[Guest]

I think the personal attacks accusing people of intentionally sowing fear to profit from it are really quite inappropriate.

Have you taken even a minute to contemplate what you, so blithely, are saying and what it implies?

One, that individuals you, likely, have never met and may or may not have a complete picture of their perspectives or intent are deep down really callous and immoral-on what grounds? They are selling various books?

Two, that buyers or potential consumers for these books are too dumb to decide what they believe on their own but, you have somehow a better grasp on the truth and you are gonna set things straight. So write a book about it.

Three, that you've failed to grasp that, for better or worse(likely worse) profit equals awareness in this culture. If profit is being made on Peak Oil then people are learning about it. Nike is a word known the world over, but The Victory at Samonthrace is known to a far fewer number. One you pay for the other you look at for "free".

Would you consign the issue of Peak Oil to the narrow scope of the market that non or not for profit business models share and deny such a vital issue the vigorous dialogue that results when a product/issue/idea attains a visible market position?

We are all learning that the Invisible Hand is giving us the finger but if it is used to deliver the message of Peak Oil perhaps it will allow us to escape its grasping demise.

[nigel]

On the profiteering side issue - I thought I had made my position clear:
1. I see nothing wrong with making an honest profit.
2. I do have a problem with creating panic for profit.
3. I believe the social management of profit is necessary (think monopolies and social taxation). I mention this for completeness.
4. I apologised for traducing those with purely altruistic motives.
5. I did not restrict my criticism of money making to books. I had in mind petroleum industry consultancy fees and the internet.

As to the world's population being able to individually reassess their own individual plans, this appears to me to be either an overdose of wishful thinking or a myopic focus on the self-centered delusion of self-preservation. The problem has to be tackled by societies, by all of us. I remember nutters running off to build their own nuclear bomb shelters under isolated houses - how stupid was that? Besides the nuclear winter did they really imagine that their 300,000,000 short-sighted fellow countrymen weren't going to turn up sooner or later to ask for a share of their stash of tinned beans? I strongly suggest that all those who are preparing for a future living in caves go and do so now.

Those who over-consume and live on debt will get hit sooner or later under any scenario. Recessions happen which increases capacity and reduces consumption. How can anyone really know what will be discovered? I find this whole approach perplexing. The conrucopians say we will find more large reserves, the Malthusians say we won't. That's helpful?

And just to give those Americans worrying about the cost of petrol/gasoline some food for thought, yesterday I passed a petrol station
in central London (England!) selling unleaded for 84pence Sterling per litre. How does that figure in dollars per gallon in the USA? What do you pay?

And by the way, I do not live in a cave!

[OilBurner]

As a quick reference. 84p per litre = 3.81 per gallon.
However US gallons are not the same as UK gallons, it's rougly 3.785 litres instead of 4.546 litres.
Therefore, it's about 3.17 pounds per US gallon, the current exchange rate is about 1.83, so that's about 5.81 dollars per US gallon we pay in the UK.



That also explains why our European eyes pop out when we hear of US fuel economy figures - if they were in imperial gallons instead of US gallons, the figures would sound much better.
I.e. 25mpg (US) becomes 30mpg for us Euro types.

[nigel]

Oil Burner - I thought leaving our American friends to calculate that we pay $5.82 per US gallon might give them pause for thought. If they paid as much tax as we did they might waste less and spend the tax on public transport and energy research then the peak oil horizon might vanish into the distant haze. If they did that, the distant haze might also go..

[OilBurner]

I'm pretty certain average mpg figures would shoot up in the states if they paid the same level of tax as we do.
The demand for oil would drop a large amount if new car sales shifted towards vehicles like we drive.
No need for hybrids, hydrogen, air power etc etc. Just smaller cars with smaller engines, and we can afford to fill them up without too much of a struggle, even at nearly $6 a gallon!

However, the idea of all the tax money going into alternative fuels investment seems a distant dream.
For instance, in 2001 Tony Blair promised a measly 100m pounds in investment:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1205018.stm

That compares to around 22 billion pounds raised in 2000 from fuel duty:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/925315.stm

It would be nice if there was a tax on aviation fuel here too, apparently that could raise 9.2 billion pounds a year:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/1205018.stm

Wouldn't it be great if all that was spent on improving the energy return from PVs or Wind Turbines?

p.s. sorry about jumping the gun on the fuel price conversion - I couldn't resist, as last time this came up, people got the figures all wrong and it didn't seem that bad in comparison.

[nigel]

Oil Burner - Point taken about the potential for US gallon confusion.

I voted for Tony Blair - I wish that was also a distant dream!

Sitting under the Heathrow flightpath, some 7 miles east - I wish they'd tax aviation fuel too. They could spend some of that £9.2bn on a few wave power generating barrages and a SE London tube!

Can anyone imagine the Americans, who consume over 25% of the world's oil, voting to tax themselves off the habit? As I intimated at the start of this, American culture is a large part of the problem. Perhaps I should change tack and suggest they all panic, drop out and rush off to live like Thoreau in their glorious countryside? What say you?

[OilBurner]

American culture certainly needs to be questioned. The impression I get is that many Americans seem to consider it their birthright to drive large engined V8 trucks. No matter how much more efficient these get by using hybrid technology, you simply cannot beat a small hatchback with a diesel engine. Add a hybrid to that and you're really talking. If Ford can get 42 US MPG out of a huge SUV, imagine would they could do if they made the Focus TDCI (that's diesel to non-car buffs) with a hybird electric engine? 100mpg could be possible or better.

To be fair though, I'm a bit of a petrolhead myself and would love a big, powerful petrol engine. Two things stop me, one is environmental concern, the other is cost. I don't think I'm unique in Europe in buying a smaller, more economical car because fuel costs are so high, as those that can afford it are still buying great big 4x4s.
As most people don't seem that bothered about taking personal responsibility (a generalisation yes, but likely to be broadly true), tax or very high fuel costs will be the only certain method of changing the culture.
Like you say though, there's no political will for higher taxation and the fuel costs are still relatively low, so barring mass desertion of the cities for the caves, not much will change.

[Pops]

So if the point is that people are panicking and running for the hills I don’t know who that is - aside from John, who may well have other motives as well. Matt still lives near San Francisco, Mad Scientist has lived in a rural area for years, and I’m taking advantage of the real estate bubble to buy a retirement home with no mortgage.

While it is true many people are talking about impending doom, from the posts on the Assessments and Plans thread (http://www.peakoil.com/postt321.html) not many people are doing anything drastic. Mostly “planning for as many things to happen as possible, even if what happens is nothing”.

My assessment is that way before the actual decline of oil becomes a problem; there will be big economic dislocations from multiple bubbles and shrinking reserve capacity. It simply makes no sense to me, to recognize there will be a huge transition down the road and not prepare to keep ones children fed. Whether its saving money, learning to garden, paying down debt, whatever your situation warrants and your budget allows.

It is much easier to ridicule people for attempting to make prudent preparations for what most here agree will be inevitable hardships of one kind or another, than it is to get off the internet, look at ones own vulnerabilities and actually do something.

[nigel]

Pops - play fair! You Yanks constitute 5% of the world's population and waste/consume 25%+ of the world's oil. I'm delighted some of you are finally getting a grip on reality. If you read some of the postings on this site one would think you were the victims rather than the primary cause of the waste. The selfish survivalists make me sick. What about the rest of the human race?

Personally, I'm delighted some Americans are waking up to at least ONE of the potential global disasters on the near horizon.

If my vote counted for anything I would want Americans to travel while the gas lasts and see what is actually going on in the world. I worked with some USA Peace Corps people in the Third World 1975 and they were the salt of the earth - there are not enough Americans like them.

As to peak oil panic - read your National Geographic June 2004. No-one has a clue as to when the peak production will occur. 2006 - 2040?

Personally, I have more faith in your Mr Ahlbrandt than our Mr Campbell who has predicted the end since 1989 - and counting. What he's counting I leave to your imaginations.

In any time, under any circumstances, living under piles of debt is
for the birds. I have never ridiculed sensible living.

Won't anyone admit what they pay per US gallon in US dollars?

Ashamed? So you should be. It won't be you, (or me), who dies first from the rising price of oil.

Little wonder that that maniac Bin Liner hates us.

[Pops]

Nigel, I can see this will be on of those omnibus rant threads like the Bunker thread.

Earlier you said; “My single point was 'don't panic'.” I thought I made an argument that while some are exploring Doomer scenarios; there isn’t much evidence that many (here at least) are panicked.

I even offered a link to a thread where people here have said what it is they are doing; did you see any panic there? It doesn’t appear so to me.

Now you tell me I should be ashamed of myself for paying $2.30 for gas, wasting the world’s endowment, not wasting more by touring Africa, and not playing fair.

If playing fair means responding to an argument with an off-topic rant; then you are right; I concede the rest of my bandwidth.


For now.

[Aaron]

A reminder that America does a large share of the "heavy lifting" in several key industrial sectors, including billions in exported goods and services. All these industries require massive amounts of energy to support. While Americans do enjoy the inertia of a robust economy and a high standard of life, the per capita consumption isn't measured at my meter...

[Guest]

2. I do have a problem with creating panic for profit.

Nigel,

I don't really think this happens unless maybe a Goverment, or Big Big media or corporate players do it.

True PANIC is, in fact, by its nature, self-limiting.

I'm all too well aware how wasteful I am and I sure hope I don't run into anyone after the crash that is as mad about it as you appear to be.

Unless they happen to be God, in which case I have faith he will take a long-term and balanced view of my life and culture, not just my energy effeciency.

[The_Virginian]

Nigel,

We can't get a straight answer about 9/11, let alone about Oil from either the house of Saud, or the US gov. Oil is thicker than blood. Much of both has been spilt for naught.

Hidden reserves, quite possible, how substantial they would be is very questionable, I suppose enough to run the kingdom into the ground before the princes flew off to exile.

I understand the strain European governments put on the common folk. Sometimes it may even be justifiable like with petrol. recently in Virginia, they had a referendum on whether we should raise the state sales tax by one percent in order to IMPROVE the roads (so they claimed!). It was defeated by a 68% margin. (I voted against as well @ 3 years ago, besides we all know more roads = more trafic in the end from increased cars etc. etc.)

American HATE taxes...the Hanovarian kings learned that well. It is counterproductive to tell us otherwise...even if you are 100% correct.

As for americans consumption... Consumption is the engine of fiat currency, Growth is needed to prop up a fake (non gold backed) Dollar (even when the growth itself is often faked).

These are things that no amount of whining to my "congress-critter" will change.

Pax.

[nigel]

Pops - ticking me off again. Well deserved, I'm sure.

Guest - OUR whole consumer way of life has a distinct lemming feel to it. If we meet in the dire circumstances you imagine I'm sure we'll agree to share out the beans 50/50.

Aaron - American generosity is everywhere, no question about that. But the waste! Are you giving back as much as you take out – ie supporting the energy need equivalent of what – 1.5bn people? (I don't know how to answer for my own excess x% either so it was not just a cheap shot).

Virginian – The Saudi’s made a concerted effort to rebut Simmons and he sets out a much more positive appraisal in World Energy Vol 7 No 1 2004 than one might have expected from him. Your Mr Ahlbrandt seems like an honest man, he worked in Saudi, knows the Saudis who were in the delegation who visited the US recently to discuss their reserves and he feels comfortable with his projections. His figures have been used to show (Nat Geog 6/2004) that the world outside the Middle East/North Africa peaks in 2023 and world with ME/NA peaking in 2040.

2040 is 36 years away – to the peak. On that basis, I still think it fair to say a lot of the talk on Peak Oil revolving around disaster preparations is premature and panicky.

I don’t know anyone who likes being taxed.
Are not taxation and civilisation inextricably connected?

[NevadaGhosts]

Seems that more and more average people are beginning to get worried and panicky about the quickly rising oil and gasoline prices. Check out this Yahoo thread regarding rising oil prices article:

Yahoo news article: link

Thread and posts in response to article: link

Here are some posts from that thread which mention peak oil/etc:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')EAKOIL!!!PEAKOIL!!!!!PEAKOIL!!! by: ganadoboy_2004 03/18/05 04:38 pm, Msg: 510 of 1028:
He// oil will be $90-100 a barrel by next summer and $150-180 the summer after. Gas will be over $3.00 a gallon by next summer, and $5.00 the summer after. Tough sh*t for humans, oil only lasts for a certain time, and with pretty much no alternative energy in place we are screwed WEll, see ya back in the stone age in about 10 years.

[NevadaGhosts]

And here's another thread regarding this article:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&n ... gas_prices

Article thread:

http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?acti ... tart=18172

I quoted some of the smart posts. Didn't quote any of the stupid ones:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')e're running out of oil
by: laidback643 (M/CA) 03/20/05 10:18 pm
Msg: 17877 of 18175

The writing's on the wall... you can outsmart the populace, pretend peak oil is still years away, blame it on doom-sayers... but the market knows better... listen!!

[savethehumans]

I think the American people scare me as much, if not more, than the American government and/or the Globalized Oil & Gas companies. They are going to believe ANYTHING but the truth--because the truth stares them in the face every time they look in a mirror, and you can't have THAT, now, can you?

I'm really, really afraid of what a panicked American population is going to do....

[clv101]

There does seem to be a reasonable degree of understanding in many Internet forums. Just go to a random forum and search of peak oill - there's often a thread.

[BorneoRagnarok]

Sorry to hijack your thread for my personal rant. The panic do happens here in East Malaysia. Complaints about higher costs of living, increasing random crime rate, homeless rate, massive credit cards debts, Big Brother.

I had to post something before I got killed. Random killing is popular now.
Yesterday , someone got killed over a parking space. They are fighting for a free parking space. If I don't post here for 3 months in a row, administrator of this forum can consider me dead and append (Deceased) to my nickname.

Car culture is killing all of use. One at a time.

[NevadaGhosts]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BorneoRagnarok', 'S')orry to hijack your thread for my personal rant. The panic do happens here in East Malaysia. Complaints about higher costs of living, increasing random crime rate, homeless rate, massive credit cards debts, Big Brother.

I had to post something before I got killed. Random killing is popular now.
Yesterday , someone got killed over a parking space. They are fighting for a free parking space. If I don't post here for 3 months in a row, administrator of this forum can consider me dead and append (Deceased) to my nickname.

Car culture is killing all of use. One at a time.