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Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby Evltre » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 17:45:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')Again, keep reading and posting and try to ignore the more caustic remarks.


The best way to avoid caustic remarks is to do your homework before posting, spend some time reading the various threads here...and, most importantly, provide links to sources to back up your claims.

Otherwise, why should we just rehash ground already covered ad naseum?


what a terrible attitude - not everyone is an expert on research techniques - lots of people come quickly to "conclusions" about how we are going to escape PO - is it so hard to show a few manners when someone is making their first post? Maybe they haven't "found" the info you discuss yet, maybe this is their first "gut response" - are you saying people shouldn't post until they are "experts"? If you don't want to answer because it's rehashing stuff then don't. There is going to be a continuous in flow of people into this forum - all asking questions and with hopeful ideas of what is going to save us all - yes they need to read more, but being so rude and "superior" isn't exactly going to encourage someone to stick around and find out.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 17:53:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', ' ')As for MQ, he wrote:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')As building contractor, I can tell you it came from people building swingsets in their backyards that weren't safe. Building permits exist for two main reasons; safety and uniform construction standards.


Those are the two main reasons?

Hah! MQ, that is, by far, the stupidest post you have ever made.



You posit that requiring permitts so that safety and uniform building standards can be inspected is not enough reason to warrant them?

They would exist if their were no property taxes.

Who's being stupid here?
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby UncoveringTruths » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 17:59:53

Who's going to be the post peak building inspector?
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:00:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Evltre', ' ')what a terrible attitude - not everyone is an expert on research techniques


Lame response. You don't have to be an expert to take time to read a little before posting.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')elect the most appropriate Forum in which to post your message. Try to make sure someone else has not already started a discussion on the same subject before you post. If someone has already started a discussion/topic on a particular subject or article, please post your information in a reply instead of starting a new topic.


If people don't like having their feet held to the fire, don't post. I spent two weeks reading this site before posting. Results? My very first post is still on the front page after 2 1/2 years.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:04:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby Evltre » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:04:08

MQ, the first person to respond did a great job of pointing those things out without being so hostile. Was it really necessary to add your 2c worth in when some one had already done a good job of it, in a friendly and polite way?
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby threadbear » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:06:41

Speaking of permits. A couple of years back when I lived in Washington state, I rescued a baby crow. When I phoned the fish and wildlife people to try to find out where I should take it, or at least what I should feed it, they were really silly. There only concern seemed to be that I didn't have a permit to keep a crow!! As if I wanted to keep it. It pooped everywhere!
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:09:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Evltre', 'M')Q, the first person to respond did a great job of pointing those things out without being so hostile. Was it really necessary to add your 2c worth in when some one had already done a good job of it, in a friendly and polite way?


I think so. The post was so fraught with errors, misconceptions and void of any data to support it.

It is too easy to just post such a thread and not do any homework.

It also reeks of nationalism, like the energy problem only needs to be solved in the US and UK. That attitude just doesn' t set well with me, thus my curt response.

I wish to discourage such wastes of time.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:59:00, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby mkwin » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:10:31

People are pessimistic because they believe people won't be motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.

Its obvious government will take the lead and correct the markets failure to provide an energy system. Executive powers will be passed to secure all the reserves the government needs for core activities including the establishment of the energy bridge system.

This type of government lead action is being demonstrated in a minor way in the UK recently. The government has announced plans to fast track large infrastructure projects through the planning (zoning) process thereby stopping objections to the projects. At the same time it announced a new generation of nuclear plants.

I've been anticipating the peak for a number of years and I’ve watch oil prices rise from less than $30 a barrel to nearly $70 with little or no impact on global growth. Doesn't it seem as oils ability to slow the global economy has weakened due to the deflationary effect of globalization? Doesn't this 'buy' us some time before we descend into acute stagflation?

“Seriously, MQ hit it - you haven't read this site well enough or thouroughly enough if you still are clinging to the false hopes listed in your first post.”

False hopes? I’m not talking about Nuclear Fusion or some great technical advancement of fuel cell technology. In the worst case I’m talking about burning coal and gas of which we (UK) have an abundant supply. In the case of gas, from Norway, Russia and the North Sea all delivered by pipeline.

The bottom line is we will be forced to accept the new energy system by our government public opposition will become irrelevant the political elite on both sides of the political spectrum will support the same policies.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:22:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I')ts obvious government will take the lead and correct the markets failure to provide an energy system.


Yes, so far we have invaded a sovereign nation.

Have you not read the Hirsch Report? You feel that peak oil is 10-20 years away?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been anticipating the peak for a number of years and I’vewatch oil prices rise from less than $30 a barrel to nearly $70 with little or no impact on global growth.


You are kidding, right? Increasing debt to defray rising costs does not an economy make. The Refi-ATM is history. Financial speculation, not the real growth in goods, services and wages, has been responsible for 40% of GDP growth. All debt and illusionary asset inflation.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the worst case I’m talking about burning coal and gas of which we (Europe) have an abundant supply.


Fine for Europe. What about the rest of the world?

The latest study shows a peak of coal in 15 years.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:28:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', ' ')The problem will be transport. The solution will be simple. Walk to work.


Good grief. I don't believe you thought that one through...and transportation is the big issue with peak oil.

Please explain how someone can walk 150 miles each way to work as many commuters do?

Much less 5.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby threadbear » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:37:53

The optimist thinks we live in the best possible world. The pessimest fears it's true.

Many posters on this forum aren't quite this bad, but some are resistant to any notion that a muddle through scenario, is possible. It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off. It's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.

There is a boatload, a cargo container full of really great information on this site, unfortunately much of it rests on shakey assumptions

Mkwin--Be patient. History will prove you are probably correct and what is happening in the UK right now, with the fast tracking of infrastructure, will eventually happen in the US.

There is still tremendous amounts of private equity floating around the globe, looking for a home. Right now much of it is tied up in the shares of Big Oil, war profiteering, and derivatives schemes. But just wait.... Can't you just see all the American auto companies, jumping onto the green bandwagon after they get all of their suv's off the books? Follow the money, honies. What about companies like Exxon. What would prevent them from slowly getting into nuclear generation? The govt doesn't have to take on all the burden
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off.


No, it is ignorance of biology and the sequel to overshoot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.


I would say it is, beings that there is no evidence to support such claims.

You have been asked to put up or shut up before on this.

You chose to shut up.

What is your response this time?
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby mkwin » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 18:58:12

Monequest - No one commutes 150 miles in Europe unless by train. The majority of people are in walking/bike distance.

Coal peaking in 15 years?? Do you have a link to this information? I can't remember exactly but the last figure I saw was an estimated 300 years potential supply.

Your comments about recent economic growth are true for the US and to a lesser extent the UK but not continental Europe (circa 2% growth), Eastern Europe (circa 5% growth), and Asia ex Japan (circa 7-10% growth). Also, the inflationary pressures current being experienced in the UK and previously in the US are more attributable to growth in money supply than oil. At the peak of the oil crises in the 70's oil was $80 dollars by today’s time adjusted value of money. We are not far of that peak and inflation is 2-3% based on CPI.

The US has other options. To start with many you have to improve your energy efficiency. You use twice the energy per person than Europeans while we live a comparable (better in some cases) quality of life. 20 mpg for a new car is appalling. In addition to conservation you have good wind resources and strong solar potential in your southern states and a LNG infrastructure could be built within 5-7 years. This has already started in Mexico.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby threadbear » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:02:17

"Put up or shut up". MQuest

Articulate, reasoned, nuanced and engaging response. Why would anyone be turned off this forum? I just don't get it. :lol:
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:02:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'P')eople are pessimistic because they believe people won't be motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.


No, people are pessimistic because they know people haven't been motivated to change and we're going to fall of a cliff.

We needed to start this transition 20 to 30 years ago while fossil fuels were abundant and cheap.

Time to transition has run out.

We may not have time left to cope and adapt.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby bshirt » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:05:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bshirt', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'B')uilding permits exist for two main reasons; safety and uniform construction standards.


You forgot the third and most important reason....."to insure contractors get their $$$".


Your ignorance is showing.

If it has roots in anything covert it is to insure real estate values don't drop due to shody and unsafe building practices.


Folks like you can rationalize "anything" to insure you get your turn slobbering at the public trough.

So, you're justifying I can't put a swing set in my own backyard because only "you" or other "contractor" can do it safely and/or correctly? In addition, even though it's my swing set on my own property?

I say bullsh*t to both of the above.

The bottom line is that folks like you "love" endless bureaucracy ( restrictions, requirements, permits, etc)....so that "you" have to hired.

Enjoy your pork now, comrade.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby mkwin » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:08:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', ' ')It's not naive, foolish, irresponsible to think that the energy crisis might not terminate in a die off.


No, it is ignorance of biology and the sequel to overshoot.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's also not naive, foolish, ridiculous to imagine that the oil corporations might be closing down some refineries unnecessarily to drive up oil prices, making supply problems appear worse than they actually are.


I would say it is, beings that there is no evidence to support such claims.

You have been asked to put up or shut up before on this.

You chose to shut up.

What is your response this time?



I think using the analogy of the behavior of animals in bio-systems is quite weak when applied to humans. By virtue of our intelligence we have the ability to engineer nature and are therefore not bound, to a certain extent, by the natural laws affecting other forms of life.

In regards to the lack of refinery capacity, this has been widely reported but I doubt its to a conspiracy between the seven sisters it's more likely due to the lack of investment that occurred in the 80's due to the collapse in the oil price in the early 80's.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby Pixie » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:14:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'M')onequest - No one commutes 150 miles in Europe unless by train. The majority of people are in walking/bike distance...


Untrue in the USA. The USA is much less densely populated than Europe, especially in the West, and the social trend has been for the wealthy to move further and further away from their work.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')Coal peaking in 15 years?? Do you have a link to this information? I can't remember exactly but the last figure I saw was an estimated 300 years potential supply..


There is a document to this effect referenced on this forum. It was put together for the US Government. You are confusing "peaking" with "running out." Plus, the 300 year potential supply does not take into account that the best coal has already been taken out of the ground. The same document noted that, in terms of quantity of energy, coal had already peaked in the USA, despite the fact that the total amount of coal ore continued to grow.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
')The US has other options. To start with many you have to improve your energy efficiency. You use twice the energy per person than Europeans while we live a comparable (better in some cases) quality of life. 20 mpg for a new car is appalling.


Absolutely agreed. Doesn't change the fact that this is the legasy we are stuck with, and it takes some 9 years to turn over the automobile fleet.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', '
') In addition to conservation you have good wind resources and strong solar potential in your southern states and a LNG infrastructure could be built within 5-7 years. This has already started in Mexico.


Once again, as soon as the USA starts importing LNG, you Europeans can kiss your natural gas supply goodbye. A huge percentage of that supply you reference will be exported to the USA to run our factories and grow our crops. Globalism is not your friend.
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby mmasters » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:16:34

The exact mechanisms of manipulating oil may not be easily provable (just like how the fed manipulates the stock market is not easily provable) but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen (or it isn't plausible).
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Re: Overly pessimistic on Peak Oil?

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 01 Jun 2007, 19:16:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '"')Put up or shut up". MQuest

Articulate, reasoned, nuanced and engaging response. Why would anyone be turned off this forum? I just don't get it. :lol:


Oh, do you need it explained to you?

Provide evidence to support your claim.

Your opinion alone does not begin to win a debate, unless you are an expert on oil refining operations, which I doubt you are.

You have been asked with an articulate, reasoned, nuanced and engaging response before and you chose to not back up your claims.

"Put up or shut up" seemed easier for you to grasp.

So, what's it going to be?
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