[threadbear]

I found this article by a fellow named Robert Rapier. He is urging caution in drawing too close a parallel between Texas oil rate of depletion and depletion rates in Saudi Arabia.

Robert Rapier-- Depletion Modelling

It is invalid to use three decades of hindsight for refining the Texas forecast, because we clearly don't have the same option with Saudi Arabia. Yet some argue that the Saudi peak can be forecast with confidence using the knowledge obtained from the case of Texas – a region in which the uncertainty of the method spanned almost 3 decades.

http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/search/label/texas

I like the lack of fundamentalism in his approach. I also appreciate the fact that he grasps the obvious problems with supply.

[Ebyss]

I think Rapier contributes regularly to the Oil Drum too - is that the same guy?

[threadbear]

I'm not certain, but I'm sure he'd be welcomed there. He seems to know what he's talking about!

[Colorado-Valley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')'m not certain, but I'm sure he'd be welcomed there. He seems to know what he's talking about!

[threadbear]

From what I read his point of view seems to ameliorate the excessive doom found in some of the less rational posts in the energy forums. He seems apolitical too, which eliminates some of the prerequisite raving, (unfortunately).

The best analyst of this subject would be a geologist or engineer with a political science background and an understanding of market dynamics. But he will do until such a creature comes along.

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', '
')

He's prominent at The Oil Drum. He's a good guy, knowledgeable and he and West Texas have an interesting long-term discussion going about how eminent peak oil actually is.

Robert thinks we still have a few years ...

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'R')obert Rapier was among the more optimistic (David Cohen being another) regulars at the Oildrum. Those two are in decendence as the very convincing argument for SA decline by Westexas, Stuart, Euran (and tons of others) continue to gain validity.

SA petroleum is in a severe waterless remote environment and the overhead precludes small fry, small wells, small production like in Texas. The desert is no place for hobby wildcatters and weekend producers. So no, SA is not Texas and its decline will be more abrupt and proportionately more petroleum will be left in the ground.

[benzoil]

Robert's posts over at TOD are excellent reading. IIRC, the difference in estimates of peak isn't much -like 2010 instead of 2005. Just enough to be worth debating. Of course, being the Oil Drum, everything is very technical and the debates get much more into the minutia than we do over here at po.com.

Robert has a blog as well, which I have not read, but comes recommended. I'm not sure I agree with all his assessments, but I don't dismiss them lightly.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '
')Are Westexas Stuart and Euran pseudonyms or their actual names?

[PraiseDoom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't get you PraiseDoom. Are you an ironic doomer or a smirking sceptic?

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') don't get you PraiseDoom. Are you an ironic doomer or a smirking sceptic?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') actually see govts taking steps in that direction, so am not as concerned as I once was.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') hear you. There is obvioiusly something wrong with a lot of the original analysis from many posters, which indicated an imminent threat. I think much of it comes from drawing too close a parallel between Texas and Saudi Arabia, ignoring the politics of the situation, and acceptance, at face value, of anything which supported their point of view.

Pretty soon, the only people remaining on the forums are ones who hold that singular point of view. The threat is ALWAYS just around the corner, it's always purely geological in origin and if you try to alter, add to or tweak that basic premise in any appreciable way, you are demonized. The energy forums have become just the sort of echo chamber that creates religions, fads etc...

There is a problem and it might unfold this summer, next summer or ten summers from now. If it's around about years from now, as Rapier outlines, that's several more years to prepare. That is crucial and I actually see govts taking steps in that direction, so am not as concerned as I once was. My major fear is economic depression which will occur, regardless of whether we have a catastrophic energy collapse, or not. Jut my two cents worth of efamol.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')A petroleum is in a severe waterless remote environment and the overhead precludes small fry, small wells, small production like in Texas. The desert is no place for hobby wildcatters and weekend producers. So no, SA is not Texas and its decline will be more abrupt and proportionately more petroleum will be left in the ground.

[kjmclark]

Actually Robert's position is that it isn't clear whether Saudi Arabia has peaked or not, but the "Hubbert Linearization" is a fairly flawed tool to decide the matter. He has said that he suspects we have a (very) few years yet until world C+C peak, but I don't recall him taking a position on Saudi Arabia, except to say that we will see when Saudi Arabia is called upon to produce more crude. He hasn't disagreed, that I know of, that Saudi production has been declining for many months, but whether that means they're having trouble with Ghawar isn't something Robert has made a conclusion about.

Euan Mearns has his PhD in isotope geochemistry. He posts mostly at The Oil Drum Europe.

Robert had a very good post (the first in a short series) today on TOD on why gas prices are as high as they are. There was a heated discussion between Robert and another poster who took the position that the prices are due to oil price collusion among the big oil companies. Robert was describing the standard economic version, with extra understanding of the refinery system.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', 'A')ctually Robert's position is that it isn't clear whether Saudi Arabia has peaked or not, but the "Hubbert Linearization" is a fairly flawed tool to decide the matter. He has said that he suspects we have a (very) few years yet until world C+C peak, but I don't recall him taking a position on Saudi Arabia, except to say that we will see when Saudi Arabia is called upon to produce more crude. He hasn't disagreed, that I know of, that Saudi production has been declining for many months, but whether that means they're having trouble with Ghawar isn't something Robert has made a conclusion about.

Euan Mearns has his PhD in isotope geochemistry. He posts mostly at The Oil Drum Europe.

Robert had a very good post (the first in a short series) today on TOD on why gas prices are as high as they are. There was a heated discussion between Robert and another poster who took the position that the prices are due to oil price collusion among the big oil companies. Robert was describing the standard economic version, with extra understanding of the refinery system.