[SevenTen]

Is it pessimistic or realistic to recognize our own mortality?

Is it wisdom or instinct that allows us to perceive a threat and take some action against it?

Billions will die in the next century, certainly, as in 100 years virtually everyone alive right now will have shuffled off this mortal coil.

Unfortunately we won't have to wait that long.

The options we have available depend on time we don't have, a broad spectrum of rapidly depleting resources, stability we can't ensure, and growth we can't maintain.

Most predictions on this site are optimistic. Including Monte's.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'F')irstly LNG - You say each terminal cost a 'billion a pop' do you have any idea how insignificant a billion dollars is in governmental terms? You could initiate development of 100 tomorrow without breaking a sweat from a financial point of view.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'O')nly time will tell.

[nero]

I think we on this forum tend to be overly perssimistic about peak oil but I don't think that is representative of the overall peak oil aware community. My thought is that both the doomers and the optimists will most likely be right depending on where you live. I think Iraq is a current example of what the pessimists might expect peak oil to be like. People fighting over the remaining oil reserves, (And yes, Iraq at this point is all about the oil) with massive waves of refugees destabilizing neighbouring countries. I don't expect the United States to fall apart any time soon but I would be a bit worried about Mexico being a source of instability to the south.

The key problems of peak oil as other's have pointed out are primarily political. And that means having strong governance and strong institutions. Things we just haven't got in to many places of the world.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'T')he other key point is you seem to believe the decline will be a quick collapse, I really don’t agree.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'F')irstly LNG - You say each terminal cost a 'billion a pop' do you have any idea how insignificant a billion dollars is in governmental terms? You could initiate development of 100 tomorrow without breaking a sweat from a financial point of view.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')1) Efficiency - You quote Jevons Paradox, that increased efficiency increases demand, however, this theory assumes that supply remains constant.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '3')) Conservation – You assume conservation means a recession, again you base this view on the economic difficulties faced in the 70’s when conservation was last in vogue in the US. However, while there was economic hardship in 70’s, it was due to high interest rates resulting from double digit inflation. It is, however, completely illogical to assume conservation will lead to recession. What it will lead to is a greater amount of disposable income from both a consumer and corporate point of view as corporations and consumers reduce their energy bills though the elimination of wasteful activity. Far from leading to economic depression, it will help to compensate for higher oil prices and boost consumption levels.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '4')) Renewables – You quote current renewable figures but they don’t reflect the possibility of renewables.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I') think the key difference in our views is our belief in what government can do when necessary. Maybe it’s American small government, free-market ideology and all that, but given you retooled your entire economy in the late 30’s early 40’s and built the greatest war machine the world has ever seen you would think you could provide the, maybe, $500 billion of energy infrastructure needed.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Well, TPTB have decided it is far better to invade countries to ensure the flow of oil rather than invest in our energy future.

We were the #1 creditor nation in the 30's and 40's, the
#1 producer of energy and manufactured goods. No we are the #1 debtor nation, #1 importer of energy, and have outsourced most of our industrial production.

Not the same situation this time.

And that's the bottom line, we don't have the time to do these things.

[bshirt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'F')irstly LNG - You say each terminal cost a 'billion a pop' do you have any idea how insignificant a billion dollars is in governmental terms? You could initiate development of 100 tomorrow without breaking a sweat from a financial point of view.

[AgentR]

Pessimism is in the eye of the beholder really. I tend to think of myself as very pessimistic; yet I do not put any stock in the "fast collapse" theories. I tend to believe that price pressure moderates demand more effectively than others; and that demand destruction is not a problem, but rather part of the moderation process.

Evaluating things long term, you have to observe how much value is contained in gallon of gasoline. Looking back to a pre-petrol era, how many man hours of labor would be required to replicate what can be achieved by consuming that gasoline; then put that in the context of what unskilled labor costs in the US at the moment. ($10/hr or so). That is how high the price of fuel can go. And along the one, demand destruction should kick in and put the clamps on the growth machine so that we end up with a long, endless recession, but with decent liquidity.

So, in such an environment, do you have the means to take a vacation to the bahamas? Probably not. Do you have the means to cool a 3000 sf house... not likley. Do you have the means to ride a moped into town to keep your job. No problem. And with that solid, middle class job, you will be able to afford some bread or rice, some pickles or canned beans, and an occassional piece of meat to go with it. Your kids won't starve, they'll still play in the street, their jeans might be torn from use instead of fashion, and eating out will be a distant memory of the elderly...

So relax.. the show's just getting started.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'S')o, in such an environment, do you have the means to take a vacation to the bahamas? Probably not. Do you have the means to cool a 3000 sf house... not likley. Do you have the means to ride a moped into town to keep your job. No problem. And with that solid, middle class job, you will be able to afford some bread or rice, some pickles or canned beans, and an occassional piece of meat to go with it. Your kids won't starve, they'll still play in the street, their jeans might be torn from use instead of fashion, and eating out will be a distant memory of the elderly...

[roccman]

PA wrote: "There are large gas reserves in Alaska, and plans are afoot to build a gas pipeline to hook into Canadian gas pipelines which hook into US gas pipelines. There are also gas fields around the Gulf region that are currently producing."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....

"If we look at bringing new gas in from say the Arctic, the Beaufort McKenzie, the known deposits in the Beaufort McKenzie are about 6 trillion cubic feet. That's what the economics of the McKenzie Valley Pipeline have to be based on, and we think we're going to find more. But, right now, that's what we've got in order to build the McKenzie Valley Pipeline. And the planned maximum capacity of that pipeline is 1.9 Bcf a day, or billion cubic feet per day. In the face of a 2.3 billion cubic feet per day requirement, just for the oil sands. So the McKenzie Valley Pipeline is not a panacea to offset declines in conventional production, unless we find some other way to recover the oil from the oil sands."

http://globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/827

A VERY SOBERING interview with an insider.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')The US has a significant problem regarding supply, as it has no gas

[roccman]

And for a place like Phoenix that gets guite a bit of its electricity from NG ...keeping the lights on will be a stretch.

Monte - you rocc bro!!!

Keep it up with da FACTS!!!

Down with dogma and disinfo!!!!

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')nd for a place like Phoenix that gets guite a bit of its electricity from NG ...keeping the lights on will be a stretch.

Monte - you rocc bro!!!

Keep it up with da FACTS!!!

Down with dogma and disinfo!!!!

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'A')nd for a place like Phoenix that gets guite a bit of its electricity from NG ...keeping the lights on will be a stretch.