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Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 01:25:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', ' ')Above nature? No. Not subject to its laws? Nature's laws are harsh and unforgiving to anything. But man is capable of manipulating nature and exploiting technicalities in its laws.


Hubris. No he is not. He just thinks he is.

And if you try to cite examples, you are just putting your foot farther into your mouth.

The Indian mistrusted the White man not because he spoke with a forked tongue, but because he presummed he could improve nature.
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 01:52:41

I'm not at all saying man can improve nature, but instead use it to or manipulate it to his advantage. This isn't hubris so much as it is our level of technology. However, by doing so, man is indeed playing with fire. Doing such is not without its risks.

Incase you misread what I stated, man is subject to natures laws and is not above it. But that doesn't mean man can't or doesn't play nature like the hoochiest of skanks. When nature finally figures it out, tisk tisk...
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 09:52:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', ' ')I'm not at all saying man can improve nature, but instead use it to or manipulate it to his advantage. This isn't hubris so much as it is our level of technology. However, by doing so, man is indeed playing with fire. Doing such is not without its risks.


No, he cannot. He just thinks so from the temporary results of attempting to do so.

Man interferes with nature rather than try to live in balance with it. It's all hubris.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ncase you misread what I stated, man is subject to natures laws and is not above it. But that doesn't mean man can't or doesn't play nature like the hoochiest of skanks. When nature finally figures it out, tisk tisk...


Then don't make statements like this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut man is capable of manipulating nature and exploiting technicalities in its laws.


Technicalities? Nature isn't some written law with loopholes.

Man is capable of messing up the balance of nature, nothing more.
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby davep » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 14:20:28

A quick aside...

I haven't been following the share price of the oil companies, but I guess with a decreased price per barrel their stock will have gone down. Is now a good time to buy for those that missed the boat last time?

Edit: this is purely in the interests of securing my family's future. I'm not able to buy a farm cash at the moment...
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 15:50:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen you haven't been reading. Look in Depletion Modeling for Exxon 8% decline.

Currently, existing fields are declining at 4 to 5% with a trend toward 8% with some mature fields showing 14%.

We don't know what the decline rate will be.


I have to disagree with you on this Monte. Some fields are in natural decline, some are in accelerated decline, some are increasing production towards their plateau rate and yes there are other fields which are coming on stream during the period up through the first part of the next decade. Because of additional intervention beyond plateau rates higher decline rates can be offset for a period of time, a good example is Saudi Arabia where they stated this year that through reservoir management they believe they can keep overall declines to 2%. Also it is not as simple as saying that once peak is met that an 8% decline on all fields will ensue until the economic life is met. It really depends on what is happening during that period from peak (currently I am guessing at somewhere around 2013 to 2015) onwards. For instance peak production doesn't necessarily equate with half-life of oil reserves. Most fields are managed at production rates below maximum potential takeoff simply due to the economies associated with requirements for additional facilities and infrastructure. As a consequence a given field could cruise along at its most efficient plateau rate for a long, long time before half-life is met. An important side issue with this is that of reserve growth, simply being the movement of possible reserves to proven producing reserves categories. From what I have seen the reserves reported around the world early in a fields life are generally conservative simply due to stock exchange requirements, as time goes on the overall reserves increase, not because of physical magic but simply because of economic realities. This of course is not going to stave off a peak but it could very well result in a protracted peak or at the very least a much reduced decline rate, especially if there are additions, however small, through exploration over the next 5 - 10 years. Timing in all of this, however, is key. Just my tupence worth.
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 26 Oct 2006, 20:20:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen you haven't been reading. Look in Depletion Modeling for Exxon 8% decline.

Currently, existing fields are declining at 4 to 5% with a trend toward 8% with some mature fields showing 14%.

We don't know what the decline rate will be.


I have to disagree with you on this Monte.


Not sure what you are disagreeing with.

1. We sure don't know what the decline rate will be.

2. Existing fields are declining at 4 to 5%

3. Some fileds are showing 14%

4. There have been several articles on the trending 8%.

5. 70 divided by 8 = 8.75 years to lose 50% of production.

6. 50% of production in less than 9 years is surely "a geologic event of epic porportions."
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Mon 30 Oct 2006, 05:12:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, he cannot. He just thinks so from the temporary results of attempting to do so.


Extinction of millions of species over a few thousand years in the greatest mass extinction in this planet's history is anything but a temporary result of man's actions. It's forever. Man has indeed changed nature to a great extent already. Nature has merely adapted, but there is only so much it can do.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')an interferes with nature rather than try to live in balance with it. It's all hubris.


Not necessarily. There have existed many tribes that do live in balance with nature. It would be more precise to state that modern civilization doesn't try to live in balance with it. Dominionist societies derived from Abrahamic religions see man as being domiannt over Earth, as opposed to a part of or having originated from the Earth. THAT is the man that interferes with Earth and doesn't live in balance with it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')echnicalities? Nature isn't some written law with loopholes.


But it is certainly governed by many scientific laws and concepts we are aware of, and man is currently using this knowledge to manipulate this planet's assets to his own ends. We're using nature like a cheap skank. Turns out that she may not like it very much when she finds out.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')an is capable of messing up the balance of nature, nothing more.


Man is capable of practically destroying all complex lifeforms. All it takes is a large nuclear war, or perhaps a scenario such as runaway global warming from an endless positive feedback loop(think Venus).

Man is quite capabile of destroying this planet's biosphere. Whether or not man will, whether or not man will be rendered extinct before this can be done, or whether or not man will actually try to live in balance with this planet remains to be seen.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Mon 30 Oct 2006, 08:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', 'M')an is quite capabile of destroying this planet's biosphere.

Destroying? As in wiping out every living thing on and within the planet? Every bacteria, virus, and fungus throughout the atmosphere, soil, and oceans? No chance in hell, not even if we wanted to. The planet will eventually recover, whatever we do, within a few hundred million years. The planet isn't endangered. The biosphere as a whole isn't endangered. We are. Focus.

And regarding the mass extinctions that have taken place as a result of our actions? 99+% of all species ever to have existed have become extinct. And something else has eventually taken their place.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Tue 31 Oct 2006, 00:42:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')estroying? As in wiping out every living thing on and within the planet? Every bacteria, virus, and fungus throughout the atmosphere, soil, and oceans?


Theoretically, yes, depending on how severe global warming may become. Then there's hypothetical nano-technology extinction scenarios, but we're not at that level of technology yet even if the conceptual knowledge and theory may be there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he planet will eventually recover, whatever we do, within a few hundred million years.


Depends. Since the first prokaryotes are suspected to have existed existed 3.8 billion years ago, it took around 3 billion years for the first multi-cellular animals to evolve. If complex life were to be wiped out, by the time it may have normally evolved again, environmental conditions on the planet due to the sun being enlarged may not make it possible.

In some of the worst scenarios imaginable that man is capable of, it could literally require billions of years for a recovery, and the planet may not have enough time for that given constantly changing external conditions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd regarding the mass extinctions that have taken place as a result of our actions? 99+% of all species ever to have existed have become extinct. And something else has eventually taken their place.


While you are correct on the number of species who have gone extinct, they have done so by natural means. Either they died off due to evolving into something else, or failed to reproduce due to competition from other species.

But never has there been a species that is directly competing with all others and of can actually comprehend(even if only to a small extent) how life on this planet interacts, until homo sapeins arrived on the scene...


Needless to say, man is perhaps one of the most vulnerable species in existence today due to reliance on technology. But this same characteristic may also make mankind stronger, if used correctly.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Please Do Not Look at the Elephant

Unread postby napoleon » Wed 01 Nov 2006, 13:38:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'S')omeone please remind me again just what the difference is between the Peak Oil Doomsday Cult and all the other doomsday cults.

I've forgotten.


Oil production is a measurable phenomenon?


Yes, but it all depends on whose measurements you believe.


What is funny is that most 'measurements' are just speculation over the market and every bit as much 'superstition' as any other doomsday cult.

Idiots and morons always had a way to gather around for a common useless cause.
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Protected? Privacy in the United States

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Sat 02 Jun 2007, 21:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pparently, what happens in Vegas may no longer stay in Vegas.

This week Google Inc. has launched its latest feature on its online maps webpage, “Street View,” which allows people to zoom in on major public areas of cities such as New York, San Francisco, Miami and Las Vegas. Such street-level views allow visitors to the Google website to zoom in not only on the sights and attractions of America’s cities but also the people walking down the street going about their daily routine.

“Street View” gives people high resolution photos at street-level of major roadways in cities across the country, allowing for 360 degree view of the various sights. Users can zoom in and out of these shots of the street from different angles with ease, in order to get a real sense of what the area is like. According to Google, all photos were taken from vehicles driving along public streets during the past year and will be updated periodically to prevent against privacy intrusions. “This imagery is no different from what any person can readily capture or see walking down the street,” stated Google spokeswoman Megan Quinn in a statement reported by CBS News. However, should the photos featured online be seen as objectionable or if an individual sees themselves being featured in shots that they do not want published, the site is offering a “help” button which would allow users to request that images be removed. Google is also attempting to safeguard against possible privacy issues by avoiding potentially sensitive locations, such as domestic abuse shelters, by working through the Safety Net Project at the National Network to End Domestic Violence.

Despite these various measures to ensure people's anonymity and comfort about these “Street Views” and the fact that Google appears to be fully within the bounds of privacy laws because all pictures were taken in public places, many are still concerned about the tenuous ground the company is walking. “Everyone expects a certain level of anonymity as they move about their daily lives,” said Kevin Bankston in a CBS News report. “There is a certain ‘ick’ factor here.” Bankston is a staff attorney for the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a group which is devoted to protecting people’s rights on the Internet, and which believes that this newest innovation by Google provides “prime fodder” for debates over privacy issues. Bankston believes that Google should have blurred the images of pedestrians who were unwittingly captured in these street-level shots, before they were posted online, to prevent against any possible embarrassing or compromising situations. According to Bankston, “There’s a distinction between what Google has a legal right to do and what is the responsible thing to do.”
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Re: Tinfoil time: Google is in yer street, invadin yer priv

Unread postby PolestaR » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 01:15:59

It's a common tactic now for software companies to give a completely free piece of software away, with no "pro" version or anything of that sort - completely free. They do this for about 6-12 months getting the customer base up then it all changes, out comes the LITE version (a stripped down version of what you used to get for free) and the PRO version (the one you pay for which used to be free).

Google is following this exact formula for so many services I'm waiting for when it switches mindsets and starts to show its real corporate evil. Be wary.
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Re: Tinfoil time: Google is in yer street, invadin yer priv

Unread postby lotrfan55345 » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 01:53:13

I love that feature. You can go somewhere and see where exactly a store is!
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Re: Tinfoil time: Google is in yer street, invadin yer priv

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Sun 03 Jun 2007, 02:40:11

Oh yeah I love those hybrid satellite maps, you get the streets shown and named, but see the satt photo too, so you see, Oh yeah there's a bunch of big trees across the street and the building I'm looking for is pink.....
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Re: Tinfoil time: Google is in yer street, invadin yer priv

Unread postby gg3 » Mon 04 Jun 2007, 10:24:12

Yeah, wonderful. Great boon to stalkers, bombers, assassins, burglars, bankrobbers, kidnappers, etc. etc. Nothing like being able to "case the joint" by remote control, get all the little details, figure out the best place to plant the bomb or wait for the victim.

I'm told the Google cameras are stuck atop car roofs like oldschool cellphone antennae and look like little domes with lenses.

I wonder if they're susceptible to lasers or to EMP? It's too bad they're a moving target because they're undoubtedly susceptible to flying lead but one shouldn't go shooting at moving targets in crowded cities.

What's also needed is an R&D project for something that can create a kind of cloak of invisibility by projecting a false image of a place in a manner that's indistinguishable from a real image.

What's also needed is for someone to follow the CXOs of Google around with cameras and put up a website so you can watch all of their escapades. And when they object, tough shit, turnabout is fair play. They need a dose of their own medicine. Better yet an overdose that makes 'em puke until they get the message.
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