Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

How pessimistic are you?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Pessimism or Optimism over the next 10 years

100% Pessimistic: Global anarchy + wholesale slaughter before 2015
6
No votes
75% Pessimistic: Widespread anarchy, especially in the USA
12
No votes
50% Pessimistic: Massive energy and food shortage, but everyone pulls together for the common weal
29
No votes
25% Pessimistic: Small energy and food shortage but compensated by a healthier way of life
8
No votes
0% Pessimistic: No significant change
1
No votes
25% Optimistic: Small increase of energy and food supply
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 57

Unread postby 0mar » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 04:52:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Devil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', '
')Wasn't there almost total anarchy when fuel was denied access to Britan. I distinctly remember reading about that.


You should really not read the tabloid newspapers. No, everyone, practically without exception, took the privations in their stride. Of course, a small black market developed, but this was severely repressed by the justice. Many black marketeers were practically lynched by the public, which showed a remarkable solidarity.

The main heating fuel of that time was coal. We had minimal fires and hesitated before putting on another lump. We were enjoined to use only 5 inches of water in our weekly bath. A catch-phrase of the war was "Is your journey REALLY necessary?". Even though they required steel, in short supply, bicycles were available.

All the petroleum companies operated under government control in a pool and produced a single grade of minimal quality motor fuel, labelled 'Pool'. When a small ration was reintroduced for private cars, the fuel for commercial vehicles, which obviously had a more generous ration, was coloured red and had a chemical added, to avoid a black market of "commercial" petrol being sold for private use. Before that, when the ration was zero for private or non-essential use of the car, anyone caught going down to the shops or taking the kids to school would be thrown in clink and fined a week's salary.

No, I can assure you that we were doing everything to win that war, with good grace. The UK was never so united in its spirit as during those years of conflict.


I didn't mean WWII, I meant more recently.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')This spreading of rolling blackouts will ultimately cause severe recession, especially as oil prices go higher, which will happen later this decade. Oil powers airplanes, electricity, jobs. Bartlett is quoted as noting that modern agriculture is merely a way of converting petroleum into food! Without energy, food supplies decrease. But not only supplies, deliverability decreases as well. Here in the UK we saw a very brief vision of things to come. Last September the truckers, in a protest blockaded the refineries for about two and a half weeks. Reports from that show how quickly problems can develop in an industrial society when the oil runs out. Here is what Independent Television Networks said:
"Huge queues of motorists built-up at petrol stations late into the night and from early this morning in Oxfordshire as drivers filled up their tanks. "
http://www3.itn.co.uk/specials/Septembe ... fuel.shtml
Food was short:
"The fuel crisis sparked a rash of panic buying, and some stores ran out of milk and bread. The Royal Mail said Thursday it was suspending Sunday collections, to conserve fuel.
"In Yorkshire, the Malton Bacon Factory said it would have to stop slaughtering pigs, while Webb Country Foods in southeastern England said 6 million chicks might starve by Friday unless feed deliveries resumed." http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSGas/gas1_sep14.html
Schools closed http://www.cwn.org.uk/business/Fuel-Protests/
Public services were closing down http://www.cwn.org.uk/business/Fuel-Pro ... rvices.htm
The food was running out of store shelves after 2.5 weeks of no petrol. What food got to the stores was quickly 'looted' by people hoarding food. It is amazing how rapidly starvation could set in if the oil were suddenly cut off. Just as it ended, I was beginning to wonder what Peterculter (where I live) would look like with 250,000 people from Aberdeen wandering the countryside searching for food. I am only .3 mile away from sheep I can steal and if I get hungry enough there are a couple of juicy horses that direction also. But successfully carrying a sheep back home with 250,000 other hungry people/predators swarming over the countryside would be a real problem. Hospitals were only doing emergency operations and the police departments in smaller towns were having trouble getting fuel to drive their cars and do their job of protecting us. We were probably a week away from utter anarchy in the UK when the drivers called off the blockade.

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Future_oil_supply.htm
Joseph Stalin
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything. "
User avatar
0mar
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1499
Joined: Tue 12 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Davis, California

Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 06:50:25

Omar,

The big difference was that the petrol blockades , meant that ALL supplies were cut off suddenly all at once. As you know Peak oil isnt NO OIL , it is a reducing supply over decades. It is what is implementated to manage the situation during these decades that will decide our collective fate. It will be all about how we use what oil that we do have.

The WWII rationing experience demonstrates how little oil the country can (just about) survive on , despite having the resource drain of being bombed to f**k and supporting the military in a war scenario.

PB :)
User avatar
Permanently_Baffled
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1151
Joined: Thu 12 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: England

Unread postby Chocky » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 08:51:16

Of course Britain has changed quite a lot since WW2 hasn't it. Society is less cohesive and the population is much greater for a start.

Don't forget also that Britain was also completely dependent on the US for survival, something that can't be guaranteed.
User avatar
Chocky
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 485
Joined: Wed 20 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: The Land of Do-As-You-Please

Unread postby Apathy » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 09:00:11

*sigh*

I voted 0%

It doesn't really matter to me.
User avatar
Apathy
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu 06 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 09:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', 'O')f course Britain has changed quite a lot since WW2 hasn't it. Society is less cohesive and the population is much greater for a start.

Don't forget also that Britain was also completely dependent on the US for survival, something that can't be guaranteed.


I haven't forgotten any of this , what you have to take into account is that Britain has a far greater self sufficiency in food than it did pre and during WWII. Ten years ago self sufficiency in food reached 85%, it is around 70% now becuase of cheap imports, but then there is 1.5 million hectares of arable land not being used. Britains reliance on the US is minimal now, as a far greater proportion of our trade and economic ties are with the EC. Also the UK has its own resources, althugh declining , North sea gas/oil will make some contribution to at least 2025.

As for the population, this has increased from 47 million in the forties to 60 million now. Not ideal, but this isn't a massive increase really compared to the increase in capacity of essential industries. Also the birth rate is 1.5 and has been below two for at least a decade. This would mean that once immigration slows due to draconian policies or lack of incentive(due to less jobs , no benefits) then the population will fall.

Agree with you on the social cohesion point , this could go either way. This is an area which is going to have to be carefully managed. The challenge is going to be educating people that chaos and anarchy will make things worse not better. And I believe the majority will "muck in", rather than devolve into a mad max society!

PB :)
User avatar
Permanently_Baffled
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1151
Joined: Thu 12 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: England

Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 09:40:14

Hello Folks,

Can I point out that Ireland (Eire as it was known during WWII) provided Britain with huge quantities of Agricultural produce. I can see UK and Ireland rowing together in any future PP world. Cohesion is breaking down in Ireland as in the UK but even looking at the public response in UK and Ireland to Tsunami disaster it seems that people are still basically decent and generous. I think PO will bring society together. Even locally here where I live a young boy has gone missing and thousands of people are out helping in the search. Nothing like a struggle to bring people together (in this part of the world anyway). Mad Max scenarios are not going to happen in UK or Ireland IMO - in fact I think the prospect is ridiculous.
User avatar
Madpaddy
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2043
Joined: Fri 25 Jun 2004, 03:00:00

Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 10:09:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Madpaddy', 'H')ello Folks,

Can I point out that Ireland (Eire as it was known during WWII) provided Britain with huge quantities of Agricultural produce. I can see UK and Ireland rowing together in any future PP world.


Agreed.

PB
User avatar
Permanently_Baffled
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1151
Joined: Thu 12 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: England
Top

Unread postby oowolf » Fri 07 Jan 2005, 18:19:06

I'm going 75%. Anarchy won't be caused by lack of oil, but by financial meltdown. The great depression wasn't caused by a lack of banks, but by fiscal irresponsibility according to historian Paul A. Gusmorino. "Main Causes of the Great Depression" 1996. Maldistribution of wealth-too much in the hands of too few, excessive speculation, and undersecured debt fed a balloon that had to burst. Look around you. Commercial aviation going down in flames of debt, consumeroid junkies with triple mortgages and maxed-out credit cards, a smoke-and-mirrors fiat-money system that's nothing more than a colossal scam, puppetmaster Greenspan, corporate and political corruption endemic, the mass of people (in US anyway) reduced to a pathological state of dependence-how much of what you really need to survive do you actually produce ? This is all coming down like a cast iron blimp. Hard with few survivors.
User avatar
oowolf
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1337
Joined: Tue 09 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Big Rock Candy Mountain

Previous

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron