right out of my mouth!
That's what happens on a forum called "Depletion Modeling". Mathematical wankery at its finest.
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WebHubbleTelescope - Tar Sands
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Re: Saudi Arabia isn't Texas
by pup55 » Fri 08 Jun 2007, 15:47:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy again would HL work better on smaller fields?
Perhaps size of the field is less important than the complexity of the region in question, and the ability to extract the field in a non-constrained way. Examples: The HL curve for Norway is fine: the fields were a known size, pumped in an organized fashion, and no revolutions or invasions to contend with, so the HL method works fine in predicting with good accuracy the shape of the curve.
However, the case of Iran is quite different due to the above-ground chaos associated with the way the region was exploited.
The importance of the "rather large aggregate of entities" is that the noisy outliers are averaged out. I see your point on this.
I do not know enough math to get into an argument on this, except to say that enough of the world's oil production comes from places like Saudi and Russia and Iran that have constrained extraction rates because of political factors, that it may throw off the global calculation enough to make a difference.
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